Where’s the Top of Natural Gas?

[errolanderson]

Strong recent gains in natural gas . . . . This appears driven by several factors.

1. It’s cold out there. This blast of extreme cold encompasses nearly all of North America. 2. The U.S. is experiencing a propane shortage. This is now impacting grain drying. 3. Technicals are bullish. Dec nat gas has charged from $2.40 to $2.85 per gigajoule. Purely technical, but a break above $2.95 suggests a move toward $3.20 per gig. 4. U.S. fracking profitability is in-decline. This will produce less natural gas.

Finally, there is a commodity that is beginning to excite investors. Natural gas con tracts are huge, 10,000 gigaojoules per contract.Futures are too dangerous to touch given massive contract size. For hedgers and speculators, call options may be a safer consideration.

[farming101]

3.20 possible by year end. That would be the limit. I think.
In the new year there is a path for 3.20 plus

A retrace to sub 2.70 to fill the gap would limit highs before year end to about 3.00, maybe

Of course, for farmers, the day when NG correlated to the price of fertilizer is over. Fertilizer is a rip off

[farming101]

Island reversal. 3.00 will be top for 2019, I think, maybe
A close under 2.60 for a couple days would really take some wind out of the sails

2.629 to be precise