Who Do I Believe?

[ajl]

Are you young and have good job prospects? Pull the pin. The high cost of land is a signal that there is no opportunity. Every opportunity that exists has players competing over it. I farm marginal land because there is no opportunity to get the better stuff as I have not inherited any of it. If you can inherit some good land you can leverage it for more. Combine marginal land with the worst weather this area has seen for the past number of years and returns to production are minimal at best. What keeps me going is being 50 with poor job prospects as I don't have any in demand unique skills and few contacts. Most farmers are in that boat as well, they, just think themselves more valuable than they are. Most farmers are land speculators and returns on land speculation have been spectacular as governments print money and that is what drives most investment decisions. Most of the money I made over 20 years of farming has been land inflation even though I don't own a large land base. Things do happen over the years like getting an oil well which has helped a lot of farmers over the years including me on one occasion. The high flyers all have secrets to their success and it has little to do with hard work and good farming. Right place at right time is a lot of it. Guys farming across the road from me used to own that land, now investors do. 4 JD S680 combines look impressive in the field together though. Guys have gotten land from relatives etc. so there are all sorts of secrets to success. I have over the years learned a few of these and as I said earlier it is never better production practices or hard work.

[Quadtrack]

Interesting question zeefarmer. And some good advice from others.
I know it’s tempting, but one really has to not look at what some of the BTO are doing and pine for that. Pretty sure it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Several around me are on marriage 2, or 3 or none. Not that a successful marriage is essential for a successful life, but for some of us it’s highly important. As is our relationship with our children.
Who do you believe? You have to believe in yourself and have a long term belief in what you are doing. Personally, I have much more satisfaction in owning some land, and having paid for it, than renting thousands of acres and leasing a bunch of equipment and orchestrating a van load of employees to operate it all. You just gotta decide what really your goals are and how to achieve them. Or try to achieve them-it doesn’t always go as planned.
Successful farmers (and people) I’ve observed commonly know what they want and have a plan to get there. And they stay somewhat nimble, so as to adjust or change course if needed. I think a number of BTO have got themselves on a treadmill that is going faster and faster and it’s not easy to jump off. Maybe that’s success for them? Not for me.
Best of luck to you, and stay in primary agriculture if you truly like it.

[Guest]

And it kinda grows on you after awhile , and you cant imagine doin anything else !

[GDR]

When I read things on Agriville, I get the feeling that most believe western Canadian agriculture as we know it is poised to fall apart at the seams. That the days of yor were the best ever and one should get out while the getting's good.

Then I hear about local land happenings, and think that the individuals involved must not frequent Agriville often.

So, who's right?? Should a young(er) guy like myself cut and run, or push all in?

Lots of good comments here, I often feel discouraged here by farmer posts and Errols posts even though I enjoy them and respect them (most anyhow). Pretty hard to stick your neck out with a doom and gloom attitude.

What I believe is all farmers are optimists by nature because we have to be. Often our culture projects an outward negative attitude and I find myself projecting that at times. Grass isnt always greener on the other side. Shit happens and things often dont work out like you planned but time heals all wounds. The first signs of life (even plants)in the spring seems to bring enthusiasm, anticipation and excitement of what is to come.

It boils down to what and where you want to be. There will always be opportunities, they just may not be doing what everyone else is doing. If you like it you will succeed, if you hate what you are doing then quit. If you need to spend and grow just leave some room for the "what ifs" and if the deal isnt right dont worry another will come along.

Basic answer to your question is listen to yourself!