Weakening Earnings, Slowing Manufacturing, No Trade Deal = Record Equities

[ajl]

I would not read too much into holiday shortened trading session. USDX is still in the range that it has been for a long time although a little weaker. After being on a tear for the past 4 years it does stand to reason that the US economy will slow in 20. China will sign the trade agreement this weekend, as they stand to gain a lot. Making further progress will unfortunately prove difficult because the Chinese have to learn to live up to their end of the bargain. The other issue is where will China get all that $USD needed to fund their commitments. They have gargantuan debt to service and now have commodity purchase commitments although much of that will be favoring US sources at the expense of others. Watch 10 year bond rates in 20 as the Chinese will have to liquidate some more treasuries to fund their $USD commitments so maybe we will see slightly higher interest rates this year.

[errolanderson]

U.S. manufacturing ISM index for December just released showing the 5th straight month of declines and the slowest U.S. manufacturing reading since June 2009. U.S. companies are now clearly in-contraction mode. U.S. Dec job creation reported today posted at 145,000 jobs vs est @ 160,000 jobs.

Meantime, back at the ranch . . . Fed money printing (QE4) propelling U.S. stock markets to historic record-breaking highs on a daily basis into 2020 . . . no stopping this bull as full-blown central bank manipulation in-play. The Dow Jones now threatening to break above an amazing 29,000 points . . . . Analyst talk of a 32,000 point Dow.

go figure . . . .

[bucket]

U.S. manufacturing ISM index for December just released showing the 5th straight month of declines and the slowest U.S. manufacturing reading since June 2009. U.S. companies are now clearly in-contraction mode. U.S. Dec job creation reported today posted at 145,000 jobs vs est @ 160,000 jobs.

Meantime, back at the ranch . . . Fed money printing (QE4) propelling U.S. stock markets to historic record-breaking highs on a daily basis into 2020 . . . no stopping this bull as full-blown central bank manipulation in-play. The Dow Jones now threatening to break above an amazing 29,000 points . . . . Analyst talk of a 32,000 point Dow.

go figure . . . .

Is this the 1929 run-up all over again?????

That history always refers to?

[sk_wheatking]

It is also strange that the fall of the Loonie was predicted, yet it is rallying.

I know, I cant figure that one out either. We should be at 65 cent dollar in all reality but our dollar gets stronger every week!

[macdon02]

I know, I cant figure that one out either. We should be at 65 cent dollar in all reality but our dollar gets stronger every week!

We are riding on coat tails. The run up in crude and the fact our rates haven't gone negative, yet.

[MBgrower]

Is this the 1929 run-up all over again?????

That history always refers to?

its been a fun ride up, the question is when to get out? Is 2020 the year to cash out and move out of equities? That is my plan, at least for now.

[biglentil]

Politicians are pushing for lower rates to continue to drive the-flock toward equities that provides the ongoing artificial lift to already high corporate valuations. But a serious side issue that may come to haunt us all is; the-flock is piling into riskier and riskier investments.

And lower rates are also driving the current deflationary wave in markets (IMO). Cheap money promotes a higher debt load. And more debt is a direct enemy to inflation. You need less debt to kickstart inflation and allow rates to rise.

This current financial situation is simply unsustainable (IMO). The system could implode and then the finger pointing begins in-earnest . . . .

Lower rates causes deflation now? Thats a new one. I guess in an upside down financial system anything can make sense.

[sumdumguy]

They’ll have to rewrite the Macro texts cause the graphs are backwards. 🤔

[errolanderson]

Apparently, the Fed just hit the STOP BUTTON on their money printing presses. ‘Market manipulation’ may now have to meet ‘economic reality’ face-to-face very soon. Fed suddenly lowered their balance sheet . . .

Get your popcorn, then strap-in . . . this may be interesting.

[agstar77]

Trump only has to keep the bubble from bursting till November.