Weakening Earnings, Slowing Manufacturing, No Trade Deal = Record Equities

[MBgrower]

Is this the 1929 run-up all over again?????

That history always refers to?

its been a fun ride up, the question is when to get out? Is 2020 the year to cash out and move out of equities? That is my plan, at least for now.

[biglentil]

Politicians are pushing for lower rates to continue to drive the-flock toward equities that provides the ongoing artificial lift to already high corporate valuations. But a serious side issue that may come to haunt us all is; the-flock is piling into riskier and riskier investments.

And lower rates are also driving the current deflationary wave in markets (IMO). Cheap money promotes a higher debt load. And more debt is a direct enemy to inflation. You need less debt to kickstart inflation and allow rates to rise.

This current financial situation is simply unsustainable (IMO). The system could implode and then the finger pointing begins in-earnest . . . .

Lower rates causes deflation now? Thats a new one. I guess in an upside down financial system anything can make sense.

[sumdumguy]

They’ll have to rewrite the Macro texts cause the graphs are backwards. 🤔

[errolanderson]

Apparently, the Fed just hit the STOP BUTTON on their money printing presses. ‘Market manipulation’ may now have to meet ‘economic reality’ face-to-face very soon. Fed suddenly lowered their balance sheet . . .

Get your popcorn, then strap-in . . . this may be interesting.

[agstar77]

Trump only has to keep the bubble from bursting till November.

[bucket]

Apparently, the Fed just hit the STOP BUTTON on their money printing presses. ‘Market manipulation’ may now have to meet ‘economic reality’ face-to-face very soon. Fed suddenly lowered their balance sheet . . .

Get your popcorn, then strap-in . . . this may be interesting.

And who do you think will be hurt the worst.....do you think Bill Gates or Warren Buffet give a shit about the people that will be hurt by everyone facing the hard times coming...

Who do you think worked their asses off to make those guy's companies successful....the average guy that goes to work everyday to earn enough to buy food and a roof...enjoys watching their kids grow....

So the best I get out of your downer posts ....is to kick the average hard working joe in the nuts and wishing for it ...

[errolanderson]

And who do you think will be hurt the worst.....do you think Bill Gates or Warren Buffet give a shit about the people that will be hurt by everyone facing the hard times coming...

Who do you think worked their asses off to make those guy's companies successful....the average guy that goes to work everyday to earn enough to buy food and a roof...enjoys watching their kids grow....

So the best I get out of your downer posts ....is to kick the average hard working joe in the nuts and wishing for it ...

My apologies for offending you bucket with my downer posts. Economic reality is a tough pill to swallow by the general public, but nothing will change the outcome . . . even my posts.

[bucket]

My apologies for offending you bucket with my downer posts. Economic reality is a tough pill to swallow by the general public, but nothing will change the outcome . . . even my posts.

You don't offend me and neither do your posts...its a conversation....I am a little blunt....but the question remains...

Who gets hurt the worst by an economic downturn?????

[TechAnalyst]

Ignoring dangers only makes them more dangerous, it doesn’t make them go away.

There are far too many fundamental and technical warning signs of significant trouble ahead for the stock market to get into in this forum but the risks appear to be very real.

No matter how you take Errol’s posts, he is trying to make you ask yourselves the tough questions.

Am I young enough that a 50% plus loss in stock market values like that seen just over a decade ago won’t matter because I can wait for a recovery? Or am I close enough to needing those investment proceeds for retirement that it would be devastating? After such a good run, should I get more defensive in my portfolio allocation or simply take some profits and do something safe with the cash? Should I at least carry some protection in the form of put options? These are the type of discussions that the warnings should prompt.

Food for thought….

[SASKFARMER]

So transfer profit out of shares held in Tax-Free and leave in Cash in that account. Then take all investments in stocks and let sit in savings (in Credit union because all your deposit is covered).

[TASFarms]

So transfer profit out of shares held in Tax-Free and leave in Cash in that account. Then take all investments in stocks and let sit in savings (in Credit union because all your deposit is covered).

How does the govt bail in policy work for tax free savings. They keep sliding that bail in policy in the budget

[SASKFARMER]

I'm sure when we get like Greece was a few years back they will take money out of every one account nothing will be sacred except liberals with Cayman bank accounts.
hahahaha

[biglentil]

The Fed can't tighten everyone knows it, their back is against the wall. The mainstreet economy is already on death's door. Went on a roadtrip down the I15 stopped at empty shopping malls and stayed at 3 star hotels with pool, hot tub and free breakfast the whole way down for $40 a night. Parking lots virtually empty and reeking of desperation. Which room would you like? Take your pick .

They won't let the repo market seize up, thats what caused the 2008 crisis. Especially with the geopolitical rhetoric in high gear do you honestly think they will allow the mighty US to look weak? Everyone relax, the can will be kicked down the road for some time.

[tweety]

PIGS debt is all yielding less than 1.5%.

Dow P/E of 19:1

S&P 500 P/E of 20.5:1

Nasdaq of 31.5:1

...

Nothing to see here 🤷

Same as what it has been. Spike in 2007 to 65

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

[errolanderson]

Since the Fed started up the printing presses last September, the FANG tech stocks soared 60 percent of their annual 2019 gains. The Fed is flooding the market with liquidity.

Yet, U.S. unemployment claims have risen for the past 12 weeks. The consumer spending spree continues to hold up the ship, but consumer debt load continues to rock higher (record breaking). Meanwhile, manufacturing is in a serious slowdown from too high USD and tariff backdraft (IMO). And gov’t spending, good grief . . . .

Believe repo loan crisis initiated the liquidity flood, but it appears to be a desperate attempt by the Fed to stoke inflation. Deflation is a death wish for central bank policy. Central bankers have no answer for this.

Gold is attempting to rally on geo-political jitters, but in my view precious metals still remain in an overall longterm bear market. Realize this is contrary to internet chatter. But there is risk of heavy setbacks in this space (IMO). Deflation is alive and well, despite central bank desperation policy attempting to run ahead of the debt crisis and sweep this crisis under the rug . . . . This has failed miserably.

I am posting this information as a ‘real concern’ for business. Debt no longer generates growth. When debt is no longer an asset and becomes a liability, this is a serious problem. As a Morgan Stanley VP stated recently, “Everything in the financial system is broken”
An unstoppable changing of the guard ahead . . . .