Soybean market on fire

[ajl]

Soybeans have added 0.16 US per bushel over the last two trading sessions. Need beans? Well the US is the only store that is open. This proves that China has lost the trade war of its own making, and most of our US counterparts are doing very well this year thank you. I was accused of being wrong on that topic bu the Trump derangement syndrome contingent on here. Soy prices in Southern Ont directly impacted by US prices are between 11 and 11.50 per bushel right now to get some perspective. It also looks like the availability of South American beans for export is a lot less than there crop size would indicate and China is continuing to buy as many US beans that it can possibly afford. So a trade deal would not impact US exports and there is nothing to be gained by the US dropping their tariffs.

[Agvocate]

Vicentin is facing a cash crunch and stories out they are unable to pay customers... Also lending some support to the meal side of the market.

Vicentin is an Argentinian agro-industrial company active in textiles, agriculture, and agricultural products. It is a major player in the Argentinian soy market with a significant market share for soy crushing. The company’s three crushing facilities have an annual capacity of just under 10 million metric tons as of 2015. Vicentin is also one of the largest exporters of soy from Argentina and among the top ten from Paraguay. Additionally, the company is involved in biodiesel production with a daily production of 500 tons and has a feed lot holding 20,000 heads of cattle.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Does anyone have info or a graph on the historical spread between canola and soybeans? Seems to me they have typically been closer than they are today?

January CBOT Soybeans are $8.85 before basis.
January Canola on Winnipeg Commodity Exchange works out to $7.83 USD per bushel as of today.

That is a 13% premium for soybeans. And by reading NAT, it seems they have very good, or even positive basis in places.

January basis for posted bids locally works out to about 60 cents, and we are typically one of the stronger areas of the prairies.

With strong crush margins(double last year at this time, last I checked), and exports above year ago levels, last I checked, seems to be a case for canola price to strengthen as well wouldn't it?

[Agvocate]

I don't have a chart on hand, but it can swing wildly. A decade ago when oil was leading the charge higher canola was a huge premium to beans in $US/MT futures to futures. When protein is leading the market beans can be a premium to canola. Add into that political trade warfare and the spread can move hundreds of dollars a metric tone back and forth.

[furrowtickler]

Sure hope soybeans go to $15 / bus so I can break even on mine lol .
Soybeans and corn will be interesting to watch the next 60 days .
I thought for certain a rally would have happened back in early November but enough corn and beans were still coming off in the US to keep the market happy

[TASFarms]

The longer it takes to rally the higher it will go. Wetter bias forecast for the northern states. They are wetter than last year at this time,plus there lots of crop out. Might be hard to have another record acres of corn and beans.

[farmaholic]

I would sure like to grow soybeans but don't hear alot of success stories about them outside their tradition growing areas.

[dalek]

Sure hope soybeans go to $15 / bus so I can break even on mine lol .
Soybeans and corn will be interesting to watch the next 60 days .
I thought for certain a rally would have happened back in early November but enough corn and beans were still coming off in the US to keep the market happy

$15 would be nice. The first half of mine averaged 12 bu, the second half are under 8” of snow for the second time this year

[Guest]

$15 would be nice. The first half of mine averaged 12 bu, the second half are under 8” of snow for the second time this year

is there still a chance you can get them ? , a friend i talk to often around london, Ont. just finished his corn

[burnt]

Some soys came off over the weekend - no dust flying. A neighbor who toured to Chatham on Saturday said that one field he saw being harvested had water standing between the rows.

According to an elevator employee, one BTO in southern Ontario filled a couple of their silos with 28% soys on the weekend. The same chap said he wasn't sure how those would come out but they were about to try, 3 or 4 days after.

Lots of horror stories this fall. First time in over 40 years of farming that all my corn went grade 4 and 5. And one of the lowest yields I've had in that entire time.