Soybean market on fire

[ajl]

Soybeans have added 0.16 US per bushel over the last two trading sessions. Need beans? Well the US is the only store that is open. This proves that China has lost the trade war of its own making, and most of our US counterparts are doing very well this year thank you. I was accused of being wrong on that topic bu the Trump derangement syndrome contingent on here. Soy prices in Southern Ont directly impacted by US prices are between 11 and 11.50 per bushel right now to get some perspective. It also looks like the availability of South American beans for export is a lot less than there crop size would indicate and China is continuing to buy as many US beans that it can possibly afford. So a trade deal would not impact US exports and there is nothing to be gained by the US dropping their tariffs.

[Agvocate]

Vicentin is facing a cash crunch and stories out they are unable to pay customers... Also lending some support to the meal side of the market.

Vicentin is an Argentinian agro-industrial company active in textiles, agriculture, and agricultural products. It is a major player in the Argentinian soy market with a significant market share for soy crushing. The company’s three crushing facilities have an annual capacity of just under 10 million metric tons as of 2015. Vicentin is also one of the largest exporters of soy from Argentina and among the top ten from Paraguay. Additionally, the company is involved in biodiesel production with a daily production of 500 tons and has a feed lot holding 20,000 heads of cattle.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Does anyone have info or a graph on the historical spread between canola and soybeans? Seems to me they have typically been closer than they are today?

January CBOT Soybeans are $8.85 before basis.
January Canola on Winnipeg Commodity Exchange works out to $7.83 USD per bushel as of today.

That is a 13% premium for soybeans. And by reading NAT, it seems they have very good, or even positive basis in places.

January basis for posted bids locally works out to about 60 cents, and we are typically one of the stronger areas of the prairies.

With strong crush margins(double last year at this time, last I checked), and exports above year ago levels, last I checked, seems to be a case for canola price to strengthen as well wouldn't it?

[Agvocate]

I don't have a chart on hand, but it can swing wildly. A decade ago when oil was leading the charge higher canola was a huge premium to beans in $US/MT futures to futures. When protein is leading the market beans can be a premium to canola. Add into that political trade warfare and the spread can move hundreds of dollars a metric tone back and forth.

[furrowtickler]

Sure hope soybeans go to $15 / bus so I can break even on mine lol .
Soybeans and corn will be interesting to watch the next 60 days .
I thought for certain a rally would have happened back in early November but enough corn and beans were still coming off in the US to keep the market happy

[TASFarms]

The longer it takes to rally the higher it will go. Wetter bias forecast for the northern states. They are wetter than last year at this time,plus there lots of crop out. Might be hard to have another record acres of corn and beans.

[farmaholic]

I would sure like to grow soybeans but don't hear alot of success stories about them outside their tradition growing areas.

[dalek]

Sure hope soybeans go to $15 / bus so I can break even on mine lol .
Soybeans and corn will be interesting to watch the next 60 days .
I thought for certain a rally would have happened back in early November but enough corn and beans were still coming off in the US to keep the market happy

$15 would be nice. The first half of mine averaged 12 bu, the second half are under 8” of snow for the second time this year

[Guest]

$15 would be nice. The first half of mine averaged 12 bu, the second half are under 8” of snow for the second time this year

is there still a chance you can get them ? , a friend i talk to often around london, Ont. just finished his corn

[burnt]

Some soys came off over the weekend - no dust flying. A neighbor who toured to Chatham on Saturday said that one field he saw being harvested had water standing between the rows.

According to an elevator employee, one BTO in southern Ontario filled a couple of their silos with 28% soys on the weekend. The same chap said he wasn't sure how those would come out but they were about to try, 3 or 4 days after.

Lots of horror stories this fall. First time in over 40 years of farming that all my corn went grade 4 and 5. And one of the lowest yields I've had in that entire time.

[Oliver88]

Some soys came off over the weekend - no dust flying. A neighbor who toured to Chatham on Saturday said that one field he saw being harvested had water standing between the rows.

One BTO in southern Ontario reportedly filled a couple of silos with 28% soys on the weekend. An elevator employee said he wasn't sure how those would come out but they were about to try, 3 or 4 days after.

Lots of horror stories this fall. First time in over 40 years of farming that all my corn went grade 4 and 5. And one of the lowest yields I've had in that entire time.

Do you put suplemental heat through aeration fans to dry soybeans?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Do you put suplemental heat through aeration fans to dry soybeans?

Perhaps the terminology is different in the east, but when I hear silo, I think of really tall bins originally intended for silage. And if you filled one of those, I can't imagine any fan being powerful enough to overcome that kind of back pressure. Let alone enough volume to dry with supplemental heat. But then I've never dealt with soybeans, being a big seed, they may have a lot more voids, and much better airflow than what we are used to?

[burnt]

Do you put suplemental heat through aeration fans to dry soybeans?

I would think they would have to dry them with heat at those levels. Being an elevator, they would run that quantity through a dryer.They would go for crusher beans though, I'm quite sure.

In my experience, I've only had to take them down 3 points at the most (last year), which I managed to do throughout the winter with just air on the rights days and nights with a close eye on humidity. They went in at 16.8, came out at 13.5, which I attribute more to good luck than good management, LOL!

Food grade soys - which mine are - can only be air dried to avoid seed coat damage, I'm told. But I know guys with stirrator/dryer bins who turn on just enough heat to take it up to 90F, and still got the premium.

It really all depends on how badly the buyer needs the beans. I know, I know - shocking.

[burnt]

Perhaps the terminology is different in the east, but when I hear silo, I think of really tall bins originally intended for silage. And if you filled one of those, I can't imagine any fan being powerful enough to overcome that kind of back pressure. Let alone enough volume to dry with supplemental heat. But then I've never dealt with soybeans, being a big seed, they may have a lot more voids, and much better airflow than what we are used to?

You would be correct. These silos are concrete and huge, often 100' or more in height and some unbelievable diameters now. Big fans on them, but there's got to be a limit of how much air they can push through beans that wet. The guy who told me about those wet beans coming in was not smiling when he said it. I've seen wet crap sit in a truck or wagon for a couple of days and had to get in and kick it out.

An example of a big silo - my sons are electrical contractors and built PLCs for an elevator some distance from here, plus did the wiring. The latest silo the chap added is 86' diameter by 130' high. Supposed to hold well over 1/2 million bushels of corn.

His unloading pit is a massive cavern over which 2 semis can park, side by side. It takes it away fast enough that they can both open their hoppers and dump at the same time and then move forward to open their second hopper.

You gotta wonder just how big and fast it can get.

[dalek]

is there still a chance you can get them ? , a friend i talk to often around london, Ont. just finished his corn

I’ve seen them stay out all winter without too much loss. At this point I’d prefer to just let them rot and avoid the harvest costs but I’m sure crop insurance will want me to at least make it look good. Sounds like a couple days of rain and +10 next week, maybe if the snow melts the ground will freeze before any more comes