Like it or not, climate change will change your farm, say two experts

[farming101]

The Peace area made it to 67.7% completed harvest this year as of Dec 3.
https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/af95ff5b-f8cc-4fd9-9bd6-e2642816028e/resource/d0d9166b-444a-4bb5-9a15-e18a3d467869/download/af-crop-report-2019-12-03.pdf https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/af95ff5b-f8cc-4fd9-9bd6-e2642816028e/resource/d0d9166b-444a-4bb5-9a15-e18a3d467869/download/af-crop-report-2019-12-03.pdf

Then this story hits the news. On Dec 3. Too funny. I'd laugh if I could only stop crying.
Every time these experts open their mouth they put their foot in it. Both feet actually.

Yep, palm trees in Fort Vermilion. It's a given. Climate change you know

[chuckChuck]

Chuck, after posting enough historic weather data on here to write a paperback, you must have a
estimate on the amount of human activity that is responsible for the climate being cooler, warmer, dryer, wetter, stormier, windier, tidier, snowier, fireier, which leads to smokier and ultimately to taxier.

I've asked you before, but what % would you say . . . 1 - 10, 10 - 30, 30 - 60, 60 +

How about . . . 1 to 10 with 10 being completely responsible, keeping in mind all the natural cycles that occurred throughout history.

I would just be guessing but I would say it is 80% human caused and 20% natural since the start of the industrial revolution in the mid 1880s. Land surface changes like deforestation and desertification also play a role. But that is a good question for a climate scientist.

For the previous post it is important to keep in mind that normal variability is also a factor from year to year. And colder than normal seasons can still occur even when long term changes are apparent with climate change.

Some scientists are saying persistent weather patterns are driven by a sluggish jet stream that is blocked because of a smaller differential between the arctic and mid latitude temperatures.

More extremes are also to be expected with a changing climate. I think that is what Philips was saying, we are already seeing far more extreme weather events including unusual cold spells.

[rumrocks]

Thanks for the estimate, my estimate is similar numbers but in reverse positions but given accurate information I am flexible.

[furrowtickler]

Yup need to grow 85 day crops here now as the season is nearly a month shorter the past two years than normal.
Was there not a general frost in Alberta last year ?

[furrowtickler]

Is the growing season actually longer , or are the crops simply taking way longer to mature because of cooler summers? And are those areas simply extremely lucky that they did not receive normal frost dates the past two years ?
There have been an a lot of very late crop in many areas in western Canada that got extremely lucky with later frost dates .
There are many areas the past two years that have been hit with late frosts in spring and early frosts in fall that will completely dispute what Phillips says .

[seldomseen]

In your cut and paste story it says we are growing longer season crops but makes no mention of the breeding of shorter season corn and soybeans. Every year they shorten the maturity and they are still not ready for Sask. What have acres of those crops done in Western Canada the past year after they were tried even with the short season variety's
I am not sure what the last couple of years were like for you but every early summer spraying is always a challenge dodging frost and this August very close to freezing on many nights.

[bucket]

My soybeans and flax will sit out this winter along with 70 percent of my durum...I am just one happy guy...


Never left a crop out on my operation nor do I remember dad ever leaving a crop out....

Longer season????maybe but considerably lower GDD this year...

[Guest]

How in gods green earth is it a longer growing season?
Froze every month here but july , and lotsa areas froze in july also ??
Are these ****ers that are saying this all stoned ????? Or drunk ??? Or just stupid ???

[AlbertaFarmer5]

To be fair and balanced, I keep picking on Chuck for his lack of credibility, so I need to call out all of the other posters on this thread who deny any type of change, since it really isn't helping the credibility of the side who has evidence and science on their side. Don't lower yourselves to Chucks level.

I highly recommend watching Murray Hartman's presentation on 110 years of Lacombe weather(or it may be updated to 112 years since I saw it and discussed it with him 2 years ago). His conclusion was that weather has improved by every possible measure in the 110 years. I have brought this up in previous threads, but as usual, Chuck only considers it valid information if it comes from one of his approved sources, so it was ignored until today.

The article in the cut and paste, conveniently neglected to mention the remainder of Murray's findings. From what I recall Extreme hot days, extreme cold, extreme rainfall, dry periods, rogue frosts, hail, have all been declining over the length of the records, in complete disagreement with the alarmists who promised more of all of them. Heat units have not improved nearly as much as the growing season length, mostly due to the fact that day time highs temperatures haven't increased nearly as much as night time. And obviously it is the higher night time lows that stretch the effective growing season out. And the frost free period has been almost entirely in the spring, not the fall, consistent with the observations of some posters here about falls not improving.

When I check my own area from 1950 to 2010: http://albertaclimaterecords.com/ http://albertaclimaterecords.com/ About 60 km west of Red Deer if you want to check it yourself.
Our growing degree days greater than 5C have hardly increased at all (either side of 2%), yet our growing season has increased by between 10 and 15 days, almost entirely in the spring, not the fall. Lacombe has seen even more dramatic change in the same period as Murray Noted, and evidently he has added Fort Vermillion to his presentation and it has increased even more yet. And the Lacombe research weather station is one of the few that doesn't suffer from Urban Heat Island Effect, and has been in the same location all along, so is more reliable than almost every other record, which is why he chose it.

I don't doubt that at all, based on anecdotal evidence.

Those are genuine changes in weather in western Canada, all for the better, and over a long enough period to be considered climate as opposed to weather. Results may vary in your precise location. Take the time some cold spell this winter to check the records for your area, and see if they reflect these results.

As for David Phillips, he has written books and calendars about extreme weather of our past. Cognitive Dissonance is the only explanation for his views on modern extreme weather. I get the impression that he fully understands, but plays along to get along.

[fjlip]

"I would just be guessing but I would say it is 80% human caused and 20% natural since the start of the industrial revolution in the mid 1880s"

For F*CKS sake you are dumber than a post, YES guess is all you people do and think it's carved in stone/gospel/infallible! Get a brain for crying out loud! No proof , No evidence, no past predictions happened, you are totally discredited! Go away