Like it or not, climate change will change your farm, say two experts

[fjlip]

To be fair and balanced, I keep picking on Chuck for his lack of credibility, so I need to call out all of the other posters on this thread who deny any type of change, since it really isn't helping the credibility of the side who relies on evidence and science.

I highly recommend watching Murray Hartman's presentation on 110 years of Lacombe weather(or it may be updated to 112 years since I saw it and discussed it with him 2 years ago). His conclusion was that weather has improved by every possible measure in the 110 years. I have brought this up in previous threads, but as usual, Chuck only considers it valid information if it comes from one of his approved sources, so it was ignored until today.

The article in the cut and paste, conveniently neglected to mention the remainder of Murray's findings. From what I recall Extreme hot days, extreme cold, extreme rainfall, dry periods, rogue frosts, have all been declining over the length of the records, in complete disagreement with the alarmists who promised more of all of them. Heat units have not improved nearly as much as the growing season length, mostly due to the fact that day time highs temperatures haven't increased nearly as much as night time. And obviously it is the higher night time lows that stretch the effective growing season out. And the frost free period has been almost entirely in the spring, not the fall, consistent with the observations of some posters here about falls not improving.

When I check my own area from 1950 to 2010: http://albertaclimaterecords.com/ http://albertaclimaterecords.com/ About 60 km west of Red Deer if you want to check it yourself.
Our growing degree days greater than 5C have hardly increased at all (either side of 2%), yet our growing season has increased by between 10 and 15 days, almost entirely in the spring, not the fall. Lacombe has seen even more dramatic change in the same period as Murray Noted, and evidently he has added Fort Vermillion to his presentation and it has increased even more yet. And the Lacombe research weather station is one of the few that doesn't suffer from Urban Heat Effect, and has been in the same location all along, so is more reliable than almost every other record, which is why he chose it.

I don't doubt that at all based on anecdotal evidence.

Those are genuine changes in weather in western Canada, all for the better, and over a long enough period to be considered climate as opposed to weather. Results may vary in your precise location.

As for David Phillips, he has written books and calendars about extreme weather of our past. Cognitive Dissonance is the only explanation for his views on modern extreme weather. I get the impression that he fully understands, but plays along to get along.

Thank you for the Cognitive Dissonance! Typical weather scientist!

[LEP]

There was something that I remembered from an interview of David Phillips from way back. I had to check wikipedia. He isn't a climatologist. He took geography at University. He admitted that he was hired to be a spokesman not formulated weather models.

Another of chuck's "experts".

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Also, to all of the posters who just dismissed Murray Hartman based only on the fact that Chuck made reference to him( and honestly given Chuck's track record, that is probably a safe assumption), but as usual Chuck has no idea what he is talking about. He is not a member of Chucks climate cult, not torturing or hiding data, and making apocalyptic predictions. Murray has a very good graph showing Alberta Spring wheat yields and CO2 together. Not surprisingly, they follow an almost identical curve. He states that by all measures weather has improved for growing crops in central AB. These are not the tactics of a science denier like Chuck always worships, but a realist who took an unbiased look at the data.

I recently accused Chuck of ignoring scientific literature just because a website he doesn't like made links to the peer reviewed papers. We can't be guilty of the same crime, just because Chuck mistakenly cut and pasted information by someone doesn't make them guilty of the same crimes as Chuck and his fellow alarmists.

[GDR]

Also, to all of the posters who just dismissed Murray Hartman based only on the fact that Chuck made reference to him( and honestly given Chuck's track record, that is probably a safe assumption), but as usual Chuck has no idea what he is talking about. He is not a member of Chucks climate cult, not torturing or hiding data, and making apocalyptic predictions. Murray has a very good graph showing Alberta Spring wheat yields and CO2 together. Not surprisingly, they follow an almost identical curve. He states that by all measures weather has improved for growing crops in central AB. These are not the tactics of a science denier like Chuck always worships, but a realist who took an unbiased look at the data.

I recently accused Chuck of ignoring scientific literature just because a website he doesn't like made links to the peer reviewed papers. We can't be guilty of the same crime, just because Chuck mistakenly cut and pasted information by someone doesn't make them guilty of the same crimes as Chuck and his fellow alarmists.

Gotta agree, the article wasn't really that bad, not a fan of Phillips generally but this article wasn't that off base. And as AB5 said in his other post Lacombe data is likely about as good as it gets, lots and lots of ag research and investment there going way back. I bet thwir equipment and records were much more accurate than most places.

And the frost free days they talk about are killing frosts, pretty common here to have those 0 degree nights with a light frost every month of the growing season.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Gotta agree, the article wasn't really that bad, not a fan of Phillips generally but this article wasn't that off base. And as AB5 said in his other post Lacombe data is likely about as good as it gets, lots and lots of ag research and investment there going way back. I bet thwir equipment and records were much more accurate than most places.

And the frost free days they talk about are killing frosts, pretty common here to have those 0 degree nights with a light frost every month of the growing season.

Even David Phillips takes a very balanced approach, acknowledging the benefits we have already accrued, and speculating that there will be more benefits than detriments into the future. But he really should have either read his own prior works, or talked to Murray before making the unscientific statements about weather extremes, wild swings, increased variability, whiplash etc all being much worse now. Murray's graphs show exactly the opposite to be true, with much worse extremes early in the record. Particularly summer frosts, extreme temperatures, drought, and prolonged wet spells.

[rumrocks]

Gotta agree, the article wasn't really that bad, not a fan of Phillips generally but this article wasn't that off base. And as AB5 said in his other post Lacombe data is likely about as good as it gets, lots and lots of ag research and investment there going way back. I bet thwir equipment and records were much more accurate than most places.

And the frost free days they talk about are killing frosts, pretty common here to have those 0 degree nights with a light frost every month of the growing season.

If it came from Alberta the data wouldn't be tainted by Catherine.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

If it came from Alberta the data wouldn't be tainted by Catherine.

I failed to ask him if he was able to access the original records, or if the only records available were the new and improved versions, adjusted and homogenized to fit the latest political agenda. I suspect it was the former.

The AlbertaClimateRecords.com website obviously contains a lot of homogenization. The gaps, both spatially and in time in the weather records are massive. I've tried to compile data to graph my own area from Environment Canada records, and there are entire decades missing, station moves, and closures, plus some highly suspect values. I needed to bounce between stations within a 100km radius to even come close to finding a complete record. Even today there are days with no data. The grid resolution on their site is generous considering the number of stations that exist, or ever existed. It is great information to have to get a general idea, but it indicates an accuracy that just isn't justified.

[evonmipsets]

We are the only generation that can help to control climate change. After us, there is no generation that can stop the climatic change. So this is real and everyone needs to take part in this situation. Protect the world, protect the mother nature

https://www.mozzec.com/ https://www.mozzec.com/

[furrowtickler]

A fair and balanced approach would be to recognize that other areas have shorter growing seasons . The world does not revolve around Alberta .
Also having lower GDD is not a good thing

[grefer]

We are the only generation that can help to control climate change. After us, there is no generation that can stop the climatic change. So this is real and everyone needs to take part in this situation. Protect the world, protect the mother nature

https://www.mozzec.com/ https://www.mozzec.com/

If climate change is so real and the total destruction of earth is imminent,dont you think stopping the insane use of highways to transport goods instead of rail would be something that would just be imposed. When I see governments just tinkering around the edges with things like carbon tax and then supposedly refunding it back it becomes quite obvious that they dont truly believe the world is about to end either. Its just the most politically correct thing to do at the moment. In my lifetime it is my observation that our wonderful leaders seldom Act they only React to public opinion. I guess then that makes them followers not leaders.

[jazz]

This env canada bozo sounds just like my city neighbors. Rains for a month then the first sunny day ask me if I am done.

Just because the snow is off the ground doesnt mean thats a longer growing season. Just because first frost has moved doesnt mean that either. Sure you can go ram it in there April 25th if you want but that doesnt do you much good when it freezes May 15th. Most farmers are wary of early frosts which happen every year so they time it so the crop is usually still unemerged before those periods come.

Around here IF any one goes super early its because they have 20,000 acres to put in because surprise we drove off all the farmers from the land.

Actual growing season is a combination of day time temps GDD, soil temps, moisture, humidity, germination.

Like if you are going to publish some stupid article about farmers go and talk to a few of them first instead of beating yourself off to the data stations then looking for ignorant fools like chuck to eat up your findings.

[chuckChuck]

Both Hartman and Philips agree the climate has changed. The data backs that up.

Philips also pointed out that some regions will have some benefits and some countries and regions will see severe consequences.

I doubt that Australia will benefit from a hotter and drier climate considering they are already very dry and hot.

Climate change is a global issue so what happens in your backyard is only a small part of global climate change.

Much of the change occurs gradually over many many years. What happens in our short lifetimes doesn't tell the whole story. Most of us will be long gone before a lot of the severe consequences occur.

[seldomseen]

Chuck what are you talking about? I thought it was a climate emergency and we have to take immediate action or the results will be catastrophic!!!!

[bucket]

Both Hartman and Philips agree the climate has changed. The data backs that up.

Philips also pointed out that some regions will have some benefits and some countries and regions will see severe consequences.

I doubt that Australia will benefit from a hotter and drier climate considering they are already very dry and hot.

Climate change is a global issue so what happens in your backyard is only a small part of global climate change.

Much of the change occurs gradually over many many years. What happens in our short lifetimes doesn't tell the whole story. Most of us will be long gone before a lot of the severe consequences occur.

So with that logic chuckchuck maybe the cause of the current so called crisis/emergency start long before man was here....

Sometimes you have to read what you write and use your brain....

BTW will the deaths that occurred on that new Zealand island with the volcano be caused by climate change or stupidity?

[jazz]

Both Hartman and Philips agree the climate has changed. The data backs that up.

So if glorified weathermen can chime in on this topic and the data backs it up, then I will give it all the weight and seriousness of their 3, 5 and 7 day forecasts, which is basically zero.

Hey but thanks for the consensus. A consensus of fools is still a group of fools.

I will believe climate change when I am planting 2 crops a season and not before.