Why is wheat not moving or is it the Sleeper of 2020

[jazz]

russia is a notorious fall dumper that's why Canada shouldn't sell s bushel before Q1. They are trying to source supply for the spring period. Russia probably sold out. Aussies and US low supplies.

Maybe my BTO neighbor is Russian cause he empties those bags right after he fills them.

[Bowerpower]

I do think there is a story here. Wheat to the moon if northern hemisphere planting troubles.

[SASKFARMER]

Wheat in Europe is dealing with a very warm winter so far. If a polar vortex comes down and hits it hard it will have some issues with frost tolerance.

China has the potential for lots of Yellow rust in its wheat.

Just a heads up.

I sound like Don. It has to go up and really only did once in my lifetime to the moon.

[bucket]

So again, what would you do with this information? I can’t digest what we already get. If I’m checking basis and spreads and running the farm I’m maxed out.

Be careful what you wish for. More published information might just benefit customers or competitors more than the farmer.

A few questions ....

1. What do american farmers do with information like knowing forward sales....
2. And Port prices
3. Basis helps only if can look at port prices compared to prairie prices and looking at freight rates...to know if you are getting ripped off...


In other questions why can't you sign the spreads on grades when you sign a forward contract....in this day and age they still use 1950 contracts on grade and protein....

Where is the CGC for updating the industry....

[Braveheart]

A few questions ....

1. What do american farmers do with information like knowing forward sales....
2. And Port prices
3. Basis helps only if can look at port prices compared to prairie prices and looking at freight rates...to know if you are getting ripped off...


In other questions why can't you sign the spreads on grades when you sign a forward contract....in this day and age they still use 1950 contracts on grade and protein....

Where is the CGC for updating the industry....

I farm on the border and have lots of farmer acquaintances across the line. They don't pay any attention to port prices. Never mention them. They look at local basis as different delivery points there can vary a lot. My more advanced "marketing" US neighbours use puts and calls, but not so much futures contracts. Their biggest concerns are usually around supports. The Renewable Fuel Standard, Prevent Plant, programs to offset goofy Trump's failed trade war, (but they love Trump), etc.

The spreads in my post were spreads between futures months. I'm not sure if grade spreads can be written into contracts as there's no way for the risk (of changes) to be laid off.

[bucket]

I farm on the border and have lots of farmer acquaintances across the line. They don't pay any attention to port prices. Never mention them. They look at local basis as different delivery points there can vary a lot. My more advanced "marketing" US neighbours use puts and calls, but not so much futures contracts. Their biggest concerns are usually around supports. The Renewable Fuel Standard, Prevent Plant, programs to offset goofy Trump's failed trade war, (but they love Trump), etc.

The spreads in my post were spreads between futures months. I'm not sure if grade spreads can be written into contracts as there's no way for the risk (of changes) to be laid off.

Fair comments ...do they watch for the MFP payment come and laugh at canadian farmers?

They have a good idea of their returns in the worst case situation as opposed to canadian farmers that have no coverage....That would be OK if we didn't price off their subsidized exchanges....

[Braveheart]

Fair comments ...do they watch for the MFP payment come and laugh at canadian farmers?

They have a good idea of their returns in the worst case situation as opposed to canadian farmers that have no coverage....That would be OK if we didn't price off their subsidized exchanges....

Farmers there don't laugh. They genuinely like to understand our industry, but I suspect it's to watch closely in case there's something they can countervail. They do think we have the weakest crop insurance programs there could be ( right on that account).

I don't know about subsidized exchanges. However, futures exchanges everywhere need to shorten trading hours. No more overnight trading sessions. Exchanges are open now for too long and it allows our 24/7 news feeds to fatten out the peaks and valleys of futures prices as there's time to digest news without reation.

[bucket]

Farmers there don't laugh. They genuinely like to understand our industry, but I suspect it's to watch closely in case there's something they can countervail. They do think we have the weakest crop insurance programs there could be ( right on that account).

I don't know about subsidized exchanges. However, futures exchanges everywhere need to shorten trading hours. No more overnight trading sessions. Exchanges are open now for too long and it allows our 24/7 news feeds to fatten out the peaks and valleys of futures prices as there's time to digest news without reation.

If you dump 30 billion dollars into the market to help farmers ...you have a subsidized exchange....the graincos absorb that into their bids....

But the US farmer has some support.....we just get the lower prices....

And we have no Food Aid Export Program that keeps the money at home....and the grain moving....off topic....

[malleefarmer]

Isn’t the current wheat Surge entirely because of Argentina wheat tax ?
The downward pressure from accelerated Argentine export sales has gone now that they are moving to actually raise export taxes.
Argie was a bit like Aussie single desk just get rid of it, our AWB was lowest denominator in wold makers, sadly been proving and admitted since its demise but history been gone for what 15 yrs here?

So to me what’s happening last few days is a weak seller driving market down has dropped out.

[furrowtickler]

Hey Tom 👋. Got a question for you as a seed growing in a high rain area this fall .
Does low falling number in wheat affect germination as well ?
Just thinking of wheat in many areas that is getting severely discounted , does it still maintain “quality” certified #1 for $15 / bus?
Just curious is all ......