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    Fertilizer thoughts

    Has anyone heard anything substantive to the possibility that Morocco will withdraw from the global phosphate market until prices appreciate? One local supplier is saying that their access to book new phosphate shipments has been halted until they can figure out Morocco's direction. Another hasn't heard a whiff...

    What is spring availability of product looking like? In the areas with late harvest's there likely was a noticeable decline in fall fertilizer laydown. Im guessing that the majority of those fertilizer laydowns would have been anhydrous? If guys didn't get it down in the fall, will they stick with anhydrous ahead of the drill, or switch to dry granular? If so, is that going to put a strain on the logisitics involved with sourcing granular N in the spring?

    With a hot trucking market right now in western canada, I doubt that there will be alot of Canadian trucks lining up to take up the slack on the Pocatello phosphate haul. This happened back in, i think it was 2013... The input suppliers were short of phos, and we volunteered 5 super-b's to turn and burn non-stop to pocatello for phos. We'd slip seat drivers and run 24/7 if the price was right. Comparable per mile rate to what we were passing up at the time would have made the run worth ~$100/mT. Suppliers said they would only pay $60, which is what they had paid all year for US trucks like Pol**** and Sanchez to bring it up. We passed, as did MANY others, and so many went without phos. Are the stars aligning for a similar situation again? Companies are rating broker loads at $8/loaded mile right now and getting it no questions asked. When I quit commercial hauling, I was averaging $2.21/running mile... probably 2/3 loaded. You do the math... Guys are not going to pass up $8/mi to go pull out of Idaho for $3/mi!

    Prices have been drifting lower, but enough guys are starting to bite I think... Has a floor been set?

    #2
    I bought myself an early Christmas present this wk .... fert!! Needed to buy before year end.
    Retailers say it’s slow .... sitting for the phone to ring. Was “happy” with the deal I struck, still overpriced considering commodity prices.
    Take Jan-Feb, but I want it home by mid Jan.
    Prices will drop now that I bought ..... no different than selling something, it usually goes up next day.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by helmsdale View Post
      Has anyone heard anything substantive to the possibility that Morocco will withdraw from the global phosphate market until prices appreciate? One local supplier is saying that their access to book new phosphate shipments has been halted until they can figure out Morocco's direction. Another hasn't heard a whiff...

      What is spring availability of product looking like? In the areas with late harvest's there likely was a noticeable decline in fall fertilizer laydown. Im guessing that the majority of those fertilizer laydowns would have been anhydrous? If guys didn't get it down in the fall, will they stick with anhydrous ahead of the drill, or switch to dry granular? If so, is that going to put a strain on the logisitics involved with sourcing granular N in the spring?

      With a hot trucking market right now in western canada, I doubt that there will be alot of Canadian trucks lining up to take up the slack on the Pocatello phosphate haul. This happened back in, i think it was 2013... The input suppliers were short of phos, and we volunteered 5 super-b's to turn and burn non-stop to pocatello for phos. We'd slip seat drivers and run 24/7 if the price was right. Comparable per mile rate to what we were passing up at the time would have made the run worth ~$100/mT. Suppliers said they would only pay $60, which is what they had paid all year for US trucks like Pol**** and Sanchez to bring it up. We passed, as did MANY others, and so many went without phos. Are the stars aligning for a similar situation again? Companies are rating broker loads at $8/loaded mile right now and getting it no questions asked. When I quit commercial hauling, I was averaging $2.21/running mile... probably 2/3 loaded. You do the math... Guys are not going to pass up $8/mi to go pull out of Idaho for $3/mi!

      Prices have been drifting lower, but enough guys are starting to bite I think... Has a floor been set?
      Lots of guys like myself buying this week for tax reasons. Urea down $20 locally from last week to $470. Overall my blends are cheaper than last year at the same time.

      Unharvested acres may play an impact on supply as seeding window may be even shorter than usual. But may lower overall fert needs as likely some will go unseeded if spring is wet and lots will go to shorter season crops like barley using less inputs. Lack of fall application not an issue here, fall banding pretty much ancient history, maybe other areas different.

      At $8/mile you should go back trucking! Can likely add a carbon tax surcharge on top too. I expect freight rates to keep going up, gonna be harder to find and keep drivers going forward with the new licensing rules.

      Comment


        #4
        Mosaic is shutting down in Florida pho’s.

        Reason Morocco. Sending cheap shit

        Comment


          #5
          I purchased fert and it is in my bins where I want. I was good with price. I’m not dealing with spring logistics. It will be a gong show if there’s a tight seeding window. Next to no fall fert applied in Manitoba. I don’t see price moving much either way. I believe floor is in. Retailers here won’t want to budge much. Direct loads from states may be an option. Mines are shutting down, so floor is in or very close imo.

          Comment


            #6
            Got half the fert delivered yesterday and the rest is coming Monday. Been burned by pre buying from one dealer and paying storage till May. Went to pick it up and he ran out of phos. Went and bought epoxy bins the next fall and paid for product then get it delivered in a month or two. That worked great until we almost got swindled out of our whole years fert purchase by Performance Ag when they stole everyone’s pre pay money. This year the trucks are delivering and it will be paid for within a week.

            Our nearest dealer is 50km away and usually is an hour or more wait to get loaded so I think our bins are great.

            P.S. The price went down on our blended stuff $10 a couple of days after ordering it .......... like usual. 😉

            Comment


              #7
              I purchased fert and it is in my bins where I want. I was good with price. I’m not dealing with spring logistics. It will be a gong show if there’s a tight seeding window. Next to no fall fert applied in Manitoba. I don’t see price moving much either way. I believe floor is in. Retailers here won’t want to budge much. Direct loads from states may be an option. Mines are shutting down, so floor is in or very close imo.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by SASKFARMER View Post
                Mosaic is shutting down in Florida pho’s.

                Reason Morocco. Sending cheap shit
                Interesting... Certainly one of the reasons i was inquiring. I searched the google news archive and couldn't find anything related to the "king of morocco" saying that they were pulling out of the phos market... so wondered if I was being played?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by GDR View Post
                  At $8/mile you should go back trucking! Can likely add a carbon tax surcharge on top too. I expect freight rates to keep going up, gonna be harder to find and keep drivers going forward with the new licensing rules.
                  Personally I didn't mind the gig. Met alot of great farmers, and got paid to tour a tremendous amount of western north america... It was one thing to reason with a wife/gf that you were going to be gone till the weekend, or even possibly getting screwed over on your reset somewhere remote. It's entirely another when you're sitting in southern Idaho, mom is sick with the flu, and your kids are wondering if you'll be home to take care of them when mom is feeling ill, and on top of it the wife's grandma passed away...

                  kid: "It's not that far, you can be home tonight right dad?"

                  If I'd had my way, i'd have been wheels up and home the next morning, but unloads, reloads, and government issued log books said I couldn't make it home for at least two days...

                  The gig is certainly not for the faint of heart, or even the happily married!

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Does anyone know where to get current Average Weekly Retail fertilizer
                    prices without a subscription?
                    Usually book end of year but wonder about maybe a price drop between
                    now and spring and so waiting and want to monitor- without asking
                    salespersons and having to endlessly answer phone during traditionally
                    slow season.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Last number of years the fertilizer price dropped for any seeding after the May long weekend around here. So far buying when needed has not cost much more than prebuying and storing fertilizer. Too much risk to prebuy and have the fertilizer company store it. I write the check after it is in my truck. With operating loan renewals becoming an issue, it is likely the spring shortages do not materialize for the third year in a row.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by wade View Post
                        Does anyone know where to get current Average Weekly Retail fertilizer
                        prices without a subscription?
                        Usually book end of year but wonder about maybe a price drop between
                        now and spring and so waiting and want to monitor- without asking
                        salespersons and having to endlessly answer phone during traditionally
                        slow season.
                        Bryce Knorr does one for the US market.

                        https://www.farmprogress.com/story-weekly-fertilizer-review-fertilizer-prices-could-be-bottoming-17-30462 https://www.farmprogress.com/story-weekly-fertilizer-review-fertilizer-prices-could-be-bottoming-17-30462

                        Comment


                          #13
                          SHHH....we are all competitors, only you got the SPECIAL price, but don't tell...

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Good mates with a commission trader of fert buys fert on sells makes his 20 per tonne regardless of price only small part of his business reckons can’t go much lower suggest jan will be low point for April delivery

                            Basically $130 per tonne less than last year here

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Just bought today. Delivered in January. N-$487/T P-$653/T K-$458/T S-$437/T

                              High? Low? East Central Alberta.

                              Supposed to start going up due to fertilizer companies idling production.
                              Last edited by flea beetle; Dec 30, 2019, 23:32.

                              Comment

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