An olive branch to Chuck. Let's collaborate on proving climate change on the prairie

[jazz]

Found a dissenting scientist;

Meteorologist Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, Inc., sees climate change as a natural phenomenon and sides with those who believe human activity is not the primary cause of climate change.

“Global warming certainly cannot be disputed when one looks back and accepts the theory that the earth was once covered greatly in ice,” Mr. Lerner said. He cites sun spot activity as the primary cause of longer-term temperature changes, but also notes a key role played by ocean temperatures. He suggests the massive amount of data and information now available about weather events around the globe contribute to the idea that weather is much more active and severe than it once was. But that’s not the case, he contends, as the climate “is always in a state of flux.”

Farmers shouldn’t expect any breakthrough, however, on long-term weather forecasting, said Drew Lerner, president of Kansas-based World Weather Inc. and a practising meteorologist for 38 years.

“Long-range forecasting is an art, and it is a very risky thing to do,” said Lerner. “It really does come down to a great deal of prayer.

“There’s too much going on, too much chaos in the atmosphere. it is not a solvable equation. All we can do is get better at estimating.”

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Evidently I must be a very poor communicator, it seems that no one has understood the purpose of my post.

Chuck, your links lead us into the same dead end trap as before. They use statements such as:

One prominent theory is that global warming will cause the jet stream to slow down and become wavier

Speculation, future tense

She believes the natural undulations of the jet stream are becoming bigger and more pronounced because of climate change.

There goes that believe word again, it has no place in science.

that can weaken the jet stream

Speculation, future.

the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase

Future tense

there is no detailed account of what the jet stream was doing before human-induced global warming kicked in

this is the crux of my post, this is what I want to answer.

We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction.

We just need to translate that into language that your audience can understand. Best way to do that is to show that the persistence of weather patterns, good, bad or indifferent is something new and unusual. Then you can take the next step and prove that it is related to CO2 concentrations, while the rest of us can use this info to mitigate weather risks on our own farms.

Chuck, this is your chance to prove that this is a here and now phenomenon, and that it really is affecting your target audience, western Canadian farmers. We need to take this from the theoretical, future tense, and verify it on the ground in the present tense.

We have no records of jet stream before the 1980's, so using data from the satellite era doesn't tell us anything about how unprecedented modern Jet stream behaviour might be, or if it follows similar cycles to the rest of the climate. We need to use weather records as proxy data for the behaviour of the jet stream in the pre satellite era. You really could change some minds if this proves to be real and measurable already. It will just require more work than simply cutting and pasting someone else's speculation. This is how science advances.

[fjlip]

Found a dissenting scientist;

Meteorologist Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, Inc., sees climate change as a natural phenomenon and sides with those who believe human activity is not the primary cause of climate change.

“Global warming certainly cannot be disputed when one looks back and accepts the theory that the earth was once covered greatly in ice,” Mr. Lerner said. He cites sun spot activity as the primary cause of longer-term temperature changes, but also notes a key role played by ocean temperatures. He suggests the massive amount of data and information now available about weather events around the globe contribute to the idea that weather is much more active and severe than it once was. But that’s not the case, he contends, as the climate “is always in a state of flux.”

Farmers shouldn’t expect any breakthrough, however, on long-term weather forecasting, said Drew Lerner, president of Kansas-based World Weather Inc. and a practising meteorologist for 38 years.

“Long-range forecasting is an art, and it is a very risky thing to do,” said Lerner. “It really does come down to a great deal of prayer.

“There’s too much going on, too much chaos in the atmosphere. it is not a solvable equation. All we can do is get better at estimating.”

Thanks jazz, I wondered if Drew had a comment, opinion, BELIEF. But the last line is absolutely believable, accurate and to the point. C02 is NOT the demon gas, way too complex many factors in play. The PRAY part might grind a few.

[chuckChuck]

One of the reasons climate scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that climate change is causing the jet stream to act differently than in the past, is the short time frame of 40 years of satellite observations of the jet stream.

That said, there are some scientists who are saying that is what is happening and will continue to happen as the arctic warms faster than mid latitudes.

A5 you are welcome to crunch any numbers you want and make a point or disprove the thesis of climate change is affecting the jet stream and resulting weather patterns.

I am willing to let the scientists who know what they are doing do the analysis. Neither you or I have access to the data or scientific journals that cover this area of research. And I do not have the training or time to take on such a venture and I doubt you do either.

When there is a large amount of peer reviewed research that shows cause and effect then scientists will draw their own conclusions.

And you are correct it will be valuable for farmers to know what we are facing in terms of extremes or persistent weather patterns that are affecting our crops and livestock along with climate trends.

[tweety]

I’m making a difference. I’m going to sequester another 1 000 000 pounds of carbon in the ground this year. Yet I’m probably still going to pay $50000 in carbon tax.

Please show your math.

[furrowtickler]

One of the reasons climate scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that climate change is causing the jet stream to act differently than in the past, is the short time frame of 40 years of satellite observations of the jet stream.

That said, there are some scientists who are saying that is what is happening and will continue to happen as the arctic warms faster than mid latitudes.

A5 you are welcome to crunch any numbers you want and make a point or disprove the thesis of climate change is affecting the jet stream and resulting weather patterns.

I am willing to let the scientists who know what they are doing do the analysis. Neither you or I have access to the data or scientific journals that cover this area of research. And I do not have the training or time to take on such a venture and I doubt you do either.

When there is a large amount of peer reviewed research that shows cause and effect then scientists will draw their own conclusions.

And you are correct it will be valuable for farmers to know what we are facing in terms of extremes or persistent weather patterns that are affecting our crops and livestock along with climate trends.

Also they don’t want to admit the climate forcing from the sun has by far the most effect on climate, with C02 a minute player.
Everything you have been describing lately is mainly due to sunspot activity and climate forcing causing natural climate change that has been occurring in cycles for a millennium.
Interesting to see how they climate Scientology group has twisted the global warming to climate change to envelop all things climate to push a tax agenda.

[TASFarms]

Kids are taught in school that the artic is melting fast and there are on icebergs left. Too bad the teachers wouldn’t have a look at iceberg tracker. There still are lots of icebergs

[samhill]

People worried about human inflicted climate change should watch this movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rainmaker_(1956_film)

There’s a sucker born every minute, and they deserve to have their money taken.

[chuckChuck]

https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/2-0/ https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/2-0/

“Climate” can be considered the average, or expected, weather and related atmospheric, land, and marine conditions for a particular location. Climate statistics are commonly calculated for 30-year periods, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. “Climate change” refers to a persistent, long-term change in the state of the climate, measured by changes in the mean state and/or its variability (IPCC, 2013c) 33. Measuring climate change, therefore, requires long-term observations of climate parameters so that long-term trends can be distinguished from shorter-term variations (see Section 2.3.3).

Changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of climate and weather extremes 3
are expected to accompany a changing climate. These changes can have large impacts on human and natural systems. For some types of extremes (e.g., hot and cold days/nights), changes in frequency are a natural consequence of a shift toward a warmer climate on average. For other extremes, the factors underlying expected changes are more complicated and can involve changes in the water cycle, ocean temperatures, atmosphere-ocean circulation, and other factors.

Quantifying changes in many extremes of climate and weather is more challenging than quantifying changes in mean climate conditions, for several reasons (IPCC, 201230). By definition, extremes occur infrequently. Therefore, observational data spanning many decades or longer are needed to derive adequate statistics about the historical occurrence rate of extremes, but these are often lacking.

[jazz]

“Climate” can be considered the average, or expected, weather and related atmospheric, land, and marine conditions for a particular location. Climate statistics are commonly calculated for 30-year periods, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. “Climate change” refers to a persistent, long-term change in the state of the climate, measured by changes in the mean state and/or its variability (IPCC, 2013c) 33. Measuring climate change, therefore, requires long-term observations of climate parameters so that long-term trends can be distinguished from shorter-term variations (see Section 2.3.3).

Is there anyone on the IPCC board that runs their own subscription based climate forecasting shop like Lerner does? I mean these are all the best scientists in the world, they should be rock stars. Should be tons of private companies and think tanks just waiting to recruit them. If you can forecast the weather you can make big bank just trading ag futures. Are they hired as quants in big wall street firms?

Lets face it, those guys would be under a bridge the day their govt funded hysteria gravy train came to an end.

I will stick with Lerner. Guy gets on the ground, into cycles, sun activity, ninos and ninas. He has more credibility than the entire UN.