Since neither of us is making any progress convincing the other about global warming, lets find some common ground and work together on something that could be of mutual benefit.
You've suggested multiple times that global warming is causing the jet stream to stall and cause our weather patterns to get stuck in place. And you are not alone, it is commonly repeated by others and in the media. And there is certainly some rationale behind the theory, as the temperature differential between higher latitudes and lower latitudes decreases. But I am unable to find any research to prove or disprove that it is having a measurable effect on the ground in the real world where we have to make a living.
If it is, this is information that all of us can use to plan accordingly. If we know that the weather patterns we grew up with would stick around for average of 10 days, and now it is average of 30 days ( for random example), we could adjust our plans to fit around that schedule. Instead of waiting for dry weather to return to seed/spray/hay/harvest/ or do warm weather jobs in winter time, like we could have done in the past, we could persevere and do it the hard way, knowing that the odds are not in our favour for the pattern to change in time. Could likely even use it to predict potential yields, based on the prevailing weather pattern as of a certain date, and apply inputs accordingly. And Chuck, you can use this information to sell the proposal that global warming is having an effect, detrimental or otherwise on western Canadian farmers, right now, in the present day, not potentially in the future, and back it up with data right from our own back yard. I will leave it up to you to prove if correlation implies causation, in the event that we do show a trend change in weather duration.
So, what I propose, is to gather daily weather records for multiple locations across the prairies, and analyse them for changes in duration of various weather patterns, as a proxy for jet stream movement.
Unfortunately, I have attempted to graph long term precipitation and temperature for my area, and found the environment Canada records to be abysmal. There are gaps in the data anywhere from days to decades long, station locations and names change, and mixing data from various different stations to fill in the gaps really distorts the picture. So, it might take some effort to find stations with enough high quality data.
So, if you or anyone else interested wants to look up the data, and ideally get it into a spreadsheet, or at least rows and columns that can easily be imported into Excel, I would be willing to attempt to analyse it for pattern changes. At a bare minimum we would need daily precipitation, and daily high temperatures. Daily lows, overcast days, and wind direction/speed would also be good proxies if they are available.
To be meaningful, the data should go back to at least the 1930's, to encompass the previous cycle high, to see if weather duration also follows the same cycles, or is unique to the modern high CO2 era.
Merry Christmas
You've suggested multiple times that global warming is causing the jet stream to stall and cause our weather patterns to get stuck in place. And you are not alone, it is commonly repeated by others and in the media. And there is certainly some rationale behind the theory, as the temperature differential between higher latitudes and lower latitudes decreases. But I am unable to find any research to prove or disprove that it is having a measurable effect on the ground in the real world where we have to make a living.
If it is, this is information that all of us can use to plan accordingly. If we know that the weather patterns we grew up with would stick around for average of 10 days, and now it is average of 30 days ( for random example), we could adjust our plans to fit around that schedule. Instead of waiting for dry weather to return to seed/spray/hay/harvest/ or do warm weather jobs in winter time, like we could have done in the past, we could persevere and do it the hard way, knowing that the odds are not in our favour for the pattern to change in time. Could likely even use it to predict potential yields, based on the prevailing weather pattern as of a certain date, and apply inputs accordingly. And Chuck, you can use this information to sell the proposal that global warming is having an effect, detrimental or otherwise on western Canadian farmers, right now, in the present day, not potentially in the future, and back it up with data right from our own back yard. I will leave it up to you to prove if correlation implies causation, in the event that we do show a trend change in weather duration.
So, what I propose, is to gather daily weather records for multiple locations across the prairies, and analyse them for changes in duration of various weather patterns, as a proxy for jet stream movement.
Unfortunately, I have attempted to graph long term precipitation and temperature for my area, and found the environment Canada records to be abysmal. There are gaps in the data anywhere from days to decades long, station locations and names change, and mixing data from various different stations to fill in the gaps really distorts the picture. So, it might take some effort to find stations with enough high quality data.
So, if you or anyone else interested wants to look up the data, and ideally get it into a spreadsheet, or at least rows and columns that can easily be imported into Excel, I would be willing to attempt to analyse it for pattern changes. At a bare minimum we would need daily precipitation, and daily high temperatures. Daily lows, overcast days, and wind direction/speed would also be good proxies if they are available.
To be meaningful, the data should go back to at least the 1930's, to encompass the previous cycle high, to see if weather duration also follows the same cycles, or is unique to the modern high CO2 era.
Merry Christmas
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