An olive branch to Chuck. Let's collaborate on proving climate change on the prairie

[furrowtickler]

One of the reasons climate scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that climate change is causing the jet stream to act differently than in the past, is the short time frame of 40 years of satellite observations of the jet stream.

That said, there are some scientists who are saying that is what is happening and will continue to happen as the arctic warms faster than mid latitudes.

A5 you are welcome to crunch any numbers you want and make a point or disprove the thesis of climate change is affecting the jet stream and resulting weather patterns.

I am willing to let the scientists who know what they are doing do the analysis. Neither you or I have access to the data or scientific journals that cover this area of research. And I do not have the training or time to take on such a venture and I doubt you do either.

When there is a large amount of peer reviewed research that shows cause and effect then scientists will draw their own conclusions.

And you are correct it will be valuable for farmers to know what we are facing in terms of extremes or persistent weather patterns that are affecting our crops and livestock along with climate trends.

Also they don’t want to admit the climate forcing from the sun has by far the most effect on climate, with C02 a minute player.
Everything you have been describing lately is mainly due to sunspot activity and climate forcing causing natural climate change that has been occurring in cycles for a millennium.
Interesting to see how they climate Scientology group has twisted the global warming to climate change to envelop all things climate to push a tax agenda.

[TASFarms]

Kids are taught in school that the artic is melting fast and there are on icebergs left. Too bad the teachers wouldn’t have a look at iceberg tracker. There still are lots of icebergs

[samhill]

People worried about human inflicted climate change should watch this movie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rainmaker_(1956_film)

There’s a sucker born every minute, and they deserve to have their money taken.

[chuckChuck]

https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/2-0/ https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/2-0/

“Climate” can be considered the average, or expected, weather and related atmospheric, land, and marine conditions for a particular location. Climate statistics are commonly calculated for 30-year periods, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. “Climate change” refers to a persistent, long-term change in the state of the climate, measured by changes in the mean state and/or its variability (IPCC, 2013c) 33. Measuring climate change, therefore, requires long-term observations of climate parameters so that long-term trends can be distinguished from shorter-term variations (see Section 2.3.3).

Changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of climate and weather extremes 3
are expected to accompany a changing climate. These changes can have large impacts on human and natural systems. For some types of extremes (e.g., hot and cold days/nights), changes in frequency are a natural consequence of a shift toward a warmer climate on average. For other extremes, the factors underlying expected changes are more complicated and can involve changes in the water cycle, ocean temperatures, atmosphere-ocean circulation, and other factors.

Quantifying changes in many extremes of climate and weather is more challenging than quantifying changes in mean climate conditions, for several reasons (IPCC, 201230). By definition, extremes occur infrequently. Therefore, observational data spanning many decades or longer are needed to derive adequate statistics about the historical occurrence rate of extremes, but these are often lacking.

[jazz]

“Climate” can be considered the average, or expected, weather and related atmospheric, land, and marine conditions for a particular location. Climate statistics are commonly calculated for 30-year periods, as recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. “Climate change” refers to a persistent, long-term change in the state of the climate, measured by changes in the mean state and/or its variability (IPCC, 2013c) 33. Measuring climate change, therefore, requires long-term observations of climate parameters so that long-term trends can be distinguished from shorter-term variations (see Section 2.3.3).

Is there anyone on the IPCC board that runs their own subscription based climate forecasting shop like Lerner does? I mean these are all the best scientists in the world, they should be rock stars. Should be tons of private companies and think tanks just waiting to recruit them. If you can forecast the weather you can make big bank just trading ag futures. Are they hired as quants in big wall street firms?

Lets face it, those guys would be under a bridge the day their govt funded hysteria gravy train came to an end.

I will stick with Lerner. Guy gets on the ground, into cycles, sun activity, ninos and ninas. He has more credibility than the entire UN.

[chuckChuck]

Jazz, Learner is one company making short term and long term weather forecasts for agriculture.

No doubt he is as good or better at it as any other organization.

But forecasts from 2 days to a year long have nothing to do with analyzing climate change. Not one of the organizations he gets his data from says human caused climate change is not happening.

https://worldweather.cc/about/ https://worldweather.cc/about/

Monitor

World Weather, Inc. monitors weather worldwide through a sophisticated data network consisting of international observed data from both manned and unmanned weather stations, as well as satellite and ocean data. The observed and recorded data is sent through the United Nations’ founded World Meteorological Organization (WMO) data delivery system to the Netherlands where the information is collected from each of its member countries and then all data is re-disseminated back out to each country creating a unique weather network of shared international scientific data.

Process

The data collected is then decoded and processed for analysis daily throughout the year. World Weather, Inc. has created a number of algorithms that assess soil moisture for nearly every region in the world and present the data graphically along with daily, weekly and monthly rainfall and temperature statistics presented graphically for quick assessments.


Forecast
"World Weather, Inc.’s staff uses a wide assortment of computer forecast models. Data used for the initial analysis for the modeling comes from the same WMO data noted above. The sources of computer modeling come from as far away as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Japan’s Meteorological Agency to Environment Canada’s modeling center and multiple models that are produced in the United States by both the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and U.S. Navy weather services. One of the more popular models used besides the U.S. National Hurricane Center’s modeling is the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Models from South America are also used along with World Weather, Inc.’s own Trend Model."

[tweety]

Max forecast today even with peta scale computer power is 3 days. Drew is bullshitting you. No better then a dart board. But humans like to hear an answer, it gives you naive comfort. And for a price, he's willing to give you that bullshit answer. After all he's gonna be right once in a while.

[farming101]

Battleford Climate
High and Low temp recorded is the average of the month's daily highs and lows
Average is the mean of the daily high and low temps averaged for the month

[furrowtickler]

Battleford Climate
High and Low temp recorded is the average of the month's daily highs and lows
Average is the mean of the daily high and low temps averaged for the month
[ATTACH]5410[/ATTACH]

Yup fairly steady

[jazz]

Max forecast today even with peta scale computer power is 3 days. Drew is bullshitting you. No better then a dart board. But humans like to hear an answer, it gives you naive comfort. And for a price, he's willing to give you that bullshit answer. After all he's gonna be right once in a while.

If I have to get my weather from somewhere, I prefer someone with a level head who isn't into scaring or shaming people. The MSM weather services don't qualify for that anymore.

[fjlip]

Climate has changed, will you look at that! It's the SUN "stupid people". C02 is NOT a factor, not a demon, a necessary gas for all life. And "90% of the last million years, the normal state of the Earth's climate has been an ice age". That is scary! Warmer if true would be WONDERFUL!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

One of the reasons climate scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that climate change is causing the jet stream to act differently than in the past, is the short time frame of 40 years of satellite observations of the jet stream.

That said, there are some scientists who are saying that is what is happening and will continue to happen as the arctic warms faster than mid latitudes.

A5 you are welcome to crunch any numbers you want and make a point or disprove the thesis of climate change is affecting the jet stream and resulting weather patterns.

I am willing to let the scientists who know what they are doing do the analysis. Neither you or I have access to the data or scientific journals that cover this area of research. And I do not have the training or time to take on such a venture and I doubt you do either.

When there is a large amount of peer reviewed research that shows cause and effect then scientists will draw their own conclusions.

And you are correct it will be valuable for farmers to know what we are facing in terms of extremes or persistent weather patterns that are affecting our crops and livestock along with climate trends.

You have a very high estimation of scientists don't you.

All the data we need is readily available to any of us, here are your local daily weather records:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=%7C&dlyRange=1951-07-01%7C2016-03-20&mlyRange=1951-01-01%7C2007-11-01&StationID=3448&Prov=SK&urlExtension=_e.html&sea rchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840& EndYear=2019&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod= contains&txtStationName=pelly&timeframe=2&Day=27&Y ear=1951&Month=11# https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=%7C&dlyRange=1951-07-01%7C2016-03-20&mlyRange=1951-01-01%7C2007-11-01&StationID=3448&Prov=SK&urlExtension=_e.html&sea rchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840& EndYear=2019&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod= contains&txtStationName=pelly&timeframe=2&Day=27&Y ear=1951&Month=11#

All of the daily data available at the click of a mouse. No training required, all you need to do is open one month, record the relevant data into a spreadsheet, then click next, to advance to the next month, then record that data. Data only goes back to 1951, so will need to find a nearby station to go back further. While that would really mess up the trend if we were measuring temperature trend such as Micheal Mann did, fortunately in this case, since we are only comparing to average for that station and day, so it would be seemless to splice the two.
Unfortunately, you will find a lot of months that look like this:

As for analysis, I don't know what your computer skills are, which is why I have offered to do that. We all have the program to do just that, called Excel:

My plan is to smooth the daily data with a running average, will need to try a few different lengths, but definitely under a week, to eliminate the one day spikes either way. Then compare that to the average for that era and day of year. Again, will need to try different values, 1, degree, 2, 3 etc above or below average for that day, and count the average length of time temperature spends above and/or below average in that year, then see if that length of time is increasing in recent years. Same for precipitation or any other parameter we decide is available. Once the program is written, importing other data, or other locations is quick and painless.

As for needing access to scientific papers. I don't foresee needing to, unless someone has already done the work for us, and we can use their data and conclusions. In which case, I can access almost any paper through jstor through the University as an Alumni, I just need to remember how to sign in... Otherwise paying a few dollar for data that could save us days of entry, would be a small price to pay. Let me know if you found something worth accessing.

As for time, this is something I will gladly devote some time to at this time of year on cold days.

And we both will have much more time to spend on such a productive venture, since I have quit responding to your climate related posts, it will free up massive time for both of us.

And more importantly, you can save huge time in the future if you have actual present day evidence of global warming affecting farmers, you won't need to waste countless hours finding cut and paste's of future projections, since this will be so much more effective as a sales tactic. The ROI on your time will be massive, assuming the results are what we say they will be.

[tweety]

If I have to get my weather from somewhere, I prefer someone with a level head who isn't into scaring or shaming people. The MSM weather services don't qualify for that anymore.

Newsflash, they all get it from environment Canada. Where its reasonably accurate for 3 days. Why is this so difficult to understand? You like being scammed?

[Zephyr]

You have to be totally braindead to argue that the climate in Western Canada isn't changing.


There's f*** all for snow, and we've had 15 days of the old normal of weather. Lots of fog, lots of warmth.

Haven't had 3 feet of fluffy powder for how long?

Wether it's human caused or not, that's the real question.

And that's where the science isn't proven.

Arguing about advanced thermodynamics, climate, greenhouse effect, and weather patterns when simple high school genetics, and the fact that extreme levels of Co2 kill, is out of your grasp, is a waste of time for you and those that get it and are debating with you.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

You have to be totally braindead to argue that the climate in Western Canada isn't changing.


There's f*** all for snow, and we've had 15 days of the old normal of weather. Lots of fog, lots of warmth.

Haven't had 3 feet of fluffy powder for how long?

Wether it's human caused or not, that's the real question.

And that's where the science isn't proven.

Arguing about advanced thermodynamics, climate, greenhouse effect, and weather patterns when simple high school genetics, and the fact that extreme levels of Co2 kill, is out of your grasp, is a waste of time for you and those that get it and are debating with you.

Who are you responding to? I'm on the record acknowledging the climate improvements, based on the historical records. Not sure when I've said anything about genetics though? Or are you addressing someone else?