2020 Outlook

[SASKFARMER]

Sticking my nose out on what's going to happen in 2021.

Lots and lots of Barley will be grown. Wheat, not durum will drop in acres by quite a bit. Guys around us are switching 1000 acres and up to barley for feed.

Canola acres will be up but if the drought moves west lookout on the final outcome for yield. They will drive the market down with massive acres till the west starts to wilt then they will say Manitoba and sask will be big.

It's bone dry in most of Western Canada. So that might be the news story of 2021. The USA is also dry and so is Some of Brazil and Argentina. Maybe we don't have such a large supply.

Canada is in a shit show and if Covid 19 is done it won't be till later in fall of 2021. Look for lots of small and a few large businesses to go down.

Gold will continue to move up. The USA elected a putz and by fall we will get what they actually are. It's the same as we have in Canada. Clean energy deal and rah rah BS.

Once the American population realize what's happening all bets are off. They don't play like we do in Canada and keep electing a putz. Even Democrats get pissed at what's coming.

People will start to wake up in Canada and Ask why were locked down and can't go anyplace. People will start to ask why is China such a big part of Canadian politics and society.

Its a guess but is it really.

[jazz]

There is something off in the markets. I dont remember a yr ever where the major crops are this sold out 6 months before a new crop gets going.

I dont think its dryness they are responding to. It something else. China appears to be stockpiling and has already bought up a lot of cheaper crop than it is now. What are they up to?

[SASKFARMER]

When WWW3 happens and china walks in and starves all of NA it will be an easy win. Skippy and Biden will be sent to tropical islands for doing a great job.

[bucket]

There is something off in the markets. I dont remember a yr ever where the major crops are this sold out 6 months before a new crop gets going.

I dont think its dryness they are responding to. It something else. China appears to be stockpiling and has already bought up a lot of cheaper crop than it is now. What are they up to?

Sure would have been nice to know those sales were made before the grain was in China???

Maybe the guys sitting at farm groups or on commissions could get their heads out of their asses about the importance of mandatory sales reporting ....maybe ????

There is no phucking good reason for not knowing the sales made for future delivery?????

China has taken alot of wheat from Canada without anyone questioning it....it wouldn't happen in the US market...

And for those of you that don't realize it...that is where our grain is priced from....

I actually cant believe the Americans haven't asked Canada to implement sales reporting...

Catch 22...you can help farmers with direct payments and mandatory sales to help prices ...OR ...you can ignore farmers and have them sell below market value quietly to china...

which would farmers prefer??????

[Rareearth]

The dryness isn’t just north America but northern hemisphere, including Russia Ukraine.

The Chinese figured out how to buy or import large quantities, take positions, manage risk and profit. They saw the stats others were using, livestock disease threats in house are reduced, usa /Trump not a issue, etc

All analysts overestimated stocks and usage(demand) for the year going forward. China was able to drawdown this inventory to support that theory. Then the great global grain robbery! They go from country to country buying up everything cheap, or at market lows, building their position.

This is somewhat managed in the usa with sales reporting system, now the rest of the world and Canada learn a lesson on markets. They are the masters and they don’t teach this stuff at the UofS.

[SASKFARMER]

So true of a comment. They don't teach this stuff in any Canadian
Univeristy.

[jazz]

When china is buying people just have innocent thoughts. Oh they just have a lot of people to feed. Poor them.

In fact their activity in our grain markets and other areas often has an ulterior motive.

China buys up almost all of the US soybean and Cdn canola crop and good chunk of NA wheat as well. What would happen if they stockpiled cheaply and then sat out of the market for a few yrs? Like canola in 2019?

How many farmers could survive with their crops stuck in the bin for 2 yrs? Christ I have some neighbors who fill bags and empty them a week later. Interrupt that cashflow and poof.

I hate that we have to trade with China.

edit in; Dont forget the footprint china has in the ME and Africa. There is no reason they cant become a middleman in the grain trade, soak up all the supply, store it and the parse it out to their vassal states in those places effectively making us dependent on one buyer and they pass it on through, with premium of course and threat to boot.

[blackpowder]

Nothing about China will ever smell right. Except maybe 1.5 billion turds floating down the river every day. Can't crap if you don't eat!
Seriously though, long term foreign policy hasn't appeared to have done enough study.

[SASKFARMER]

N e v e r t r u s t c h i n a !

[foragefarmer]

I actually cant believe the Americans haven't asked Canada to implement sales reporting...

Just wondering why you would think that? How do you know if they don't already have them. Lots of grain companies operating in Canada are multinationals.

I don't think the USDA is to concerned about Western Canadian farmer being deprived of vital marketing information, as we are their competition.

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom!

[sumdumguy]

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom![/QUOTE]

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal!

[foragefarmer]

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom!

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal![/QUOTE]



I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.