2020 Outlook

[bucket]

I hit the like button accidently ...I hadn't even read the post I was just scrolling....

Oops

[jazz]

Grain companies are our friends? Who knew.

[malleefarmer]

Dumb question sure I know the answer but canola has always had a free market or was it at one stage under the CWB umbrella?

[farming101]

Dumb question sure I know the answer but canola has always had a free market or was it at one stage under the CWB umbrella?

Canola has always been a cash crop in Canada; full payment upon delivery. Whether it is a free market or not is another thing altogether...

[Rareearth]

Yes canola was always, more or less open market.

It has been heavily manipulated over the years by the exporters. Can’t remember the year or even what companies were involved but one companies squeezed another really hard because they were long on futures and had no physical to cover the position.

Who says the exporters don’t take positions? Or speculate!

Probably wouldn’t have happened if there were market sales reporting?

[LEP]

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal!

I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.[/QUOTE]





Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?

[foragefarmer]

I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.

Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?[/QUOTE]

Lep, maybe you should reread what SUM posted before you try to take a swing at me, as he posted "special crops cars OR PRODUCER CARS"

Do you read anywhere in my post making any reference to "special crops cars". Umm, I do know how "Producer Cars" function for producers.

SUM was just broad stroking because any negativity towards the CWB is an safe target here on Agriville.

Have a great day Lep!

[farming101]

Corn put in a 6 and a half year high on the continuous chart today.

[bucket]

Corn put in a 6 and a half year high on the continuous chart today.

Thank you for putting this thread back on track. ...

Should a guy be pricing new crop ...let's say 10 percent considering how dry it is....

These are not bad prices to start?????

[LEP]

Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?

Lep, maybe you should reread what SUM posted before you try to take a swing at me, as he posted "special crops cars OR PRODUCER CARS"

Do you read anywhere in my post making any reference to "special crops cars". Umm, I do know how "Producer Cars" function for producers.

SUM was just broad stroking because any negativity towards the CWB is an safe target here on Agriville.

Have a great day Lep![/QUOTE]

Wow, I guess you are sensitive. 20 producer cars obviously makes you an expert. I know my efforts to market grain outside the CWB were always thwarted. There isn't a day that goes by that I am not thankful it is gone.

It's objective was collective poverty.

[TechAnalyst]

Thank you for putting this thread back on track. ...

Should a guy be pricing new crop ...let's say 10 percent considering how dry it is....

These are not bad prices to start?????

I believe small amounts using targets are a good idea if nothing more than help relieve the guilt of doing nothing should things fall apart.

Record highs are usually the end result of a combination of unique factors. Will we see that, who knows, unlikely, but we do have a number of those lining up.

I would only sell enough new crop such that you would not want or need to buy yourself out of a contract. And would be happy with that being the low price of the year if fortunate enough to have that occur.

That said, I do believe that with the strong demand, tight old crop supplies and drought risk to Northern Hemisphere new crop prospects, fall prices are undervalued (due to being on the sell side of bull spreads).

That's my thoughts for what they're worth.

[TechAnalyst]

That doesn’t change the fact that China looks to become a significant importer in the future given they have increased their domestic use by 49 MMT in the last four years. So far imports have only increased to 7 MMT from 3.46 last year while they work through their large stockpiles but the pattern is very similar to their reliance on imported soybeans over the years (soybean imports went from under 5 MMT 21 years ago to over 90 MMT recently). If Brazil and Argentina for the most part have maxed out their export potential, any future sales to China could be difficult without increasing imports.

As far as the short term price targets go, my objective in these exercises is to try to look at where we may be in 12 to 18 months and how that could impact our businesses. I’m not too worried about when we’ll surpass $4, more about what are the implications for management if the long term potential is realized.

All the best for 2020

$6 corn likely impacts management a bit...