2020 Outlook

[bucket]

There is something off in the markets. I dont remember a yr ever where the major crops are this sold out 6 months before a new crop gets going.

I dont think its dryness they are responding to. It something else. China appears to be stockpiling and has already bought up a lot of cheaper crop than it is now. What are they up to?

Sure would have been nice to know those sales were made before the grain was in China???

Maybe the guys sitting at farm groups or on commissions could get their heads out of their asses about the importance of mandatory sales reporting ....maybe ????

There is no phucking good reason for not knowing the sales made for future delivery?????

China has taken alot of wheat from Canada without anyone questioning it....it wouldn't happen in the US market...

And for those of you that don't realize it...that is where our grain is priced from....

I actually cant believe the Americans haven't asked Canada to implement sales reporting...

Catch 22...you can help farmers with direct payments and mandatory sales to help prices ...OR ...you can ignore farmers and have them sell below market value quietly to china...

which would farmers prefer??????

[Rareearth]

The dryness isn’t just north America but northern hemisphere, including Russia Ukraine.

The Chinese figured out how to buy or import large quantities, take positions, manage risk and profit. They saw the stats others were using, livestock disease threats in house are reduced, usa /Trump not a issue, etc

All analysts overestimated stocks and usage(demand) for the year going forward. China was able to drawdown this inventory to support that theory. Then the great global grain robbery! They go from country to country buying up everything cheap, or at market lows, building their position.

This is somewhat managed in the usa with sales reporting system, now the rest of the world and Canada learn a lesson on markets. They are the masters and they don’t teach this stuff at the UofS.

[SASKFARMER]

So true of a comment. They don't teach this stuff in any Canadian
Univeristy.

[jazz]

When china is buying people just have innocent thoughts. Oh they just have a lot of people to feed. Poor them.

In fact their activity in our grain markets and other areas often has an ulterior motive.

China buys up almost all of the US soybean and Cdn canola crop and good chunk of NA wheat as well. What would happen if they stockpiled cheaply and then sat out of the market for a few yrs? Like canola in 2019?

How many farmers could survive with their crops stuck in the bin for 2 yrs? Christ I have some neighbors who fill bags and empty them a week later. Interrupt that cashflow and poof.

I hate that we have to trade with China.

edit in; Dont forget the footprint china has in the ME and Africa. There is no reason they cant become a middleman in the grain trade, soak up all the supply, store it and the parse it out to their vassal states in those places effectively making us dependent on one buyer and they pass it on through, with premium of course and threat to boot.

[blackpowder]

Nothing about China will ever smell right. Except maybe 1.5 billion turds floating down the river every day. Can't crap if you don't eat!
Seriously though, long term foreign policy hasn't appeared to have done enough study.

[SASKFARMER]

N e v e r t r u s t c h i n a !

[foragefarmer]

I actually cant believe the Americans haven't asked Canada to implement sales reporting...

Just wondering why you would think that? How do you know if they don't already have them. Lots of grain companies operating in Canada are multinationals.

I don't think the USDA is to concerned about Western Canadian farmer being deprived of vital marketing information, as we are their competition.

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom!

[sumdumguy]

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom![/QUOTE]

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal!

[foragefarmer]

Do recall how many court challenges the USA wagered against the CWB, who did provided sales numbers, and kept grain companies somewhat honest?

Freedom!

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal![/QUOTE]



I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.

[bucket]

I hit the like button accidently ...I hadn't even read the post I was just scrolling....

Oops

[jazz]

Grain companies are our friends? Who knew.

[malleefarmer]

Dumb question sure I know the answer but canola has always had a free market or was it at one stage under the CWB umbrella?

[farming101]

Dumb question sure I know the answer but canola has always had a free market or was it at one stage under the CWB umbrella?

Canola has always been a cash crop in Canada; full payment upon delivery. Whether it is a free market or not is another thing altogether...

[Rareearth]

Yes canola was always, more or less open market.

It has been heavily manipulated over the years by the exporters. Can’t remember the year or even what companies were involved but one companies squeezed another really hard because they were long on futures and had no physical to cover the position.

Who says the exporters don’t take positions? Or speculate!

Probably wouldn’t have happened if there were market sales reporting?

[LEP]

They were the dishonest ones. You should have tried to get special crops cars or producer cars when the Big Bully CWB was calling the shots. They were brutal!

I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.[/QUOTE]





Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?