2020 Outlook

[foragefarmer]

I call Bull Shit on that one SUM, the CWB was a strong advocate for producers cars. I loaded producer cars for both Flax and CWRS. Through the years I loaded over 20 cars. Never was refused once. CNR was always easy to work with as well.

Now try and get a producer car SUM, almost all producer car loading sites have been decommissioned. Your friends, the grain companies sure as shit won't help you now.

Maybe put the blame where it belongs, either your administrator or yourself.

Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?[/QUOTE]

Lep, maybe you should reread what SUM posted before you try to take a swing at me, as he posted "special crops cars OR PRODUCER CARS"

Do you read anywhere in my post making any reference to "special crops cars". Umm, I do know how "Producer Cars" function for producers.

SUM was just broad stroking because any negativity towards the CWB is an safe target here on Agriville.

Have a great day Lep!

[farming101]

Corn put in a 6 and a half year high on the continuous chart today.

[bucket]

Corn put in a 6 and a half year high on the continuous chart today.

Thank you for putting this thread back on track. ...

Should a guy be pricing new crop ...let's say 10 percent considering how dry it is....

These are not bad prices to start?????

[LEP]

Umm you do know sumdumguy has a better knowledge of the special crop business than you ever will. Don’t you?

Lep, maybe you should reread what SUM posted before you try to take a swing at me, as he posted "special crops cars OR PRODUCER CARS"

Do you read anywhere in my post making any reference to "special crops cars". Umm, I do know how "Producer Cars" function for producers.

SUM was just broad stroking because any negativity towards the CWB is an safe target here on Agriville.

Have a great day Lep![/QUOTE]

Wow, I guess you are sensitive. 20 producer cars obviously makes you an expert. I know my efforts to market grain outside the CWB were always thwarted. There isn't a day that goes by that I am not thankful it is gone.

It's objective was collective poverty.

[TechAnalyst]

Thank you for putting this thread back on track. ...

Should a guy be pricing new crop ...let's say 10 percent considering how dry it is....

These are not bad prices to start?????

I believe small amounts using targets are a good idea if nothing more than help relieve the guilt of doing nothing should things fall apart.

Record highs are usually the end result of a combination of unique factors. Will we see that, who knows, unlikely, but we do have a number of those lining up.

I would only sell enough new crop such that you would not want or need to buy yourself out of a contract. And would be happy with that being the low price of the year if fortunate enough to have that occur.

That said, I do believe that with the strong demand, tight old crop supplies and drought risk to Northern Hemisphere new crop prospects, fall prices are undervalued (due to being on the sell side of bull spreads).

That's my thoughts for what they're worth.

[TechAnalyst]

That doesn’t change the fact that China looks to become a significant importer in the future given they have increased their domestic use by 49 MMT in the last four years. So far imports have only increased to 7 MMT from 3.46 last year while they work through their large stockpiles but the pattern is very similar to their reliance on imported soybeans over the years (soybean imports went from under 5 MMT 21 years ago to over 90 MMT recently). If Brazil and Argentina for the most part have maxed out their export potential, any future sales to China could be difficult without increasing imports.

As far as the short term price targets go, my objective in these exercises is to try to look at where we may be in 12 to 18 months and how that could impact our businesses. I’m not too worried about when we’ll surpass $4, more about what are the implications for management if the long term potential is realized.

All the best for 2020

$6 corn likely impacts management a bit...

[farming101]

Yes for sure. Fert and everything else is up over 50% or in short supply. Sharpen your pencil

Great to look back. It looks like the first date with a close over 4.20 was the Dec20 contract on Nov 11/20

Another buck in it yet?

[TechAnalyst]

I believe so.

For about 2 1/2 yrs starting 2011, corn traded in a $6 - $8 range (as I'm sure you know).

$5.50 was a key level of resistance and support over the years. Now that we are clearly over, I expect we could see a return to the 6 to $8/bu range again.

Interesting times...

[farming101]

I agree, 8 is possible, but I would think might take even more downward stocks revisions to achieve.
7 is all the chart is telling me right now.

[Rareearth]

Its always a battle, technicals vs fundamentals

[farming101]

May corn has attained 7. First notice day on April 30
July 6.43. Heading for 7?

[sumdumguy]

Foragefarmer, you might still have your dear “Western Canadian Wheat Bullies”. If they weren’t such bullies. We lived with the tyrants and begged every which way for it to be different but no way. As for special crops, a fledgling industry, we lived it, railway reps told it like it was. Just sayin.

[farming101]

July corn has moved above 7. Not much overhead now but air. 8 is in view.

7+ feed barley depending on location

[AlbertaFarmer5]

July corn has moved above 7. Not much overhead now but air. 8 is in view.

7+ feed barley depending on location

What should the ratio between corn and barley be in the feedbunk, and in the same currency? I assume corn justifies a higher per bushel price due to the higher bushel weight, or does the energy content of barley cancel that out?

[farming101]

What should the ratio between corn and barley be in the feedbunk, and in the same currency? I assume corn justifies a higher per bushel price due to the higher bushel weight, or does the energy content of barley cancel that out?

Not a feedlot operator.
My understanding is for growing younger animals barley is as good or better. Corn may have the edge for finishing.
For much of the prairies landed cost is the decider.

A little more on the price of barley right now for feeders; this could all be seen coming down the pipe last fall. I will say not the price at present which is amazing, but the availability. Too bad that feeders didn't contract a bit more of their needs. They could have secured a lot of top quality barley, kept it out of the export market and saved themselves a lot of expense.

Personally we would rather serve the feedlot industry than ship barley overseas but feedlot fall bids were no where near export offers.