• You will need to login or register before you can post a message. If you already have an Agriville account login by clicking the login icon on the top right corner of the page. If you are a new user you will need to Register.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

THE INDIAN DIPOLE...HAVE A GREAT 2020! Many Seasons Blessings!!!

Collapse
X
Collapse
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    THE INDIAN DIPOLE...HAVE A GREAT 2020! Many Seasons Blessings!!!

    On Climate Change...

    The Indian Dipole is a principle reason for much the Australian hot weather now. Predicted in Sept of 2019.

    https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2019-09-16-2019-to-be-one-of-strongest-iod-years-on-record-expert

    "2019 to Be One of Strongest Indian Ocean Dipole Years On Record: Expert
    By TWC India Edit Team16 September 2019TWC India

    2. As someone who has been following IOD closely for many years, what are the multi-decadal trends you have noted? Is the phenomenon changing over time?

    Strong IOD events tend to occur roughly every 10 years. The reasons for this are only being investigated. The countries that are strongly affected by IOD are those in the eastern Indian Ocean (Indonesia to Australia) and equatorial Eastern Africa, where IOD leads to severe lack of rainfall. Moderate impacts are found over portions of India up to southern Iran. We have also found that IOD can lead to excessively warm (southern hemisphere) spring seasons over central portions of South America (e.g. Bolivia).

    3. Coming to 2019, how have IOD values moved since the beginning of the monsoon season, and where do you think they are headed from here?

    IOD usually manifests first around early summer and strengthens to a peak in late fall. The current IOD is also following this pattern and has significantly strengthened during August. In fact, it is now very similar in its strength to one of the strongest IOD events in recent decades, that of 2006. [That year, too, a resurgence of rainfall in August across central and western India helped overcome an overall monsoon deficit, but left other parts dry.]

    From available research, IOD impacts on Indian rainfall are expected to continue over Northwestern parts of India and may extend till October/November, when IOD reaches peak activity. We expect that the current IOD will develop to be one of the strongest on record."

    And it was/Is.

    "4. So what exactly can we expect if 2019 becomes one of the strongest IOD years of all time?

    The dry spells over Indonesia, Australia and Singapore are strongly tied to the ongoing IOD. In fact, the Australian weather agency has been alerting Australians to adverse climate associated with IOD since early spring of this year. The weather agency of Singapore has, similarly, associated the dry spells over Singapore with IOD.
    6. What are the gaps in scientists' current understanding of IOD at this point?

    Although many studies have tried to understand the impacts associated with IOD, there are not many looking at the physical mechanisms through which IOD may drive these impacts. Unless we understand these, it is difficult to judge whether a particular impact is really attributable to IOD, and not a statistical artefact of the analysis. While the mechanisms by which an IOD intensifies is reasonably understood, it is not very clear what mechanisms or conditions leads to the initial development of an IOD; the same may be said about El Niño as well. Further, it is not known why we have intense IOD events roughly every 10 years. These are questions I want to find answers to.

    7. Is global warming likely to have an effect on IOD?

    It is difficult to say. Climate models used in global warming projections have certain deficiencies in simulating the structure of IOD and its relation to ENSO. Thus the future changes of IOD in global warming projections are not yet very reliable, but models are continuously improving and we hope to get a better idea of how global warming will affect IOD in the near future.

    Also Read: As El Niño Plays Villain, Could the Indian Ocean Dipole Save Monsoon 2019?

    (Views and opinions expressed in the interview are the interviewee's and do not necessarily reflect those of Weather.com)"

    Climate Change is as normal as the sun rising in the east each morning.

    We need to be good stewards of the resources here on earth... Stop.

    The Co2 issue is a small driver in the future of a warming global climate... the sun's activity is many amplitudes more important...

    Control the sun's activity.... then you have the key driver controlling earths climate...

    Human activity is a "natural" part of this ecosystem..and and has a "significant impact on global weather..."

    How "Evil" ends human history on tis planet... is a much more influential issue of concern... of course everything is related and connected...

    The Christmas "Story" of Love, forgiveness, and humans needing to focus on overcoming greed and selfishness... is where our focus needs to be.

    95% of the world now has Cellular phone service... with Satphone it is 100%.

    Never have so many people been so well fed.

    We need to be thankful for the blessings we have been given... and share them with those less fortunate.

    Happy New Year... Have a Great 2020!!

    MAY JESUS BE THE REASON FOR THE SEASON...

    Love in our hearts... should mean we care for each other and share our blessings....

    Have a wonderful day! God Bless you one and all!!!

    #2
    Tom

    You already posted this on the thread "Olive Branch to Chuck" .

    Does it really need a thread of it's own? Seems to me your preaching to yourself when it comes to forgiving and not being greedy.

    How many of your personal battles have we heard from you in the past couple of years?

    Comment


      #3
      Nothing to see here Tom old news and views

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by malleefarmer View Post
        Nothing to see here Tom old news and views
        Sorry that your pain and drought in AU is so devastating...

        'Heartbreaking year': North-west Victoria receives lowest yearly rainfall totals on record
        ABC Mildura-Swan Hill By Sean Wales and Angus Verley
        Updated about 9 hours ago

        Sand building up along a fence in the Millewa.
        PHOTO: Sand drift along a fence in a paddock in the Millewa. (ABC News: Leonie Thorne)
        RELATED STORY: How grain growers are still harvesting crops in droughtRELATED STORY: Drought-hit farmers offered super-cheap loans in $500m stimulus packageRELATED STORY: Millions committed for water infrastructure to help drought-ravaged communities
        Victoria's north-west has recorded its worst year of rainfall on record, with farmers in parts of the Mallee experiencing back-to-back failed harvests.

        Key points:

        Farmers in Victoria's north-west say they're trying to stay positive despite a "devastating" year
        The Mallee and Millewa regions saw record-low rainfall this year, smashing previous records set in 1982
        In the state's west, however, farmers are counting themselves extremely lucky to have reaped a bumper harvest
        Data from the Bureau of Meteorology shows 116.5 millimetres of rain has been recorded at Mildura Airport this year, breaking the previous record low of 121.6mm set in 1982.

        Further west of Mildura, in the Millewa region, farmers have had a devastating year, with just 90mm of rain recorded at Werrimull, also breaking the record set there in 1982.

        "We've only seen 2.5mm of rain fall in December in Mildura and temperatures have been right above average," BOM senior forecaster Michael Efron said.

        "They've been really hit not just this year, but the last few years as well, and we've seen crops struggling."

        "It doesn't look too promising in terms of rainfall in the next few months."
        Farmers in the state's south-east have had a similarly tough year, experiencing their third year of drought.

        Build up of sandy top soil next to a fence line in Giffard.
        PHOTO: Daily dust storms in parts of Victoria caused sandy top soil to build up along fences and roads. (ABC Rural: Isabella Pittaway)
        'We need to be positive'

        Despite the lack of rainfall in the north-west, farmers are trying to stay upbeat.

        Ron Hards farms in the Millewa region and said he received 65mm of rain during the growing season.

        "We usually average 250mm and the growing season is the really important one.

        "Some properties had about 28mm, and absolutely nothing was growing on those properties.

        "It's been a devastating year."
        Australia's drought crisis

        Australia's drought crisis
        Full coverage of the crippling dry conditions affecting large swathes of eastern Australia in what some are calling the worst drought in living memory.
        Mr Hards said it has been a drier year than in 1982, when the Millewa received 104mm.

        "This is our driest year ever," he said.

        "Hopefully we can turn over a new leaf with the new year and it might be better.

        "It was a pretty heartbreaking year but we need to be positive.

        "The Millewa is very productive most years — we know it's dry and dusty now, but everyone has a drought.

        "This one is a beauty, but everyone has their day."
        Drone vision of sand drift on a road in the Millewa.
        PHOTO: Some properties in the region are only accessible by four-wheel drive. (ABC Rural: Cherie von Hörchner)
        Bumper harvest in the west

        It's a very different story further south, with Wimmera and Southern Mallee farmers enjoying a strong harvest.

        West Wimmera farmer Jonathan Dyer said despite the rainfall being just below average, he is enjoying good yields.

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-31/north-west-victoria-record-low-rainfall/11834496

        Indian Ocean linked to bushfires and drought in Australia
        November 28, 2013 5.12am EST
        Author

        Wenju Cai
        Researcher, CSIRO

        Disclosure statement

        Wenju Cai received funding from Australian Climate Change Science Programme and the Goyder Research Institute.
        Partners

        CSIRO

        CSIRO provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU.

        View all partners

        CC BY ND
        We believe in the free flow of information
        Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under Creative Commons licence.


        Republish this article

        Cooling oceans off the coast of Indonesia can create bushfire weather in Australia. AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts
        Email
        Twitter33
        Facebook145
        LinkedIn
        Print
        In a study released today in Nature Geoscience, we show that extreme weather events in Australia such as drought and bushfire are linked to temperature changes in the Indian Ocean. Much like El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole has far-reaching consequences, and these effects are likely to strengthen under climate change.

        What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?

        Like El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interaction between the ocean and atmosphere.

        The IOD appears and develops in the Southern Hemisphere winter and matures in spring. In its positive phase, which is the one that interests us most, sea temperatures off the cost of Sumatra and Java are lower than normal. Meanwhile in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, off the coast of Kenya, sea temperatures are warmer.

        (The IOD also has a negative phase, but this is much rarer, and its effects much more benign.)

        These seemingly small changes in sea temperature have profound effects on the atmosphere. Convection — rising warm, moist air — and rainfall tend to follow the warmest sea temperatures. So changes in sea temperature dramatically alter atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution.

        The result, in the case of the IOD, is extreme weather in many parts of the world, including severe droughts in Indonesia and devastating floods in East African countries.

        For Australia, our research confirmed links between this Indian Ocean phenomenon and extreme weather events in southeast Australia, for example, bushfires such as those that occurred on Black Saturday.

        During a positive IOD event, south east Australia sees decreased rainfall and increased temperatures. This is because much of the moisture supplying rainfall over south east Australia in winter and spring come from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Less rain and clear skies lead to higher temperatures than normal."

        I had not seen the Indian Dipole mentioned here... it is having global effect... and is why our grain prices are rising in Canada... to a large extent...

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by TOM4CWB View Post
          Sorry that your pain and drought in AU is so devastating...

          'Heartbreaking year': North-west Victoria receives lowest yearly rainfall totals on record
          ABC Mildura-Swan Hill By Sean Wales and Angus Verley
          Updated about 9 hours ago

          Sand building up along a fence in the Millewa.
          PHOTO: Sand drift along a fence in a paddock in the Millewa. (ABC News: Leonie Thorne)
          RELATED STORY: How grain growers are still harvesting crops in droughtRELATED STORY: Drought-hit farmers offered super-cheap loans in $500m stimulus packageRELATED STORY: Millions committed for water infrastructure to help drought-ravaged communities
          Victoria's north-west has recorded its worst year of rainfall on record, with farmers in parts of the Mallee experiencing back-to-back failed harvests.

          I had not seen the Indian Dipole mentioned here... it is having global effect... and is why our grain prices are rising in Canada... to a large extent...
          This can't be good...

          https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-31/victoria-bushfire-trapping-people-in-east-gippsland-live-blog/11833630

          Bushfires in Victoria and NSW ripping through communities including Mallacoota, Batemans Bay and Cobargo
          Huge fires continue to rage in Victoria and NSW, with two people confirmed to have died as flames destroyed parts of the town of Cobargo this morning.

          Over the border in East Gippsland, thousands of people were forced to take shelter on the waterfront of the town of Mallacoota.

          Look back through how the day unfolded."

          Hope the rains come soon... will be a hard summer down under...

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by TOM4CWB View Post
            This can't be good...

            https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-31/victoria-bushfire-trapping-people-in-east-gippsland-live-blog/11833630

            Bushfires in Victoria and NSW ripping through communities including Mallacoota, Batemans Bay and Cobargo
            Huge fires continue to rage in Victoria and NSW, with two people confirmed to have died as flames destroyed parts of the town of Cobargo this morning.

            Over the border in East Gippsland, thousands of people were forced to take shelter on the waterfront of the town of Mallacoota.

            Look back through how the day unfolded."

            Hope the rains come soon... will be a hard summer down under...
            From my broker:


            "· Good Morning and Happy New Year’s Eve!
            · Bert is out of the office for the week
            · Kevin & I (Tyler) will be at the desk

            Grains & Oilseeds

            · Prices are mixed this morning
            · Soybeans continue to lead the way with the bulk of the trade optimism focused on the soy complex
            · Large overnight gains in palm oil is also helping to push soyoil into new highs
            · Chinese Post announced that VP Liu would be travelling to the US on Saturday to sign phase 1 of the trade deal
            · If this is the case, this should be positive towards prices as trade was looking for signing to happen sometime late January
            · With all this trade progress and ending stocks projected to be 475 million bushels down from 913 million last year I believe there is still room for upside in soybeans
            · Targeting a time frame of now to March to start getting some first sales on the books
            · Still working option spread positions to put hedges on for Nov 2020 soybeans – Need price to reach $9.82 approximately for these orders to be filled
            o Buying 980 put, selling 880 put, selling 1080 call for a total cost of $0.15
            o $1.00 of downside hedge protection
            o $1.00 of upside market participation
            o Call for more details
            · I like the above spread as I believe it is good value for the hedge protection you get and still allows you to make sales a higher levels
            · SA new crop will hit the market in March and with the improved weather as of late it is looking like it will be another large crop
            · Although China buying large amounts of beans from the US is positive, this will displace some current demand which large SA crops will fill
            · Corn prices were unable to hang onto early gains but still closed near unchanged on the day
            · Export sales on Friday were low which is somewhat disappointing
            · This is the time frame where the US has the best chance to see increased exports
            · Still believe prices should find support on overall trade optimism and opportunities for increased export business heading into march
            · USDA is still predicting approximately 94.1 million acres of corn will be planted this coming up year
            · Use rallies to start making sales for next year’s production
            · Have been selling Dec 2020 Corn between $4.00 and $4.10
            · Would add to positions at $4.10
            · Trying to sell Dec 2020 $4.40 call options for $0.20
            o Give us a call if you wish to review how these short call options work
            · Minn Spring Wheat led the way higher and was able to hold onto gains despite both CH and KC closing the day out lower
            · Concern over Black Sea region crop is helping to support
            · Targeting $6.00 to start making sales for Dec 2020 Minn Spring Wheat
            · Canola continues to follow strength in soybeans and SoyOil
            · Trend line resistance is up @ $481 for the week
            · Look to see if this level can continue to provide a ceiling on prices
            · Targeting $510 to start making sales for Nov 2020"

            Comment


              #7
              Post broker comments daily tom4cwb but guess your not allowed to will add to marketing component of this forum

              Comment

              • Reply to this Thread
              • Return to Topic List
              Working...