Here scientists tried to use their infallible theory to predict the voracity of hurricanes due to climate change.
So much for that effort. Hurricanes are not getting worse.
And just like Trudeau instead of admitting a failed theory, it becomes a learning and teaching moment for us all. And they carry on.
Now you can see for yourselves just how far off this settled science is.
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https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/a-pre-hurricane-climate-change-analysis-gets-major-revision-after-the-storm/ A pre-hurricane climate change analysis gets major revision after the storm
It was the first scientific attempt of its kind—assessing the impact of climate change on a hurricane before the storm had even made landfall. And the results (which we covered at the time) were remarkable, suggesting that 2018's Hurricane Florence would be dropping 50 percent more rainfall and span an extra 80 kilometers (50 miles) because of a warmer world.
Increased rainfall would hardly be a surprise. Results from many previous tropical cyclones have found that a warmer atmosphere, which holds more moisture, is expected to boost storm precipitation totals. But 50 percent would be exceptional, as previous studies had fallen somewhere between 6 and 38 percent, depending on the storm.
A quick simulation of Hurricane Florence done without climate change
The scientists weren't able to explain why they got that high number at the time, considering they had only a few days to get the model forecast simulations run and out the door. With the benefit of time, the scientists have now published an evaluation of their groundbreaking effort. Unfortunately, it shows that mistakes were made.
After fixing that error, their 100 "counterfactual" simulations show a much smaller influence of climate change. Rather than something like 50 percent of the rainfall being the result of a warmer world, the models actually show about five percent (and that's ±5). And rather than a storm that is 80 kilometers wider because of climate change, it was about nine kilometers (±6) wider.
So much for that effort. Hurricanes are not getting worse.
And just like Trudeau instead of admitting a failed theory, it becomes a learning and teaching moment for us all. And they carry on.
Now you can see for yourselves just how far off this settled science is.
---------
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/a-pre-hurricane-climate-change-analysis-gets-major-revision-after-the-storm/ A pre-hurricane climate change analysis gets major revision after the storm
It was the first scientific attempt of its kind—assessing the impact of climate change on a hurricane before the storm had even made landfall. And the results (which we covered at the time) were remarkable, suggesting that 2018's Hurricane Florence would be dropping 50 percent more rainfall and span an extra 80 kilometers (50 miles) because of a warmer world.
Increased rainfall would hardly be a surprise. Results from many previous tropical cyclones have found that a warmer atmosphere, which holds more moisture, is expected to boost storm precipitation totals. But 50 percent would be exceptional, as previous studies had fallen somewhere between 6 and 38 percent, depending on the storm.
A quick simulation of Hurricane Florence done without climate change
The scientists weren't able to explain why they got that high number at the time, considering they had only a few days to get the model forecast simulations run and out the door. With the benefit of time, the scientists have now published an evaluation of their groundbreaking effort. Unfortunately, it shows that mistakes were made.
After fixing that error, their 100 "counterfactual" simulations show a much smaller influence of climate change. Rather than something like 50 percent of the rainfall being the result of a warmer world, the models actually show about five percent (and that's ±5). And rather than a storm that is 80 kilometers wider because of climate change, it was about nine kilometers (±6) wider.
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