24 cent red lentils

[TASFarms]

24 cent red lentils. How much higher are they going to go?

[bucket]

Tight hands will hold for 35 but may never see it...

Chances are if India wants product in a couple months they have to start buying now for logistic purposes...

My hope is they use an opportunity to sell to India as an opportunity to settle some outstanding barriers once and for all...

There were alot of fields of lentils abandoned this year....not many reports of it but it happened....Production numbers are not finalized yet....plus they have probably heard guys are sick of growing pulse crops ....headers and combines are not cheap ....

Watch the new crop bids ....22 -25 cent new crop gets the traditional stone free land interested...crop production show use to be the place to get an indication of the new crop bids

Then there is the disease cycle taking away acres as well... feed grains provide some relief from disease issue and be price competitive....

disclaimer:....Just random thoughts...dumphuckled farmer...tm.

[bigzee]

Turkey and Pakistan are at the plate buying, also India. There are a lot of bins full of reds, these prices should open a few doors.
Only thing is the auger has to get started to empty them. Most wont take advantage of these prices considering they were .20 not long ago.
Again, greed will set in, and .20 will be right back.

[bucket]

Unfortunately I sold on the way up to 20 cents.....and not bitter ...they are gone....can't bring them back....

More interested in new crop bids....

[bigzee]

Friend of mine said .20 you sell, they will be .15 shortly .... now look.
Who knows anymore!!
All I know is at .20 and the cost of equipment and repairs after cutting pulses these prices don’t “cut it” anymore.

[sumdumguy]

You are right Bigzee, those were the prices in 1980. Isn’t it 2020? that’s FORTY years!

[bigzee]

You are right Bigzee, those were the prices in 1980. Isn’t it 2020? that’s FORTY years!

Found some old lentil receipts from 1995.
Sold large greens to Vigro Seed for .20, now if that doesn’t make you shake your head.
Twenty five years ago and today’s prices are pretty much the same.

[bucket]

Found some old lentil receipts from 1995.
Sold large greens to Vigro Seed for .20, now if that doesn’t make you shake your head.
Twenty five years ago and today’s prices are pretty much the same.

Yup and the logic from our wonderful farm groups is that average prices for lentils is 20 cents....

In 1997 a new JD 9500 c/w pickup was $155000...lentils prices may have been in that 20 cents range....

Point being a new combine is 5 times the 155000 ....lentils are still 20 cents ....so guys try to grow more with even higher inputs only to have lower prices...in the end...

I know the saying ...the cure for low prices is low prices and the cure for high prices is high prices...

But that only works for grain...doesn't work for machinery, fuel or other inputs....

[dave4441]

The move from 20 to 24 has been shocking to say the least. This isn't so much about India but India has been buying all along at some level and paying the tariffs. Doesn't look like much will change on the tariff front. Heck in Sept/Oct India took 170,000 MT of lentils and paid the tariff. They will keep it in place to help growers which are half of their population.

It feels like a shift in demand from previous years, but don't get focused on the idea that a change in tariff will change the buying. Their current crop looks poor but other countries are doing the buying today. Incidentally, India has had tariffs in place for 40 years. Only recently did they remove them for a few years than applying them back on. But other destinations like Turkey and Pakistan have been the buyer and tariffs are not an issue in those countries.

24/25 is likely the peak of the market though. Cant state enough how big of shift in pricing this is compared to the outlook in the fall. Best to scale sales into the rally. Personally i think 25 is the peak but time will tell. We will have still 500,000 to 750,000 carryout of lentils Aug 1 2020. Granted a portion of that will be low quality.

[TASFarms]

The move from 20 to 24 has been shocking to say the least. This isn't so much about India but India has been buying all along at some level and paying the tariffs. Doesn't look like much will change on the tariff front. Heck in Sept/Oct India took 170,000 MT of lentils and paid the tariff. They will keep it in place to help growers which are half of their population.

It feels like a shift in demand from previous years, but don't get focused on the idea that a change in tariff will change the buying. Their current crop looks poor but other countries are doing the buying today. Incidentally, India has had tariffs in place for 40 years. Only recently did they remove them for a few years than applying them back on. But other destinations like Turkey and Pakistan have been the buyer and tariffs are not an issue in those countries.

24/25 is likely the peak of the market though. Cant state enough how big of shift in pricing this is compared to the outlook in the fall. Best to scale sales into the rally. Personally i think 25 is the peak but time will tell. We will have still 500,000 to 750,000 carryout of lentils Aug 1 2020. Granted a portion of that will be low quality.

I think stats can over estimated this years crop. Was there much of the previous year’s crop still in the bin?

[dave4441]

I think stats can over estimated this years crop. Was there much of the previous year’s crop still in the bin?

Yeah, my guess is about 800,000 MT of old crop and we ship about 2 MMT. So yes carryin is a issue and will affect what level of rally we can have. We are 6 months into the crop year, new crop reds start harvest in 7 months.

We dont have enough time to actually tighten Canadian stocks enough in my opinion.

[farming101]

Sask bids over the years

[GDR]

From a guy that knows nothing about lentils, is there a reason that they sell by cwt? Is there no standardized bushel weight?

Do they fix nitrogen comparable to peas?

At the 24 cents you are talking about are they profitable? What are normal yields?

[bigzee]

From a guy that knows nothing about lentils, is there a reason that they sell by cwt? Is there no standardized bushel weight?

Do they fix nitrogen comparable to peas?

At the 24 cents you are talking about are they profitable? What are normal yields?

They fix N like peas!
They are more profitable at .24 then .20 is all I’m going to say.
Yield is like anything .... you need moisture.

[sumdumguy]

They were great in their hayday. 20 cents and thirty bushels was gravy train in 1980. No flex headers and open Versatile swathers and we thought we were partying, even with grasshoppers in our teeth and bleeding knuckles from fixing teeth. 👍 Now its too easy and they are overproduced. Just my HO. I’ve just pulled my helmet on.