Tough times ahead for Ag

[furrowtickler]

Agree Cuban , I said the same for a while .
Too many hands in the cookie jar .
There is simply not enough return to supply everyone in Ag a big high paying job and benefits anymore, actually there never was. The Ag industry as a whole and extremely poor Ag politics and vision have left the cupboards bare.
Areas that have struggled the past few years with poor harvests are one thing, add in drastic drop in grades and yields in others due to early frosts and lack of rains and you get even a more dismal picture of reality that some are facing .
One thing to struggle to get a 60-70 bus crop off , but an entirely different situation when yields are 1/2 that and grade discounts take all profits away but still keep just above crop insurance levels .
A lot of “extras” have been cut from this area a while ago.
Basically the risk factor has gone up way too high for a lot of areas to indulge in all the extras.
The past three summers we have had only 4-5 in rain in the growing season followed by early frosts . Don’t make sense to spend an extra dollar than need be to get an average crop cause that’s all you will get with limited untimely rains.

[ajl]

I've said it before, everyone ******* about land prices but that's not the problem. It's the equipment, parts and input prices along with the market's that are in collusion with each other. The price of land has gone up for sure, but it's an asset that's going to be there forever. Who's 9600 or 2188 is still worth what they paid? Part's are absolutely out of control, and inputs should be in line with commodity prices. But, farmers have no choice but to pay the price. You just said it, 70,000 dollar Laramie, that will be in a car crusher in 5 years, and guys think land is overpriced?

Send any and all $70000 Laramies destined for the crusher to my yard. My truck is an 06 Ram diesel with 212000 on the clock. It will be running around for a least another decade and yes land prices are also silly right now and only a function of the governments dedication to manufacturing inflation. Once they can't do that, that price gets reset as well.

[Partners]

For some farmers times are tuff regardless of times.
In the 80's when wht was 8 bucks.
We had many neighbors screw the system and declared bankruptcy.
Inputs were tiny compared to now.
High priced land makes us all worth more at retirement. Or if you need collateral for a loan.
Who wants to be worthless?
Some farmers would he broke even if wht was 10 or more bucks..
Spend within your means..

[bucket]

"""":We had many neighbors screw the system and declared bankruptcy..."""""

Yup and there is a second generation gearing up to do it all again....because the people in the lenders office are rookies....

[Horse]

I had to check twice to see if this is agriville,there hasnt been anything except whine,moan,piss,over how bad ag is !!! Now alls well and everyone is admiting to being very well off.....WOW
And still a liberal gov,,go figure
Sarcasm intended

[FarmJunkie]

Farmers just don’t change. We are doing this all for pennies on the dollar. Don’t plant a crop and see what happens. Trouble is too many took the bait and have no choice but to go row with slaves. Pissing and moaning won’t change a thing til u hit them and I mean all them where it matters most. Keep buying and planting and u feed the beast.

[burnt]

Merle asks the question -

:0

[Oliver88]

"""":We had many neighbors screw the system and declared bankruptcy..."""""

Yup and there is a second generation gearing up to do it all again....because the people in the lenders office are rookies....

Ritchie Bros will be there to help when the party is over for the second time.

[GALAXIE500]

Partners said it perfectly , and thank you for saying the obvious, SPEND WITHIN YOUR MEANS ! Around our operation we have a line of machinery that could be termed " a working museum" but it is well maintained and paid for. We have replaced stuff on a budget , fixed and rebuilt the entire operation on a limited budget ( thanks to my wife who works off farm ) and we are saving for our son's university education. In the 20 years that I have been on our place full time , I have seen a lot of neighbors spend a LOT of money on machinery and land , when they were very well off with what they had. Yes I am envious, sorry for that , but that is what it is. As far as weathering the storm , we have been there and done it . I know a lot of people in this area that better start doing their math better or they are going to be in for a rude awakening.

[SASKFARMER]

Galaxie you're not alone. Some on here are farming a bit and have Zero Operating debt or opp lines, they pay cash. Some have Zero equipment debt or very little, Some have zero land debt or maybe a quarter. Some have million-dollar savings accounts. Some have a property in other countries and own other businesses. Some have shares in companies that would blow people away at the amount.

But the real problem that anyone with money realises before others is that when an investment gets bad its time to get out or change things.

Farming has once been a good thing and yes it goes in cycles but lately, the focus on all others and nothing on the farmer's problems is starting to hit home. Last week in saskatoon it was all about keeping the industry happy with loans grants etc. No one mentioned without the farmer all would fail.

But we did this to our selves with useless fools running farmer boards and doing nothing but becoming yes men for industry and gov.

Will it change I doubt it as pigs need to be fed and gov will give money to them any day and hope farmers just get bigger and bigger.

Other countries are moving ahead in Ag and we topped and are dropping.

[jazz]

Kevin Hursh predictions for next 10 yrs;

1. Glyphosate and other critical herbicides will be banned or severely restricted
2. Climate fanatics have gotten into every level of society and will be impossible to reverse that trend. Which means ag is a target.
3. Interest rates to rise, land values cooling
4. Some token extra processing for protein from canola and pulses might get a leg up here. I will believe that when I see it.

Very few positives.

https://www.producer.com/2020/01/fearless-predictions-for-the-decade-ahead/ Fearless predictions for the decade ahead

[bucket]

Kevin Hursh predictions for next 10 yrs;

1. Glyphosate and other critical herbicides will be banned or severely restricted
2. Climate fanatics have gotten into every level of society and will be impossible to reverse that trend. Which means ag is a target.
3. Interest rates to rise, land values cooling
4. Some token extra processing for protein from canola and pulses might get a leg up here. I will believe that when I see it.

Very few positives.

https://www.producer.com/2020/01/fearless-predictions-for-the-decade-ahead/ Fearless predictions for the decade ahead

If governments and others don't start understanding the value of farmers pretty quick....everything above won't matter anyway...The FSU is eating our lunch and cake as well...

Besides Hursh is making money writing that ....