Flu

[helmsdale]

Update on my spreadsheeted numbers...

-Global death rate as a function of infection bottomed out on feb 4/5 2020, and has consistently risen ever since to currently sit at 3.65%. It has been jumping daily between 0.01 and 0.08%. No clear pattern to whether it is increasing or decreasing in rate of incline.

-Global death rate as a function of recovery: [deaths/(deaths+recovered)] bottomed at 5.67% mar 7, 2020, and has now started to climb. Currently sitting at 6.35%.

-Death rates as a function of confirmed infected 1 day all the way through 32 days are all climbing. deaths/confirmed infected 10 days ago, is currently the lowest at 5.21%, but after bottoming at 3.89% on feb 27 2020, it has been steadily climbing, and its rate of climb is increasing.

Take from these numbers what you will.

[biglentil]

From member of the Stanford hospital board. This is their feedback for now on Corona virus:* The new Coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days. How can one know if he/she is infected? By the time they have fever and/or cough and go to the hospital, the lung is usually 50% Fibrosis and it's too late. Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning. Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stiffness or tightness, etc., it proves there is no Fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicates no infection. In critical time, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air. Serious excellent advice by Japanese doctors treating COVID-19 cases: Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat are moist, never dry. Take a few sips of water every 15 minutes at least. Why? Even if the virus gets into your mouth, drinking water or other liquids will wash them down through your throat and into the stomach. Once there, your stomach acid will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly, the virus can enter your windpipe and into the lungs. That's very dangerous. Please send and share this with family and friends. Take care everyone and may the world recover from this Coronavirus soon. IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS 1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold 2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose. 3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun. 4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne. 5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap. 6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it. 7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice. 8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on. 9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice. 10. Can't emphasis enough - drink plenty of water! THE SYMPTOMS 1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further. 3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing. 4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

[malleefarmer]

Every medical report shows it is far more contagious than the flu, tonnes of health care workers are catching it despite full PPE. Hospitals are being overwhelmed in a matter of weeks everywhere an outbreak occurs.

Current data shows it is far more dangerous than the flu. Breathing difficulties are a common symptom. The common flu doesn't cause countries to run out of respirators within weeks of a cluster outbreak. Italy is now saying they won't treat people over 60 years old in the ICU as they simply don't have the resources... It's been 3 weeks. What is it going to look like in 2 months.

Things like this don't happen with the a typical flu.

I doubt the 3% is right due to the lack of testing
, but the death rate if that were to be true, if half the world got infected would be 105,000,000 deaths.

I'll reiterate I think lots of people have it that aren't tested therefore the death rate is probably too high, but working on the stats we do have, it is 20-30x more deadly than the flu. And so many people are saying the media is dramatising it.

Guess I see this way different than most on here

[malleefarmer]

For what it’s worth

[biglentil]

Death vs Recovered is 47% in Italy significantly worse than a few days ago. Not a good trend especially since their icu's are now full. US deaths vs recovered ratio is even worse. Not sure how these numbers will ever drop to low single digits. This could and likely will play out over many years.

[helmsdale]

This is wild!

Korea has been testing as hard as they can. They test asymptomatic individuals that have come into contact with others whi have tested positive... italy, france, canada, us, etc, are testing only those who show symptoms, or at worst require hospitalization. 20-29 year olds are literally carrying this thing everywhere!

[fjlip]

Wonder why Russia and India so insignificant infected? Crowded India, far from CLEAN...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[biglentil]

4 cases of the virus confirmed in Sask now, but do you think they will say where? South Korea alerts everyone exactly where each case was found, provide a text message to people in the area to keep people away, and trace down people who the infected may have come in contact with, and quarantine them. We have the alert system already in place that could do just that. That's how you stamp this out.

Here they are too worried to offend someone's privacy. Fkin idiots will cost many lives instead. If you must go in public put a mask on the virus can hang in the air for up to 3hrs (yes its aerosolized) and it's not just for your sake but mostly for those around you if you have it. Be an example and when you see someone in public without tell em to wear a mask go home or better yet hand them one. Only go out for essentials Stay home ! We as a society need to wake the **** up, work together or this is going to turn into Italy here.

[biglentil]

From a Respiratory Critical Care specialist in the USA.

Dear Friends and Dear Public:

I am making an appeal as a Pulmonary physician to all of you.

As extreme and exaggerated the measures we are instituting might seem, this time it IS for REAL. This is NOT the flu. This is 15 times deadlier.

We need to stay at home and only go out for the most important necessities.

For the children and adolescents: being off from school is so we can stay home and be socially isolated. This is the ONLY way to stop the spreading of the virus. Young people typically do not suffer from a severe or fatal illness; however if they take this home, their loved ones might get sick and even die. Be very, very careful with loved ones who are diabetic, asthmatic, hypertensive older than 60, have chronic lung, and/or heart diseases. They will get Deadly sick if infected.

In Italy people are dying NOT just of the coronavirus infections, but from regular diseases that are treatable because the viral cases are overwhelming the healthcare system.

We have 62,000 mechanical ventilators and 95,000 ICU beds in the USA. We already have 80-85% of these in use due to influenza, bacterial pneumonia and other illnesses. If we face a surge of viral pneumonia many, many people will die.

Please help your communities by staying home for now. Staying home saves lives.

[jazz]

There was a guy on CNN last night who went over this virus in pretty good detail. Although it can be community transmitted, those cases are a tiny fraction of the sick. Turns out this is a highly contact disease. A lot of the people who got it were isolated and self quarantined in their homes and got other family members sick. He suggested the sick should have been fully isolated in fever clinics instead of being sent home.