Flu

[helmsdale]

If it actually came from bats Chinese would of killed em all. Maybe it's because they know it came from their BSL 4 Bioweapons lab.

[farming101]

At the state level it gets even worse. NY returned 47.9% positive (8669+ of 18085 tests) on the tests it submitted in today's numbers (yesterdays results i would assume?)

They currently have 92,381+, 13,383 in hospital (compared to 28540 for the whole country of Italy), and 3396 of those are in ICU.

NJ returned 51.6% of its tests reported today as positive. (3335+ out of 6468 tests)

California returned 33.7% of its tests as positive that were reported today.

SK numbers:

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I fail to see the point in posting such useless statistics. As noted before, it takes much longer to recover than it does to die, so at the beginning, this stat will be completely skewed. We test 100% of the really severe cases, and those that end in death, and test an unknown percentage of those who recover without hospitalisation or show no symptoms at all, you have a known number divided by a complete unknown variable, the result is also unknown, or the margin or error is massive. A couple of months from now, with everyone getting tested, go ahead and post such stats, right now, it is worse than useless.

I was looking for an analogy as to why those stats are worthless, and even dangerous.

Best I can come up with is looking at the stats of a baseball game half way through the first inning, when one team hasn't even been at bat yet, and extrapolating them out for the entire game.

[TOM4CWB]

I was looking for an analogy as to why those stats are worthless, and even dangerous.

Best I can come up with is looking at the stats of a baseball game half way through the first inning, when one team hasn't even been at bat yet, and extrapolating them out for the entire game.

How Countries come up with their Corvid-19 strategies...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[biglentil]

I was looking for an analogy as to why those stats are worthless, and even dangerous.

Best I can come up with is looking at the stats of a baseball game half way through the first inning, when one team hasn't even been at bat yet, and extrapolating them out for the entire game.

Your welcome to put your head in the sand if you cant handle the data
AF5. Instead of bashing me I would prefer rational discussion like maybe they have no test kits, maybe Brits are lacking Vitamin D, maybe something in their diet is exacerbating the virus? Has the virus mutated? Canada's recovery rate is many fold better what is the difference? Maybe the stat is bullshit but they arent the only country with a higher than 80% death rate in closed cases. Ireland 95% and Netherlands 84%. What's the link? I'm looking for answers, instead of nipping at my ankles offer something constructive.

[the big wheel]

Hard to say if we re doing good or not. It depends whether everyone is reporting the same way also. What I’ve been hearing is that to downplay the disease some places are listing pneumonia and asthma etc as the cause of death when in fact the virus caused the pneumonia. Etc. If 2 places aren’t reporting those examples the same way then the info is not valuable.

In our community there has been a higher than usual death loss to those causes pneumonia heart asthma yet I don’t think they’ve been tested going back to late December through until now. Are others hearing that some who claim they have rhe symptoms still can’t get tested here?

[farming101]

Your welcome to put your head in the sand if you cant handle the data
AF5. Instead of bashing me I would prefer rational discussion like maybe they have no test kits, maybe Brits are lacking Vitamin D, maybe something in their diet is exacerbating the virus? Has the virus mutated? Canada's recovery rate is many fold better what is the difference? Maybe the stat is bullshit but they arent the only country with a higher than 80% death rate in closed cases. Ireland 95% and Netherlands 84%. What's the link? I'm looking for answers, instead of nipping at my ankles offer something constructive.

It could be all of what you are wondering about. AF5's post above suggested it is at the beginning

I fail to see the point in posting such useless statistics. As noted before, it takes much longer to recover than it does to die, so at the beginning, this stat will be completely skewed. We test 100% of the really severe cases, and those that end in death, and test an unknown percentage of those who recover without hospitalisation or show no symptoms at all, you have a known number divided by a complete unknown variable, the result is also unknown, or the margin or error is massive. A couple of months from now, with everyone getting tested, go ahead and post such stats, right now, it is worse than useless.

So, statistics cannot give any kind of reliable prediction as to trajectory or a conclusion. There are only interpretations made using few or many inputs and parameters. It needs to play out. Statisticians are data pigs, they always take all that is given them. If not given enough data or bogus data it is wise not to conclude much.
There are no two nations or populations that are identical. Neither will the outcome be identical in any country. One thing is for sure, if people are falling sick and dying that shouldn't be, it would be wise to pay attention
Take a look at how this entry starts out with regard to the Spanish flu. No one knows for sure how many deaths can actually be blamed directly on it. You'd think studying it for 100 years would get you to some conclusion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[wd9]

In Guayaquil Ecuador, they are leaving dead bodies in the streets to be picked up, hundreds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/

[furrowtickler]

In Guayaquil Ecuador, they are leaving dead bodies in the streets to be picked up, hundreds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ecuador-bodies-streets-guayaquil-coronavirus-covid-19/

Mallee said , temp don’t matter . That proves his point again . Scary stuff

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Your welcome to put your head in the sand if you cant handle the data
AF5. Instead of bashing me I would prefer rational discussion like maybe they have no test kits, maybe Brits are lacking Vitamin D, maybe something in their diet is exacerbating the virus? Has the virus mutated? Canada's recovery rate is many fold better what is the difference? Maybe the stat is bullshit but they arent the only country with a higher than 80% death rate in closed cases. Ireland 95% and Netherlands 84%. What's the link? I'm looking for answers, instead of nipping at my ankles offer something constructive.

Sorry if I come across as attacking you, not the intention at all. I've offered my appreciation on the information you have been bringing. I take exception to you going down the conspiracy theory route, it may be true, but it isn't helpful at all at this point, nor is it proven or provable, lets stick with dealing with the real crisis, and play the blame game after sorting this out.

But abusing and misusing a meaningless statistic is not helpful. If that stat holds true months from now, then I owe you an apology, if any of us survive long enough to do that. But the realistic stats from areas with much longer data do not give credibility to a 96% death rate, for the reasons I listed above.