Flu

[fjlip]

I guess we will see how the virus plays out, but why are not the stats of "other flu" compared to Corona? Way more effects, CDC estimates, perhaps they are not keeping track. Verify these if in doubt.

[biglentil]

If you think this is a normal flu you need to watch this video inside a Wuhan hospital.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=DUDN_1580431941

[WiltonRanch]

If you think this is a normal flu you need to watch this video inside a Wuhan hospital.
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=DUDN_1580431941

That’s creepy out of a movie.

[fjlip]

In 2018 in just the United States.

600,000 people died from cancer.
88,000 alcohol related
80,000 people died of the flu.
72,000 people died from drug overdoses.
40,000 were killed in traffic accidents.
25,000 firearm suicides.
15,000 other firearm related deaths.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

In 2018 in just the United States.

600,000 people died from cancer.
88,000 alcohol related
80,000 people died of the flu.
72,000 people died from drug overdoses.
40,000 were killed in traffic accidents.
25,000 firearm suicides.
15,000 other firearm related deaths.

Which reminds us that humans just aren't very good at prioritizing, or keeping things in perspective.

[biglentil]

Seems the no more dangerous than the flu propaganda is working. Its 3-4 times more contagious than the flu and 30 to 100 times more lethal. (Since the reported number of deaths is around the same number of recovered it's too early to give a firm number) What makes it particularly dangerous is during 2 week incubation period the patient is infectious without symptoms. Also since this is a new pathogen there is no herd immunity. The doubling period of new cases is approximately 7 days. One computer model suggests the entire globe will be infected in 120 days.

Though the data is limited the good news is those of European descent seem to have milder symptoms.

It may be a brutal lesson in exponential growth or it will be contained. Place your bets.

[fjlip]

Read in a few articles, "flu is reduced/goes away when it warms up".... Flu's all start when drier/colder. WOW the cure/prevention is a warming planet, we really NEED Climate Change for warmer. And "you people" want it colder to KILL more humans! HOW DARE YOU GRETA!

[Sodbuster]

Read in a few articles, "flu is reduced/goes away when it warms up".... Flu's all start when drier/colder. WOW the cure/prevention is a warming planet, we really NEED Climate Change for warmer. And "you people" want it colder to KILL more humans! HOW DARE YOU GRETA!

Sounds like a good plan, I’m going down to Mexico for the rest of winter. Do you think I could write it off as a medical expense.

[helmsdale]

It may be a brutal lesson in exponential growth or it will be contained. Place your bets.

It simply hasn't been around long enough to get decent numbers with which to work...

A couple of things that make the [deaths:confirmed cases] ratio meaningless:

1) they simply aren't able to test everyone that *should* be tested due to:
a) lack of available test kits. They have a certain number that they divide out between all the various hospitals. Certainly the higher number hospitals will be getting more test kits, but I don't think it would be a stretch to say that they are behind at ALL the hospitals.
b) they can only test so many cases per day. The number that seems to stick with me is they have the ability to test 6000 cases in a 24 hr period over all the facilities that they can run the test at. Are all those tests making it there with an expedited courier overnight? Are ALL the testing facilities running at peak efficiency? It would be reasonable to assume that if 6000 is the max number of tests/day, there are going to be number of those come up negative, there will be a number of those that are spoiled for one reason or another, and there is likely a backlog at the locations closest to the hottest sources of the outbreak.
c) a number of people are simply not reporting to hospitals anymore knowing that they are absolutely over-run, the emergency telephone number is rumored to ring busy most all day long, and there is little to no real ability to even get yourself to the hospital in the event that you start to show serious symptoms, as personal transportation has been banned, taxis have been commandeered to do government work, etc...

One can either assume containment is working and that is why new cases seem to have plateaued at ~2500/day for the last 5 days, or that is roughly the maximum number of positive tests that they can come up with!

2) The exponential nature of the confirmed cases, and the fact that people dont die on the same day that they contract the virus means that those dying today were likely part of the "confirmed infections" from what... 5 days ago? 10 days ago? 15 days ago? If you compare the number of deaths to infections, we've been hovering in that 2-2.5% for roughly a week, but if you take a 5 day trailing number, we're closer to perhaps 5%, and if its 10 or greater, there simply aren't enough new numbers to make any sense of it. If we take the death rate and compare it to the recovery rate, we're looking at something like 40% mortality at the moment...

3) If someone is reported dead at home, or dies on the street, of what use is wasting a precious test kit on them? How many deaths are being wrote down officially as anything other than ncov-19 without actually doing a test?

As said in #2, we're currently sitting at ~2.1% mortality as a function of total confirmed cases, but as 1 through 3 show, that number is very likely to rise over the long term (at least in those areas that are the hottest).

AND... combine this with the unfortunate truth that the CCP is reporting what they want us to know... Have faith dear comrade, the Government would never stretch the truth!

Even if we sit at 2% mortality, that is wildly more deadly than seasonal flu.

The possibility that the R0 is said to be anywhere from 2-5, combined with observations that carriers are asymptomatic transmitters means this baby is highly contagious.

All this said... I see no way in which China can end the quarantine! If they can't end the quarantine, they are going to take the global economy for a spin around the drain... That does NOT give me a warm fuzzy about this upcoming year as far as global commodity prices are concerned!

[shtferbrains]

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-its-like-to-try-to-get-treatment-for-the-coronavirus-in-china?utm_source=pocket-newtab https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-its-like-to-try-to-get-treatment-for-the-coronavirus-in-china?utm_source=pocket-newtab

On the morning of January 18th, a seventy-nine-year-old resident of the central Chinese city of Wuhan, whom I’ll call Li, eagerly awaited the arrival of his daughter and her family, who were travelling from Shanghai to join him for the most important holiday on the Chinese calendar: the Lunar New Year. The festivities revolve around family meals, and, that afternoon, according to Phoenix Weekly, a political and cultural weekly magazine based in Hong Kong, Li rode his bicycle to the store to buy groceries. Halfway there, he began to feel weak, and fell off his bike. He was taken to a district clinic, where, owing to a lack of medical equipment—only X-ray machines were available—it was recommended that he go to a larger hospital. Around 5 P.M., he arrived with his daughter at the Wuhan Central hospital, where he waited five hours to see a doctor, who told him that he needed a CT scan of his lungs, for which there was a four-hour wait
Li went home, and, when he returned later, he was told to wait to see someone in the pulmonology department, where he finally got a scan. A pulmonologist said that the scan was worrying and told him to go to the emergency room, but there was a six-hour wait there, so Li went home again. The next day, a report showed an infection in sixty per cent of his lungs. Doctors suspected that he had contracted the new coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, the first cases of which had been reportedly identified in December, but they could not perform the tests to confirm it. The hospital was not an infectious-disease hospital, and, furthermore, Li’s family was told, staff members didn’t have the authority to make diagnoses themselves; they had to report cases to superiors and seek further consultation. Nor were there any quarantine rooms available.
Thus, according to Phoenix Weekly, began an ordeal, during which Li was bounced from one medical institution to another without being given a diagnosis or a bed. One night, when his fever had climbed and he had trouble breathing, Li’s daughter called the equivalent of 911—in China, the number is 120—for an ambulance. The dispatcher told her that, without confirmation of a diagnosis from a receiving hospital, he could not help her. Finally, an ambulance was sent, but Li was turned away from a couple of hospitals, which were already full. One told him that he should go back to Wuhan Central and insist on being admitted there, or get a transfer notice from it. Finally, at the fourth hospital the family tried, Li’s daughter and her husband, despondent and frustrated, started shouting in the E.R. waiting room. “If you don’t take my father,” she said, “he will die.” The family camped out in the waiting room, along with a crowd of other people.


There's the problem.


The rest of the New Yorker article gives some insight on how the CCP handles these situations.

I think I might just hermit up for a couple of weeks and see how this plays out.

Might be lots of cheap flights to book in the near term but never liked airports at their best.

Sure hope they can do better than their reputation.

[biglentil]

1 guy with the virus got on a Japanese cruise ship.

Total people on board: * * 3,700

Tested:**************** 273

Results received:*****31

Positive results:*******10

Just now another cruise ship quarantined in Hong Kong with 30 crew members with the symtoms. Talk about a bad vacation being quarantined on a coronavirus cruise ship.

[macdon02]

Stay calm..... stay calm.... stay calm.... OK GTFO!!!!!

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadians-get-out-of-china-even-if-it-means-taking-commercial-flight-foreign-affairs-minister

[jazz]

So let this sink in. Canada refuses to restrict travel from China as the US has already done. BTW Trump was branded a racist for doing that.

Now incubation period could be 3 weeks or more, meaning everyone quaruntined for 2 weeks may have still been a carrier or infected. There is almost 250-400M people in lockdown in China. The constructed hospitals look more like prisons, people being arrested for speaking out about the true numbers. Cases could be a lot higher. One cruise ship has hundreds of infected people. Transmission through touch, airborne, mucus membranes and your eye.

Like what does it have to become before our idiot govt actually puts in some real measures to deal with this?

[AC man]

If you think this is a normal flu you need to watch this video inside a Wuhan hospital.
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=DUDN_1580431941

Accidentally hit the like. What a scary scene!

[Taiga]

Over 100 people a day now dying in a country of 1.4B people.