Baltic Dry Index (Ocean Freight)

[errolanderson]

Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry.

[furrowtickler]

Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry.

Canola , wheat and most others have taken a beating as well .
Oh , fertilizers and other inputs going up here while in the US there inputs are dropping ie : fuel and fertilizer.

[Flatlander]

Errol is not worried about 5G, sounds like he is more worried about the 3 G’s -Gold, Guns, and a Getaway.

[Hamloc]

Commodities yikes! . . . lean hog collapse, copper, ocean freight fallout continues, soybeans breaking major support . . . . gold and silver power up on wall of worry.

Errol what do you think will turn this around, my personal opinion is the concern over the coronavirus is over blown but maybe I am wrong. Feeder cattle off a bit this week as well. Certainly a bad day for canola.

[biglentil]

Errol what do you think will turn this around, my personal opinion is the concern over the coronavirus is over blown but maybe I am wrong. Feeder cattle off a bit this week as well. Certainly a bad day for canola.

Or the response has been too little too late, and the consequences under blown. I'm not worried one bit about the sell off it grains, fear over the next 18 months could drive the prices higher than we have ever seen. Throw the TA out the window, this is a black swan event. Lock the ****in bins and throw away the key.

[farming101]

Little resistance to gold heading higher. Closes above the Jan 8 high should open up further gains.
A failure to reach the Jan 8 high by Feb 8 could result in a retracement before upward moves resume.
Timing is good.

[errolanderson]

[ATTACH]5535[/ATTACH]

Or the response has been too little too late, and the consequences under blown. I'm not worried one bit about the sell off it grains, fear over the next 18 months could drive the prices higher than we have ever seen. Throw the TA out the window, this is a black swan event. Lock the ****in bins and throw away the key.

biglentil . . . markets always react poorly to rising emotions. WHO has now declared a global emergency, which suggests more potential fallout near-term for commodities.

The hog fallout caught a lot of attention today. Soybeans broke key support of $8.85/bu on the March contract, which caught my eye. Brutal close today . . . weekly chart points toward $8.55/bu on the beans, which unfortunately suggests further near-term pressure on ICE canola futures.

This is a global broad-based selloff now in-progress. It will spill into equities (IMO).

[helmsdale]

This is a global broad-based selloff now in-progress. It will spill into equities (IMO).

Honest to god, so long as there are two computers left to bid against one another, the developed world could be a radioactive wasteland and the damned market would still be setting new records.

[errolanderson]

Delayed re-opening of Chinese financial markets to next Monday, Feb 3 have Asian traders on-edge.

This market Lunar holiday re-start may be a serious test for global equities and commodities next week.

Expect docile VIX to potentially awaken . . . .

[jazz]

I dont understand how an event which could disrupt supply chains sends the product in that supply chain down? Harder to get raw commodities should raise their perceived value. Something is not right.

[errolanderson]

Group, my apologies for being so yappy right now, but much news flowing in that impacts us . . . .

Sunday nite will be key . . . China financial markets re-open. Talk that Yuan may be under heavy pressure. That will be bearish U.S. exports to China. Cotton, soybeans are in the gunsights. Long term soybean chart show a line at $8.40/bu, Chicago traders have brought that to our attention. Many traders will either just want to square up today, or get out of their long positions.

Copper down for 13 straight trading sessions . . . Crude oil has plunged 14% of-late . . . a broad-based selloff.

If you do own new crop canola put options, hug 'n hold. Taking a profit is tempting, but price protection is more important.

Nov Cdn GDP was slightly better than expected released this morning, but fallout in commodities will remain a drag on our loonie (IMO). Key support is 75 cents U.S.

This situation will be a drag on western Cdn cash prices. Barley holding firm. Green peas showing cracks.

If you do have price protection . . . hold it. Markets and emotions still remain too unstable.

[bucket]

Can you answer why inputs are not being dragged down....

Fuel at the pumps hasn't moved. ...it's a commodity like grain...

Fertilizer is going up....

[errolanderson]

Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here.

[bucket]

Good ..... chinese glyphosate should be going down in value since it doesn't cost as much to get it here....

Hahaha....funny how entire chinese cities are shut down with little vehicle traffic and the price of gas can stay up....along with little ocean freight according to Errol.....wondering why fuel inputs are not coming down as fast as grains?????

[ajl]

Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here.

ALL of the money that the folks who sold first got is headed to US markets pushing them even higher. What is also interesting is that no one is talking about the US federal deficit these days. When the dust settles the US is likely to have smaller deficits as tariff revenue comes in to service the deficit and then US markets will go higher and higher thus generating more revenue for the treasury. Game, set and match: USA.