Baltic Dry Index (Ocean Freight)

[jazz]

I dont understand how an event which could disrupt supply chains sends the product in that supply chain down? Harder to get raw commodities should raise their perceived value. Something is not right.

[errolanderson]

Group, my apologies for being so yappy right now, but much news flowing in that impacts us . . . .

Sunday nite will be key . . . China financial markets re-open. Talk that Yuan may be under heavy pressure. That will be bearish U.S. exports to China. Cotton, soybeans are in the gunsights. Long term soybean chart show a line at $8.40/bu, Chicago traders have brought that to our attention. Many traders will either just want to square up today, or get out of their long positions.

Copper down for 13 straight trading sessions . . . Crude oil has plunged 14% of-late . . . a broad-based selloff.

If you do own new crop canola put options, hug 'n hold. Taking a profit is tempting, but price protection is more important.

Nov Cdn GDP was slightly better than expected released this morning, but fallout in commodities will remain a drag on our loonie (IMO). Key support is 75 cents U.S.

This situation will be a drag on western Cdn cash prices. Barley holding firm. Green peas showing cracks.

If you do have price protection . . . hold it. Markets and emotions still remain too unstable.

[bucket]

Can you answer why inputs are not being dragged down....

Fuel at the pumps hasn't moved. ...it's a commodity like grain...

Fertilizer is going up....

[errolanderson]

Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here.

[bucket]

Good ..... chinese glyphosate should be going down in value since it doesn't cost as much to get it here....

Hahaha....funny how entire chinese cities are shut down with little vehicle traffic and the price of gas can stay up....along with little ocean freight according to Errol.....wondering why fuel inputs are not coming down as fast as grains?????

[ajl]

Ocean container freight rates remain in freefall . . . .

Baltic Dry index now around 450 points, this compares with 2,500 points last Sept. Collapsing global commodity values and lack of shipping demand have ships dry-docked looking for any business to maintain shipping routes. Ocean freight losses accelerating.

China stock indexes locked limit down (8.7%) despite government banning short selling and injecting billions in overnight stimulus. When the game doesn't go your way, you just change the rules . . . .

Meanwhile . . . back at the ranch . . . the Dow is up more than 300 points today. There is apparently nothing to see here.

ALL of the money that the folks who sold first got is headed to US markets pushing them even higher. What is also interesting is that no one is talking about the US federal deficit these days. When the dust settles the US is likely to have smaller deficits as tariff revenue comes in to service the deficit and then US markets will go higher and higher thus generating more revenue for the treasury. Game, set and match: USA.

[malleefarmer]

They have to sell the goods for that forementioned Tarif revenue to come in, that’s the sticky bit

[errolanderson]

Ocean freight rates for dry bulk products like iron ore now in total collapse. Rates have now plunged more than 90 percent since September.

Global export commodities coming under heavy price pressure. One would think; this has got to shake-up the irrational, excessively overvalued, manipulated stock market. Central banks pulling all-the-strings here.

P.S. The Bank of Canada is apparently hawkish, thrilled over excellent Cdn jobs data released this morning despite Alberta losing an incredible 18,900 jobs in January.

What a mess . . . .

[macdon02]

Ocean freight rates for dry bulk products like iron ore now in total collapse. Rates have now plunged more than 90 percent since September.

Global export commodities coming under heavy price pressure. One would think; this has got to shake-up the irrational, excessively overvalued, manipulated stock market. Central banks pulling all-the-strings here.

P.S. The Bank of Canada is apparently hawkish, thrilled over excellent Cdn jobs data released this morning despite Alberta losing an incredible 18,900 jobs in January.

What a mess . . . .

If BOC wants to continue a program in favor of eastern Canada, I say giver. A Liberal govt in a minority position.... seems BOC has been overly hawkish as of late? WHY? The obvious answer is they are trying to keep currency up. Who benefits? The importers, also two relatively small areas of the country that are vote rich and very attractive to foreign investment. Toronto and Vancouver. What happens if the loonie falls? Well the exporters get a bump, that's everyone that's reading this and if you aren't on the receiving end, well GFY. The other side effect of a falling loonie is foreign investment starts taking a loss relative to USD and most likely the home currency that the investor comes from. Vancouver has already recognized this is an issue and decided to take a little on homes. What's the next downside target? .63 roughly but depending on what USD does in this flight to safety environment along with the price of oil, the .63 level is a starting point. Im guessing the minority govt is extremely sensitive about the home values in the areas they currently hold, so they are in favor of holding rates or raising, anything but inflicting pain to the fringe that's keeping them in power. I think im close on the reason why. Would the BDI have any influence on former Prime Ministers that own boats?

[Kraut]

They have to sell the goods for that forementioned Tarif revenue to come in, that’s the sticky bit

Importing companies pay the tariff, US Consumer has to buy the goods for the US to make the tariff revenue. You have it backwards