As if you didn’t already know

[malleefarmer]

THE WORLD total grains harvest in 2019/20 is expected to be the second largest ever, at 2170 million tonnes (Mt), 1 per cent greater than the previous year, with bigger wheat and barley crops offsetting a reduced maize outturn, according to the International Grains Council (IGC) January 2020 market report.

The maize production forecast nonetheless was lifted 8Mt in the January report compared with the previous November 2019 forecast, with US and China maize-production figures were lifted by 3Mt and 5Mt respectively.


Grains consumption is expected to climb by 1pc to a new peak, including advances for food, feed and industrial purposes.

As the rise in demand outstrips the gain in supply, global stocks are seen contracting for the third consecutive year to a four-season low of 599Mt.

The year-on-year drawdown is entirely for maize, while rebuilding of inventories is envisaged for wheat and barley.

At 377Mt, total trade in grains is seen at 4pc higher than last year, and at a fresh high, including the eleventh successive expansion of maize shipments.


The trade projection this month was also boosted by 2Mt, mostly linked to larger-than-predicted wheat imports by Iran and Turkey.

Changes to grains use only absorb part of the supply gain, and the January forecast for global stocks has been lifted by 5Mt to 599Mt.

Stock in 2018/19 was 624Mt.

Led by strong gains in wheat, maize and rice export prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) reached its highest since October 2018, up by 4pc compared with the November report, and 2pc year-on-year.

The IGC GOI wheat sub-index rose by 9pc to an 11-month peak, lifted by solid export demand, confirmation of a small Australian crop and concerns about less-than-ideal conditions for 2020/21 crops in parts of the EU and the Black Sea region.

[malleefarmer]

SAUDI ARABIA will import about 900,000 tonnes of barley in last-half March and April through its first feed barley tender for the year.

Awarded on Monday, it sets an average price of US$224.45 per tonne c and f, around 4 per cent higher than the previous tender conducted late 2019.


The tender includes 11 cargoes totalling 660,000t to be discharged at Red Sea ports, and four cargoes totalling 240,000t bound for the port of Dammam in the Arabian Gulf.

Saudi Arabia Grains Organization (SAGO) said of the 19 of the 25 companies invited to bid in the tender, nine were selected.

SAGO said the completion of the first tender of imported barley for this year comes within the framework of meeting local demand and maintaining strategic reserves.

The organisation’s total purchases for 2019 reached 5.3 million tonnes.


Companies successful at the tender were Agrorodeo, Cargill, Casillo, Cerealcom, Holbud, LLC Tradehouse, Lecureur, Louis Dreyfus and Soufflet.

Two suppliers will supply eight cargoes between them, and seven companies won one cargo each.

Suppliers can ship from optional origins including include Australia, the Black Sea region, the EU, South America and the US, but excluding Canada.

[malleefarmer]

As buyers scramble for last of farmer held stocks on hand domestically prices insane.

My local feed mills 35 kms away maybe 40 hit $370 delivered so a on fam price of 357/58 doesn’t matter how good o bad the wheat just has to be ove 9.5% potion

Once Gower stocks exhausted they then have to buy from trade out of elevators at a even high price

[malleefarmer]

Madness 374 delivered today

[Guest]

$202 here

[malleefarmer]

Ongoing strikes in France over pension reform are disrupting the country’s rail services and port activities, and have the potential to severely impact the grains sector if a quick resolution is not found to the dispute that has now been running for almost eight weeks.
Like so many countries in the developed world, France is wrestling with how to fund its relatively generous pension schemes amidst falling birth rates and an ageing workforce. The country’s hard-left trade unions are trying to force President Emmanuel Macron to abandon the biggest overhaul to the French pension system since World War II.
France has 42 different pension schemes, each with varying levels of contributions and benefits, and Macron wants to streamline them into a single system that gives every pensioner the same rights for each euro contributed.
At just under 14% of economic output, French spending on public pensions is among the highest in the world, a vital component of an expensive but treasured welfare state. The government says the new system would reduce billions in future deficits in pension funds.
The public transport strike that has stymied rail freight services and a series of rolling stoppages by stevedores have left merchants struggling to get wheat and barley to port for export and to domestic consumers across the country.
According to the French grain organisation Intercereales, the situation is now getting quite drastic. There are more than 450,000 metric tonnes of grain, worth around 100 million euros (AU$166 million), blocked in French ports, unable to be loaded onto export vessels that are lined up at anchorage off the French coast.
The strikes are paralysing this season’s grain marketing campaign in the European Union’s biggest grain producer. The big concern now is that merchants will be forced into loading optional origin sales via alternate export pathways out of competing countries to meet their contractual obligations.
Additionally, buyers are reported to be switching purchases to other exporting regions such as northern Europe, Baltic countries, the Black Sea, the United States or Canada to avoid the possibility of getting squeezed on delivery due to inadequate logistics. This was evident in the latest Egyptian tender, where there was only one French offer, and all the business went to Black Sea exporters.
France harvested 39.5 million metric tonne (MT) of soft wheat this season (July 2019 to June 2020) it’s second-largest crop on record, and up 16 per cent on the drought reduced 2018/19 crop. Before the strikes, current season exports outside of the European Union were estimated to reach more than 12MT, a four year high and up 14 per cent on 2018/19.
The grain industry in France is extremely reliant on rail freight to execute the massive grain transport task from interior storages and railheads to ports around the country each season. It is estimated that road freight costs an additional 4 and 6 euros per tonne depending on the distance to port, effectively reducing France’s competitiveness in the global marketplace.
That said, French 11.5 per cent protein wheat is quoted at US$224 Free on Board (FOB) for a February loader, maintaining its discount to Black Sea values which closed last week quoted at US$229 FOB.
German and Baltic export premiums have been strengthening against French wheat values as domestic merchants and exporters look for alternate European Union supplies in the wake of the French crisis. They closed the week quoted at around US$228 and US$227 respectively for 12.5 per cent protein wheat. If you call the 11.5 per cent protein discount $3, they remain quite competitive and provide a cheap means of avoiding the French system.
All this comes at a time when French exporters were hoping to rebuild their export clientele after a poor production year in 2018/19 reduced the exportable surplus, forcing traditional wheat customers to other origins. France had a rare shipment of wheat to China at the beginning of the season, and traders are hopeful French wheat will regain market share in West Africa and catch extra demand from Morocco, which had a poor harvest.
On the barley front, France harvested a record 13.6MMT off 1.9 million hectares in the current season. This was up 2.5MMT or 22 per cent compared to 2018/19 and restores quite a healthy exportable surplus.
In terms of quoted export values, French barley remains extremely competitive. It closed last week at around US$191 FOB compared to Black Sea replacement at around $192 FOB and German at around US$195 FOB.
The latest Saudi tender results will be out early this week, and at those values, it is hard to see exporters shorting French execution with the current industrial turmoil. German barley is more expensive and has a freight disadvantage, so it is highly likely the business will go to Black Sea nations unless the Argentinians decide to pop their head in for a look.
Major reform is always difficult in politics, especially when it potentially affects the majority of the country’s constituents. The unions in France hold a lot of power and finding a resolution could be drawn out.
We also know how militant the French farmers can be when they are riled. It will be fascinating to see what action they take and what influence It has when the strikes start to materially affect their farm income and profitability.

[furrowtickler]

Lots of good info , thx Mallee 👍

[beaverdam]

malleefarmer @ 12:20 "Companies successful at the tender were Agrorodeo, Cargill, Casillo, Cerealcom, Holbud, LLC Tradehouse, Lecureur, Louis Dreyfus and Soufflet.

Two suppliers will supply eight cargoes between them, and seven companies won one cargo each.

Suppliers can ship from optional origins including include Australia, the Black Sea region, the EU, South America and the US, but excluding Canada."


why we're allowing any oil from those phuckers into this country is beyond me.

thanks for the post mallee