The death of oilseeds

[macdon02]

Thought crossed your mind? Is livestock and a major stake in cereal production now more feasible then paying the man per seed? Is the industry trying to close off this alternative? There's no seed tax if you wrap it up. Im not that old relatively speaking but I'm not totally ruling out the way of the previous generation. It's more work but if getting on a plane is gonna give me the Kung Flu, I'll stay at home and raise beef or pork, I saw the late 90s and we aint seen nothing yet im guessing. The entire oilseed program is based on China and exports. I think we've had a good run and now we are reverting back to the previous cycle. Anyone else thinking the same? 25 by 25 was an erroneous idea by pencil pushers that are completely disconnected from reality. Half the fert, seed and chem,
walk the product off. It isn't fool proof but I don't think it's wrong either.


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048314/china-coronavirus-world-health-organisation-declares-outbreak

[ajl]

I think canola is here to stay but we have seen the peak which is likely a good thing. Rotations will get extended because they have to and that will deal with club root problem. Exports to China will never be at the level they were a few years ago and we will have to adapt to that. Livestock enterprises to some extent will grow but that will be limited by finding buyers that can afford the meat as it is not a cheap foodstuff. So agriculture is going to undergo a fairly major shift in the next few years and producer will have to be flexible. A major decrease in land prices will see some summer fallow reappear on the prairies.

[macdon02]

Thank you AJ. There's no wrong opinion in my eyes, in fact, I want mine ripped apart. So bring it, as I want to be proved wrong. I want critical thought not ideology. All views are welcome. Not saying you are motivated by ideals. Want to hear it all. I want to see the majority.

[beaverdam]

This is why the Chinese don't need our canola any longer. Gutter Oil

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrv78nG9R04 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrv78nG9R04

2:38 minutes long

[Marusko]

Canola won't die. There are other markets. What about other Asian countries. What does CETA do for canola. Can we get higher protein varieties to sell for plant based protein.

Canada consumes more canola domestically than it exports, so there's a base level of demand that doesn't depend on international relations.

On the other hand, agreed that the land could use a break from canola to slow down clubroot. Why not grow domestic only, maybe some exporting, to force everyone to have proper rotations. Mandate three or four year rotations, because some guys are too stubborn or ignorant to implement it themselves.

I don't miss the work and commitment of cattle but they provide crop diversification with hay and silage into the rotation. They supplement small-medium grain farms well, you can keep your poor land in pasture, hay the sloughs, feed your poor crops to your own animals, have manure for problem areas.

You can even play with grazing cover crops in problem fields... As a grain guy only, a cover crop is a loss for me, but I see a benefit. just gotta feed it to something to make it pay. Land is too expensive for cattle though, unless you already own it.

[GDR]

I think there is reason to worry about canola, you just cant have one market for a product and hope for the best. Canola oil is a premium product in other countries not a necessity. The ASF will take years to recover the use for the meal. And well politics aren't helping these days also. Problem being is most of us are limited in crop rotation choices because of our climate and lots will still grow canola at lower prices than the market signals. I do think livestock is part of the solution on an individual basis but as a whole we can't double the cows or hog numbers as markets would drop below profitability. Livestock in Canada brings high costs of production comparative to warmer climates.

What should be the focus of our farm groups and governments should be to look for additional ag production options. Biofuels/fibre/building materials/natural health products. And who knows what else.

Was thinking today that things are pretty good right now in farming but it's pretty easy to point out lots of possible outcomes that could change that in a hurry. Risk vs reward might be about as high as it's ever been right now.

[Sheepwheat]

Can’t do livestock, it cramps guys style.

[furrowtickler]

Still kinda baffled as to why bio diesel not being promoted more by our canola groups that we pay millions of check off dollars to ???

[Guest]

because they are travelling the globe going to meetings in warm places
no time for that shit

[farming101]

Canada consumes more canola domestically than it exports, so there's a base level of demand that doesn't depend on international relations.

Not quite sure that paints a clear picture. Canadian industry does go through a lot canola but the oil and meal are then exported. Only a portion of the oil and meal(under 20%) remains in Canada for further processing or consumption

[tmyrfield]

Still kinda baffled as to why bio diesel not being promoted more by our canola groups that we pay millions of check off dollars to ???

all canola exports to the EU are for biodiesel approx. 1MMt for this year

[FarmJunkie]

Because it would make sense Furrow. We don’t seem to have any leaders that have any foresight that can help our economy for years to come just short term for their own benefit. My Dad has made Biodiesel for many years out of Canola oil. We only use it in the summer but it cuts some of our fuel bill every year. If a smaller farm can do it there is no reason a huge plant can’t be built in Sask as another option for our Canola.

[macdon02]

Because it would make sense Furrow. We don’t seem to have any leaders that have any foresight that can help our economy for years to come just short term for their own benefit. My Dad has made Biodiesel for many years out of Canola oil. We only use it in the summer but it cuts some of our fuel bill every year. If a smaller farm can do it there is no reason a huge plant can’t be built in Sask as another option for our Canola.

Is it gelling in winter? Looked into this back around '04 when everything froze. Think the name of the outfit was Biofuel Canada or something in Calgary, basically they rented a bay and were trying to peddle the setup from there. Think they closed up shop but have been thinking about it again, mostly to take the farm off the grid.

[GDR]

Because it would make sense Furrow. We don’t seem to have any leaders that have any foresight that can help our economy for years to come just short term for their own benefit. My Dad has made Biodiesel for many years out of Canola oil. We only use it in the summer but it cuts some of our fuel bill every year. If a smaller farm can do it there is no reason a huge plant can’t be built in Sask as another option for our Canola.

Good for you guys, I'd love to try but have been brainwashed long enough about quality fuel and additives etc and just don't want to risk wrecking an engine. Not saying it would just that it's a fear, price on some of these newer engines is astronomical.

[Hamloc]

I had a quick look at old emails from one grain company and the difference in their March canola price. Jan. 14 it was $10.47, today it was $9.76, oouucch!

As for Macdon2's original question about livestock and cereals vs canola. I still have cows and the only reason is rocky land and a bit of diversification. The latest price drop is again connected to China. Certainly unfortunate that the profitability of canola alway's comes back to China, precarious future no doubt.