Dont Call It Global Warming

[jazz]

You could put as many digits to the right of the decimal as you like. That doesn't change the fact that there are conventions and rules in science and math, to ensure that the answer doesn't indicate more ( or less) precision than the original data justifies. In this case, the two digits to the left of the decimal are justified. The rest just indicate that this site has nothing to do with science, and everything to do with causing an emotional response in low information readers. And it only gets worse from there if you keep reading the website. Apparently we are headed for a food crisis in 29 years and counting. The rest is not even worth the time to discredit.

The illusion of precision and accuracy to the uneducated meant to instill fear and panic when the real models have single digit errors in the near term and probably double digit in the longer term.

I got to hand it to the UN, they picked the perfect scam in all of history and sold it to the drooling masses.

The world is ending and only communism can save it, so give all your rights and freedoms over so they can save you from frying.

[furrowtickler]

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics....

The article referred to by CC has a chart showing that in 2002 there were at least 120 frost free days.
Well we had 99 frost free days here in 2002. Saskatoon area. Lesson is have your farm close to Circle Drive. Less frost there.
2004: Chart says over 130 frost free days. Our wheat was all feed. Went anywhere from 17-35. Flax, entire crop snowed under. Canola 13-24. Some burnt in the spring. 122 frost free days.
Shrug.....Poor farmers I guess

Agree , this WP article is garbage in garbage out.
Longer growing season ??? How many millions on acres not harvested from north of Peace River all the way down into the Mid west States?
Second year in a row early frosts have caused significant damage to a big area in Western Canada .
How many billions of dollars of quality downgrades this year in Western Canada due to early frosts and crops that never matured due to lack of heat units ??? It’s a huge number barely even talked about . But the notion of longer growing seasons due to global warming keeps making headlines .... even in political rags like the WP .
The past two harvests , out in the real world tell a dramatically different story and it’s undeniable.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Agree , this WP article is garbage in garbage out.
Longer growing season ??? How many millions on acres not harvested from north of Peace River all the way down into the Mid west States?
Second year in a row early frosts have caused significant damage to a big area in Western Canada .
How many billions of dollars of quality downgrades this year in Western Canada due to early frosts and crops that never matured due to lack of heat units ??? It’s a huge number barely even talked about . But the notion of longer growing seasons due to global warming keeps making headlines .... even in political rags like the WP .
The past two harvests , out in the real world tell a dramatically different story and it’s undeniable.

And according to Tweety's logic, since one days temperature and one station on Antarctica is enough information to predict the next 30 years of climate for the world, your 2 years of nasty falls ( 5 years in a row here), across all of Western Canada, and many parts of the US, is such a harnbinger of doom that we might as well just give up on farming altogether.

[jazz]

These guys used NOAAs and NASAs own data and methodolgy and found that for the past 5 years, the earth has been cooling rapidly. That sure would explain the harvests.

[furrowtickler]

And according to Tweety's logic, since one days temperature and one station on Antarctica is enough information to predict the next 30 years of climate for the world, your 2 years of nasty falls ( 5 years in a row here), across all of Western Canada, and many parts of the US, is such a harnbinger of doom that we might as well just give up on farming altogether.

One just has to ignore this B/S propaganda and look at reality , during low sunspot activity early varieties and cool season crops need more focus . Also not loading up on high fertility rates that prolong maturity in Typical shorter growing season areas. But each to their own.
“If” what they claim in longer seasons was true and we could all grow longer season crops , well there would not be frosts in August , snow in September across a huge area of the northern grain growing areas of North America with even cool season crops not maturing . It’s all due to low sun spot activity, the opposite of what is being preached.
Soybean yields In Sask peaked around 2015 and have declined significantly since then ... 2014-16 was about the last solar maximum and good growing seasons with mature crops and good harvests ... in most areas.
Crop production plummeted in Europe during the Mauder minimum.... food for thought .
I will bet on historical data , not on future projections by the climatology cult with an agenda .

[farming101]

More data to interpret:


The SRC weather station is in a field in the city. Just saying. To clarify, I am not denying the frost free season is getting longer compared to the 60's 70's and 80's. A question that could be asked is: If it never gets warm, sunny and dry, rains all the time and yet never freezes can you grow a good crop? Countless other scenarios too. There is a lot more to it than frost free days.

[furrowtickler]

On the other side of crop yields , earlier cooler season crop yields such as oats and barely have done very well the past two years where they have matured without the frosts . Some huge yields the past few years. Even canola where fall frosts and lack of rain were not an issue has had big yields.
Peas , well that strictly depends on levels of root rots in areas. Locally pea yields have struggled a lot even on fields without much visible root rot, but high yielding peas need June early July rains and that has been nearly non existent here .
So it’s not all bad , just that in many areas the past few years the “growing season” has been more like the 60’s and 70’s , opposite to what is being told . It’s just that many areas never used to grow 100 day plus canola , soft wheats and other longer maturity crops .... then add double the fertility and a solar minimum........ millions of acres left unharvested.
The graphs in the WP article do show a trend ... but they go to about 2017 .... just sayin .

[tweety]

And according to Tweety's logic, since one days temperature and one station on Antarctica is enough information to predict the next 30 years of climate for the world, your 2 years of nasty falls ( 5 years in a row here), across all of Western Canada, and many parts of the US, is such a harnbinger of doom that we might as well just give up on farming altogether.

Your logic, not mine. One days temp is one day. 30 years is 30 years of temps. But if you break records on one side consistently its an indicator of trend.

No one said anything about predicting the next 30 years from one temperature. JFC, this isn't complicated.

[TASFarms]

Anyone know when the sunspots are to start popping up?

[furrowtickler]

Approximately 5 years to the next “max”
Activity should begin to pick up ... hopefully. These cool short growing seasons make tough harvests .
ABF5 ... my guess your last decent harvests / growing seasons were 2014 -15 ish ?
If you look at the solar cycle graphs you can pick out the late 80’s drought and the early 2000’s droughts for many areas. Fringe areas like far western Alberta and NE Sask had relative good years by being not too wet ? Just going by memory, could be wrong . Far NE sask was decent this year though because they missed the majority of fall rain / snow .


I know starting about 2005 through 2017 this area had relatively stable years and very limited frosts with long harvests for the most part despite the low sun spot activity around 2008 ish , we had more spring frosts than normal 2007 - 2009.
The solar cycle just one piece to a very complex system so trends not always exact but it is interesting after the past few years . The current reality of immature crops , wet cold harvests and early frost damage in areas does not fit the narrative at all of longer growing seasons and the ability to grow “long season” crops . Some areas just north of here were not even 75 days frost free this past year.
4-5 years ago kinda fits the WP article but not the past few years. Maybe again in 4-5 years.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Approximately 5 years to the next “max”
Activity should begin to pick up ... hopefully. These cool short growing seasons make tough harvests .
ABF5 ... my guess your last decent harvests / growing seasons were 2014 -15 ish ?
If you look at the solar cycle graphs you can pick out the late 80’s drought and the early 2000’s droughts for many areas. Fringe areas like far western Alberta and NE Sask had relative good years by being not too wet ? Just going by memory, could be wrong . Far NE sask was decent this year though because they missed the majority of fall rain / snow .


I know starting about 2005 through 2017 this area had relatively stable years and very limited frosts with long harvests for the most part despite the low sun spot activity around 2008 ish , we had more spring frosts than normal 2007 - 2009.
The solar cycle just one piece to a very complex system so trends not always exact but it is interesting after the past few years . The current reality of immature crops , wet cold harvests and early frost damage in areas does not fit the narrative at all of longer growing seasons and the ability to grow “long season” crops . Some areas just north of here were not even 75 days frost free this past year.
4-5 years ago kinda fits the WP article but not the past few years. Maybe again in 4-5 years.

2014 would be the last year when we didn't harvest with snow on the ground, and dried grain naturally.

As for defining any of our growing seasons or harvests as decent, that is a very generous term I would never use, some are just less worse than others...

[tweety]

The best thing that can happen to agriculture in NA is what is happening right now. Warmer, wetter, and more C02. Trouble is the problem is too much production already - so maybe from an economic standpoint, its the worst thing.