Markets fallout

[malleefarmer]

Beef mostly but rest will follow perhaps wool lamb etc oh grain as well

Interesting article sure you guys are up with it

https://www.beefcentral.com/trade/china-fallout-continues-for-beef-in-wake-of-coronavirus-outbreak/#.XjfrirF1e-U.twitter https://www.beefcentral.com/trade/china-fallout-continues-for-beef-in-wake-of-coronavirus-outbreak/#.XjfrirF1e-U.twitter

[malleefarmer]

While on markets a guy with keen interest asked me and roughly quote “what’s gonna happen when all the beans and corn and wheat in USA finally hit the market”

I said well its all factored in he said is it ain’t sold yet, so if it comes on market at same time as 2020 new crop prices will collapse even further.

That logic ain’t quite right is it Errol or tech or macdon or anyone but he got me thinking

[errolanderson]

mallee, ‘force majeure’ is a major concern for exporters and cash commodity prices globally. The fallout could be intense until the market has seen the peak of infections. This will be some sort of a bell curve.

This could have a domino impact globally on all products. China represents 1/2 of all global demand for commodities.

Basis levels widen under these circumstances.

[jazz]

China just signed that ph1 deal with trump to buy $200b of us goods, $50b from ag. And the tariffs are still on for at least 6 months until they follow through.

How will they meet that commitment? Their economy is definitely going to slow now. Wonder if trump will give them a break.

I expect big central bank stimulus and 50 basis point cut in rates by spring. Especially in Canada. Our recession is assured.

[TOM4CWB]

China just signed that ph1 deal with trump to buy $200b of us goods, $50b from ag. And the tariffs are still on for at least 6 months until they follow through.

How will they meet that commitment? Their economy is definitely going to slow now. Wonder if trump will give them a break.

I expect big central bank stimulus and 50 basis point cut in rates by spring. Especially in Canada. Our recession is assured.

Add this to the mix:
On Great Britain / EU Trade...
""The choice is emphatically not 'deal or no deal'. The question is whether we agree a trading relationship with the EU comparable to Canada's - or more like Australia's.
"In either case, I have no doubt that Britain will prosper mightily."
Why does a UK-EU trade deal matter?
Britain 'will not be aligning with EU rules' - Raab
He rejected the requirement for the UK to adopt Brussels-made rules "on competition policy, subsidies, social protection, the environment, or anything similar, any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules".
The PM added that he will seek "a pragmatic agreement on security, protecting our citizens without trespassing on the autonomy of our respective legal systems".
When asked by the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg whether he accepted that leaving the EU with no comprehensive trade deal could have significant cost for jobs and businesses, Mr Johnson replied: "We've got a deal, it's a great deal, we're out."
"When I hear prophecies of doom I've heard them before, I don't believe in them," he added.
On the absence of the word "Brexit" in his speech, Mr Johnson said it was not a banned words but that "it's over, it's happened..
.Trade talks between Britain and the EU are due to begin in March and the bloc's own approach to the negotiations needs to be agreed by all 27 member states.
While the UK officially left the EU at 23:00 GMT on Friday, it will remain wedded to EU rules during a transition period which ends in December this year - the PM has said it will not be extended.
".

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51351914

Some of our grain elevators... are over a month behind in contract deliveries... Bad weather... trains delayed...

[jazz]

.

[errolanderson]

China just signed that ph1 deal with trump to buy $200b of us goods, $50b from ag. And the tariffs are still on for at least 6 months until they follow through.

How will they meet that commitment? Their economy is definitely going to slow now. Wonder if trump will give them a break.

I expect big central bank stimulus and 50 basis point cut in rates by spring. Especially in Canada. Our recession is assured.

Soybeans began to drop during the actual signing of the Phase One deal have have never looked back yet. Translated statement from Xi to Trump during signing was; China will purchase U.S. ag product needed as market conditions dictate.

[bucket]

The math says Canada would have to have 350 cases of infection of coronavirus to be the equivalent proportion of cases in China currently...

In the USA it would be 3500 cases...

Food for thought....I think they are blowing things out of proportion...

Sure wish some people could think past their nose after comparing it to other infections on a daily basis....

[blueversi]

The math says Canada would have to have 350 cases of infection of coronavirus to be the equivalent proportion of cases in China currently...

In the USA it would be 3500 cases...

Food for thought....I think they are blowing things out of proportion...

Sure wish some people could think past their nose after comparing it to other infections on a daily basis....

Climate cult infection has spread faster and will have greater negative effects.

[TechAnalyst]

While on markets a guy with keen interest asked me and roughly quote “what’s gonna happen when all the beans and corn and wheat in USA finally hit the market”

I said well its all factored in he said is it ain’t sold yet, so if it comes on market at same time as 2020 new crop prices will collapse even further.

That logic ain’t quite right is it Errol or tech or macdon or anyone but he got me thinking

You are correct Mallee, there isn't a burdensome amount of supply waiting to hit the market. In fact, supplies are lower than last year, significantly so for soybeans, yet prices are similar to lower in soybeans case. Should China try to fulfill their purchase commitments, prices should firm from here.

According to the last USDA report, the 19/20 ending stocks for corn are predicted to be 1.892 bil bu vs 2.221 last year. The March corn futures are $3.82 this morning vs $3.78 this time last year.

The 19/20 wheat ending stocks are forecast to be 965 mil bu vs 1,080 last year. March Chicago wheat is $5.62/bu vs $5.24 last year. March Minneapolis is $5.39 vs $5.75/bu. And Kansas is just as ugly, $4.73/bu this morning vs $5.09 this time last year.

Soybeans are the most undervalued looking at it this way. Ending stocks for 19/20 are projected to be 475 mil bu vs 909 mil bu last year. Yet the March futures this morning are $8.84 compared to $9.18 this time last year.

So from a purely fundamental supply point of view, prices should actually firm from here.

Hope that helps...

[helmsdale]

Headlines this morning...

"Oil prices rise on investor Hope's of OPEC+ cuts."

"Stocks gain as chinese stimulus calms investors virus fears."

So Dow 30,000 is back on?

[errolanderson]

Central banks now panicking flooding equities with so-called liquidity stimulus aka: money printing. This is desperation time to avoid a potential stock market crash and economics at their bazarrest.

Commodities definitely not feeling the love with washout in-progress. Talk that China growth may stall toward 2 percent. Volatility could become extreme (IMO).

[jazz]

Commodities definitely not feeling the love with washout in-progress. Talk that China growth may stall toward 2 percent. Volatility could become extreme (IMO).

The test of the Chinese economy and system is whether it can survive a real recession. With their debt borrowing at sky high levels, they will have to implement some creative stimulus to keep it all going. If they devalue the yuan, US will label them a currency manipulator again and tariffs back on.

I suspect US and EU central banks will engineer a back door bailout but they will extract some major concessions from that economy to prop it up.

[Kraut]

Disease and infection related deaths in Africa in 2016. Deaths, not infections. Market isn't overeacting, market only reacts to where there is $ to be harvested or deployed. The media and what they focus on however........

Group I causes of death in Africa 2016
Cause of death Number of deaths Share of total deaths
Lower respiratory tract infections 916,851 10.4%
HIV/Aids 718,800 8.1%
Diarrhoeal diseases 652,791 7.4%
Malaria 408,125 4.6%
Tuberculosis 405,496 4.6%

Sold 95% of my Far East holdings around Xmas and watching for reentry point in 2 - 4 weeks depending what unfolds

[Flatlander]

Disease and infection related deaths in Africa in 2016. Deaths, not infections. Market isn't overeacting, market only reacts to where there is $ to be harvested or deployed. The media and what they focus on however........

Group I causes of death in Africa 2016
Cause of death Number of deaths Share of total deaths
Lower respiratory tract infections 916,851 10.4%
HIV/Aids 718,800 8.1%
Diarrhoeal diseases 652,791 7.4%
Malaria 408,125 4.6%
Tuberculosis 405,496 4.6%

Sold 95% of my Far East holdings around Xmas and watching for reentry point in 2 - 4 weeks depending what unfolds

Bosch, looks like a timely move selling when you did. You will need to show the guts of the Hun to buy back while the four horseman of plagues ride down the Silk Road