Markets fallout

[helmsdale]

Headlines this morning...

"Oil prices rise on investor Hope's of OPEC+ cuts."

"Stocks gain as chinese stimulus calms investors virus fears."

So Dow 30,000 is back on?

[errolanderson]

Central banks now panicking flooding equities with so-called liquidity stimulus aka: money printing. This is desperation time to avoid a potential stock market crash and economics at their bazarrest.

Commodities definitely not feeling the love with washout in-progress. Talk that China growth may stall toward 2 percent. Volatility could become extreme (IMO).

[jazz]

Commodities definitely not feeling the love with washout in-progress. Talk that China growth may stall toward 2 percent. Volatility could become extreme (IMO).

The test of the Chinese economy and system is whether it can survive a real recession. With their debt borrowing at sky high levels, they will have to implement some creative stimulus to keep it all going. If they devalue the yuan, US will label them a currency manipulator again and tariffs back on.

I suspect US and EU central banks will engineer a back door bailout but they will extract some major concessions from that economy to prop it up.

[Kraut]

Disease and infection related deaths in Africa in 2016. Deaths, not infections. Market isn't overeacting, market only reacts to where there is $ to be harvested or deployed. The media and what they focus on however........

Group I causes of death in Africa 2016
Cause of death Number of deaths Share of total deaths
Lower respiratory tract infections 916,851 10.4%
HIV/Aids 718,800 8.1%
Diarrhoeal diseases 652,791 7.4%
Malaria 408,125 4.6%
Tuberculosis 405,496 4.6%

Sold 95% of my Far East holdings around Xmas and watching for reentry point in 2 - 4 weeks depending what unfolds

[Flatlander]

Disease and infection related deaths in Africa in 2016. Deaths, not infections. Market isn't overeacting, market only reacts to where there is $ to be harvested or deployed. The media and what they focus on however........

Group I causes of death in Africa 2016
Cause of death Number of deaths Share of total deaths
Lower respiratory tract infections 916,851 10.4%
HIV/Aids 718,800 8.1%
Diarrhoeal diseases 652,791 7.4%
Malaria 408,125 4.6%
Tuberculosis 405,496 4.6%

Sold 95% of my Far East holdings around Xmas and watching for reentry point in 2 - 4 weeks depending what unfolds

Bosch, looks like a timely move selling when you did. You will need to show the guts of the Hun to buy back while the four horseman of plagues ride down the Silk Road

[rumrocks]

There's two kinds of bull riders, both eventually end in pain.

[errolanderson]

The test of the Chinese economy and system is whether it can survive a real recession. With their debt borrowing at sky high levels, they will have to implement some creative stimulus to keep it all going. If they devalue the yuan, US will label them a currency manipulator again and tariffs back on.

I suspect US and EU central banks will engineer a back door bailout but they will extract some major concessions from that economy to prop it up.

Enodo Economics, a macro forecasting firm focused on China’s economy now suggests actual China growth in 4th quarter was only 3 percent. And China’s economy may be headed into a technical recession in the 1st half of 2020. This estimate is likely closer to the real truth (IMO). Coronavirus appears hitting China’s economy much harder than during SARS outbreak.

If this is close to the truth, it does paint a bleak picture for global commodities as China consumes 1/2 of all commodities. China apparently cutting tariffs overnight and propping up their stock market on liquidity. Commodities actually rebounding on this news. But how long can this hold?

[ajl]

Wow is all I can say. Who knew that the collapse of China would result in one of the biggest pumps of US markets ever. In addition, in order to control inflation at home, china is cutting tariffs on $75B of US imports. The fact that these tariffs existed in the first place makes is obvious to all but the terminally stupid that this was china's trade was all along. This market rally likely kicked the can of pension bankruptcies down the road a few more years in NA making the strong US economy even more real and will cut a few hundred billion off of the US federal deficit this fiscal year. 40000 Dow anyone?

[jazz]

Wow is all I can say. Who knew that the collapse of China would result in one of the biggest pumps of US markets ever. In addition, in order to control inflation at home, china is cutting tariffs on $75B of US imports. The fact that these tariffs existed in the first place makes is obvious to all but the terminally stupid that this was china's trade was all along. This market rally likely kicked the can of pension bankruptcies down the road a few more years in NA making the strong US economy even more real and will cut a few hundred billion off of the US federal deficit this fiscal year. 40000 Dow anyone?

US will be the dominant economy for the foreseeable future. This is the end of china. Supply chains are moving, some back to the US, lots to other Asian nations. China is forecast a 3m bbl a day drop in crude demands. This is more than just some airplanes not flying.

Some Chinese website accidently reported 24,000 deaths as the real number. Nobody knows.

[errolanderson]

US will be the dominant economy for the foreseeable future. This is the end of china. Supply chains are moving, some back to the US, lots to other Asian nations. China is forecast a 3m bbl a day drop in crude demands. This is more than just some airplanes not flying.

Some Chinese website accidently reported 24,000 deaths as the real number. Nobody knows.

This is certainly not the end of China . . .

China is taking a setback, but they are an emerging global powerhouse. Their supply chains are strengthening trade-wise globally. U.S. supply chains are, if any, weakening globally via protectionism. There's not much the U.S. can do about in the long run (IMO). Even India is now coming up the sidelines on technology and could surpass in the next generation.

Times are a changing . . . .