Wheat correction over for now?

[farming101]

For sure.
While I don't mind putting some price destinations out there based on chart patterns I don't think I could ever recommend what guys do with their actual stocks. Totally up to them.
Just kind of a heads up: this is happening today kind of thing

[TechAnalyst]

It is worth noting that the Chicago wheat futures went inverted on Friday and built on that today. For those not sure, what that means is the March futures are now a premium to the May futures (instead of the normal discount for the cost of carrying the inventory to May). That is a bullish sign as it shows the need for inventory sooner rather than later.

I thought it would be worth bringing this forward given the inversion still exists. The May is trading at a 7 cent premium to the July, indicating the need for inventory sooner rather than later.

In the big picture, a commercially driven rally is far more powerful than a spec rally. I suspect that will be the case here as well.

AF5, I'm not sure if that was directed at me as well but if so, I'm glad to help if I can. If I'm doing the analysis anyway, why not share.

[Oliver88]

How would you guys tackle selling wheat for June/July delivery?

Futures seem to be increasing. CDN $ fluctuating but heading down with oil. Grain companies adjusting basis and protein spreads randomly.

I plan to simply use a target for a fixed price but do get tempted to lock in basis than lock in futures later.

[TechAnalyst]

I'm not a huge fan of basis contracts unless they're exceptionally favourable. Especially with volatile futures markets and time constraints. You really are left with little for a plan B should the futures pull back and don't recover in time.

I do believe the saucer on the monthly Chicago wheat chart and the inversion in the futures both point to a rally into the summer. The Can$ should continue to struggle as long as energy and equity markets remain under pressure.

Given that, I would prefer to use target prices to reward a rally with a portions of the total sales to be made along the way. That reduces the stress, obtains a favourable average price as long as the rally unfolds, and leaves an endless amount of plan B options should something derail the rally.

Hope that helps.

[Oliver88]

Incremental targets for flat price do make sense for June/July as well as new crop.

[farming101]

Everything is possible and nothing is possible in this environment

ZWN20 could be 30% up by third week of May.

First though, the May contract still needs to rise above 5.77 and 5.87 to leave the downtrend behind

ZWK20 backing off from 5.77. High of 5.76 5/8 so far. Lots of energy though, could still break through or maybe tomorrow...
The inversion Tech mentioned is growing

Done, 5.87 next resistance...support at 555 1/4

[farming101]

Wow, the 5.87 May suit didn't fit too well. Back to the tailor's for alterations.....

[Oliver88]

Wheat prices bounced back a bit today, good enough to start selling new crop.

[Oliver88]

Will the CDN $/basis be the biggest factor in April?

[flea beetle]

Wouldn’t it be nice if futures AND basis went in our favour? A guy can dream can’t he?

[farming101]

Will the CDN $/basis be the biggest factor in April?

I don't think so. The weaker CAD has supported farmgate prices here but for April I don't think a big drop is likely. 69-71.4 for April. 1.40 - 1.45 if you like

First impressions anyway. Anything could happen now

[Oliver88]

CDN at .7058
Minneapolis futures down 1-2 cents