Wheat correction over for now?

[TechAnalyst]

Indicators on the daily wheat charts are suggesting the bull market correction inspired by concern over the coronavirus may be coming to an end.

In particular, the March Kansas Wheat futures (hard red winter) triggered a buy on the daily chart with an initial target of $5.32/bu then a secondary at $5.47. Minneapolis should follow suite with a goal of $5.90 then $6.04/bu US.

Given the Canadian dollar is looking like it is trying to break down through support at $.7500 US, the combined action should help our prairie bids.

We shall see…

[farming101]

I guess the chart indicators I use are a little different.
Here would be my stance at present: I don't have a position on in any of the wheat pits.

Chicago, failed buy signal. Neutral, no position
Kansas, no buy signal. Hold or in other words, no further shorts added right now, be ready to lighten up
Minneapolis, no buy signal, short, not adding to position at present.

The correction could very well be over and your buy signal may turn out to be profitable.
My trend follower style is usually late to the party

[TechAnalyst]

The next four weeks or so should tell the tale.

Maybe sooner if the signals fail...

[Oliver88]

Minneapolis should follow suite with a goal of $5.90 then $6.04/bu US.

I hope this is a realistic goal, $5.90 March would make wheat a decent price.

Everything is pointing towards holding wheat until summer.

[farming101]

Hey Tech, move up your stops! I think you're going to run out of time in the March. What are your targets for May?

Update: Move 'em up some more!

[TechAnalyst]

Good point farming, I absolutely would expect to have to roll to May futures as the time before first notice day for the March runs out.

Today's strong rally suggests we should be on our way now to the May futures targets which are as follows,

May Chicago wheat - $6.20 initially, $6.38 potentially
May Kansas wheat - $5.39 initially, $5.55 potentially
May Minneapolis wheat - $6.00 initially, $6.15 as a potential secondary

It is worth noting that the Chicago wheat futures went inverted on Friday and built on that today. For those not sure, what that means is the March futures are now a premium to the May futures (instead of the normal discount for the cost of carrying the inventory to May). That is a bullish sign as it shows the need for inventory sooner rather than later.

[malleefarmer]

News wires suggest it was official Australian wheat yields think 15.8 mill tonne.
Since October it’s been known and the ma4ket reacts now??

Could’ve happened during our harvest might have got 370 per tonne straight of the combine......

Other grain news Australia granted permit to export into Indonesia feed barley.

Betcha down around 4 to 6 cents tommorow

[Oliver88]

Mallee, smallest wheat crop in 12 years?

[TechAnalyst]

News wires suggest it was official Australian wheat yields think 15.8 mill tonne.
Since October it’s been known and the ma4ket reacts now?

Given the surge in gold and silver yesterday as well, I suspect it had more to do with some entity wanting to own commodities that had very little to no exposure to China (thus the lack of interest in the energy or oilseed markets).

May well have been from money that had been taken out of the record high stock market as an overall portfolio management plan.

If so, that would be a positive development as it's not usually a one day affair.

Just a thought...

[farming101]

May Kansas wheat 3 gaps down.
Oversold for sure, but I wouldn't say Chicago or Minneapolis is so it might not matter

[malleefarmer]

Short term thinking this is gonna get boyhu.

[Oliver88]

Wheat prices have gained last week due to basis improvement (drop in CDN $).

[malleefarmer]

Wheat prices have gained last week due to basis improvement (drop in CDN $).

Same here our dollar 62 cents lost 5 cents since nov

[TechAnalyst]

That brings up a good point.

Assuming the entire world economy doesn’t have a complete meltdown, those with money will eventually look for new areas to invest in. That usually is in sectors that have performed well during times of weakness.

It may be our turn to get thrown down the outhouse next but so far, grains and oilseeds have held up relatively well. Especially when they are converted to Canadian dollars.

Should that continue and the world begins to believe it understands the scope of damage – allowing investors the confidence to stick their toes back in the water, we may see the benefit of their interest.

Meanwhile, the bright side of all of the ugly human behavior (panic hording) that this has highlighted is the need to take food security and supply seriously. Maybe the days of just in time inventory will be looked at negatively instead of celebrated.

For now, let’s just pretend all this excessive money being injected at zero interest rates will lead to the food we produce getting the respect it deserves.

[malleefarmer]

Bit of red tonight again.

Wheat is sneaking back up to $300 port for dec delivery take of $30 for my on farm price.

Falling currency’s holding up our prices.

Canola was 590 didn’t check today again port price take of 30