Food Chain Disruptions

[jazz]

Zeihan on Europe;

https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/crfeurope-1214767 The Cutting Room Files, Part 7: Europe

[macdon02]

I have heard underground rumours of an attempt to do a partial backing of US dollar with gold, assets and oil. Maybe that's what he leading to. The US as worlds reserve currency backed with gold and enforced with financial clout and energy independence.

Never ..... that's like saying govt is gonna be accountable with debt. I could see it if global debt was shrinking or a govt somewhere in the world wasn't issuing new debt without rolling the old. It would limit their borrowing ability. All that's getting done today is interest paid and re-issue the principal. And no it can't go on much longer. It will change in our life time. If this is what he's alluding to, there'd be so many clues like complete failure in lt bonds and even our ag futures would take on a "new" value. Picture Venezuela. We are not there yet.

[jazz]

Never ..... that's like saying govt is gonna be accountable with debt. I could see it if global debt was shrinking or a govt somewhere in the world wasn't issuing new debt without rolling the old. It would limit their borrowing ability. All that's getting done today is interest paid and re-issue the principal. And no it can't go on much longer. It will change in our life time. If this is what he's alluding to, there'd be so many clues like complete failure in lt bonds and even our ag futures would take on a "new" value. Picture Venezuela. We are not there yet.

Macdon as I understand it, the reserve currency is the ultimate hammer on the debt in the world. The US can simply decide to disavow the dollar, claim a debt jubilee and then create a new currency regime and go on their merry way. The rest of the world is holding those bonds and dollars. Russia has billions stuffed in mattresses. They would be all worthless. US resets, brings out its 250,000 tons of gold and says here is the new currency, either use it or don't do business with us or our banks. US would force oil trade into the new regime and nobody could stop them.

[macdon02]

Macdon as I understand it, the reserve currency is the ultimate hammer on the debt in the world. The US can simply decide to disavow the dollar, claim a debt jubilee and then create a new currency regime and go on their merry way. The rest of the world is holding those bonds and dollars. Russia has billions stuffed in mattresses. They would be all worthless. US resets, brings out its 250,000 tons of gold and says here is the new currency, either use it or don't do business with us or our banks. US would force oil trade into the new regime and nobody could stop them.

If they did that, there'd be total loss of confidence, it would be the end for the US. I understand what your saying. Im at the rink at the moment and trying to catch this Dan Pena on Joe Rogan youtube.

[furrowtickler]

If they did that, there'd be total loss of confidence, it would be the end for the US. I understand what your saying. Im at the rink at the moment and trying to catch this Dan Pena on Joe Rogan youtube.

Dan Pena is a bit over the edge , but he called it a year before Trump got elected and slams the climate cult as it is ....a cult

[errolanderson]

Cascading economic ‘sudden stops’ has been the phrase used by financial world this weekend. Disruptions in most global trade channels. Apparently, New Zealand lobsters re-released into the ocean as ship movement is stranded.

Italy appears attempting to contain a region just outside of Milan. Germany, Singapore, Korea, Iran also seeing infection spikes.

China is pouring freshly printed Yuan currency into their markets as an emergency liquidity backstop. Fed is trying to lower their bulging repo balance sheet. EU central bank in disarray. Central banks are about to lose control (IMO).

Gold may be rocketing again tomorrow. VIX volatility may be jacked as market values sway. History in-the-making . . . .

[biglentil]

Cascading economic ‘sudden stops’ has been the phrase used by financial world this weekend. Disruptions in most global trade channels. Apparently, New Zealand lobsters re-released into the ocean as ship movement is stranded.

Italy appears attempting to contain a region just outside of Milan. Germany, Singapore, Korea, Iran also seeing infection spikes.

China is pouring freshly printed Yuan currency into their markets as an emergency liquidity backstop. Fed is trying to lower their bulging repo balance sheet. EU central bank in disarray. Central banks are about to lose control (IMO).

Gold may be rocketing again tomorrow. VIX volatility may be jacked as market values sway. History in-the-making . . . .

Samsung joins Jaguar and Fiat Chrysler with factory shutdowns due to Covid19.

[jazz]

Like I said before, this crisis and some of trumps moves will renationalize a lot of production. People are seeing how vulnerable just in time supply chains are and even more so when that just in time provider is 10k miles away across an ocean and behind a communist curtain.

US was getting 90% of their pharmacutical antibiotics from china? Like who ever authorized such a short sighted move? There are lots of other examples. There will be companies who have to operate in a super slave labour area to make thier goods, those will be split up among china, vietnam, philipines and indonesia so probably to India now. Others will say the heck with it and repatriate their entire operation closer to their richest customer base which is the US.

[errolanderson]

Like I said before, this crisis and some of trumps moves will renationalize a lot of production. People are seeing how vulnerable just in time supply chains are and even more so when that just in time provider is 10k miles away across an ocean and behind a communist curtain.

US was getting 90% of their pharmacutical antibiotics from china? Like who ever authorized such a short sighted move? There are lots of other examples. There will be companies who have to operate in a super slave labour area to make thier goods, those will be split up among china, vietnam, philipines and indonesia so probably to India now. Others will say the heck with it and repatriate their entire operation closer to their richest customer base which is the US.

Jazz, please take no offence, but the U.S. has to stop admiring themselves in-the-mirror. The American economy is already in recession . . . and they don’t even know it.

[jazz]

Jazz, please take no offence, but the U.S. has to stop admiring themselves in-the-mirror. The American economy is already in recession . . . and they don’t even know it.

That may be true, but that would mean 200 other countries are too and in even worse including china, all of it being papered over with CB printing.

[biglentil]

It's way too early to predict what the recovery of this black swan event will look like we are still in the 1st inning.

[ajl]

That may be true, but that would mean 200 other countries are too and in even worse including china, all of it being papered over with CB printing.

Yes the rest of the world is in a depression. The US economy is slowing but they alone still have a pot to pee in. If the ROW (rest of world) need the US to come to its rescue again, the least they could do is ask nice.