Food Chain Disruptions

[errolanderson]

George Orwell’s 1984 may be taking on a ‘whole new meaning’ . . . .

With a gradual spread of coronavirus globally, food chains will be impacted. There is already a small Italian town in lockdown. And countries like Sweden importing 90 percent of their food from Southern Europe are at serious exposure. There may be a race to fill freezers.

To me, a food distribution problem will be a tipping stone for markets and economies. Central bankers can’t manipulate this situation. Gold is now rocketing on investor fear. Stock markets again saw record highs this week oblivious of food chain risks and impact on the economy (IMO). To say investors are blind and greedy is a huge understatement.

Now data released yesterday shows U.S. PMI manufacturing in decline and contraction (recession), with weakness in service industry. This weakness began long before coronavirus (IMO), now this . .. The USD took a heavy hit yesterday on newfound reality yesterday.

So where do markets go now?. . . . next week? . . . next month?

[ajl]

Right now the hope and prayer is for prevent plant to keep us from having huge unmanageable surpluses in NA of ag commodities. I think this will materialize. The Dakota's will not plant all the forecast corn and there will even be prevent plant around Edmonton here with a combination of lots of snow, unharvested crops and empty bank accounts making too wet to seed attractive. A slowdown in the US is likely this year combined with global economy being in permanent recession. However, shorting the US market will continue to be perilous because where is all the new central bank cash around the world going to go? Markets the past couple of weeks have had to absorb all the new cash from the PBOC which resulted in some calls that I sold getting exercised so no short side gains there.

[errolanderson]

Right now the hope and prayer is for prevent plant to keep us from having huge unmanageable surpluses in NA of ag commodities. I think this will materialize. The Dakota's will not plant all the forecast corn and there will even be prevent plant around Edmonton here with a combination of lots of snow, unharvested crops and empty bank accounts making too wet to seed attractive. A slowdown in the US is likely this year combined with global economy being in permanent recession. However, shorting the US market will continue to be perilous because where is all the new central bank cash around the world going to go? Markets the past couple of weeks have had to absorb all the new cash from the PBOC which resulted in some calls that I sold getting exercised so no short side gains there.

ajl, we have been in new economic waters for several years now with central banks shielding investors from reality. Markets were already heading into debt crisis mode before corona, now this . . . . Food chain disruptions are inevitable. The question now is; what will be inflationary? . . . what will be deflationary? This will depend on demand, which will depend on transportation and Human Resources.

Have been in contact with Italian economist this morning. In his view, fallout will hit Italy hard within 2 months. Sweden contacts are concerned.

I was told ‘point blank’ this week; stocks markets can’t come down . . . What a bubble and bubble talk . . . .

[biglentil]

ajl, we have been in new economic waters for several years now with central banks shielding investors from reality. Markets were already heading into debt crisis mode before corona, now this . . . . Food chain disruptions are inevitable. The question now is; what will be inflationary? . . . what will be deflationary? This will depend on demand, which will depend on transportation and Human Resources.

Have been in contact with Italian economist this morning. In his view, fallout will hit Italy hard within 2 months. Sweden contacts are concerned.

I was told ‘point blank’ this week; stocks markets can’t come down . . . What a bubble and bubble talk . . . .

Strong Language Caution
https://mobile.twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1230714279155757056 https://mobile.twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1230714279155757056

[jazz]

Have been in contact with Italian economist this morning. In his view, fallout will hit Italy hard within 2 months. Sweden contacts are concerned.

We have known for quite a while that Italy will be the catalyst to bring down the EU, Spain in there too and there is fresh talk of France exiting just like UK did. With Germany trying to prop itself up on Chinese trade they too are wading into uncertain waters.

The whole system may unravel but I am betting the US is still standing after it all. Canada is road kill, our only saving grace is due to security, Trump take us over.

[Guest]

strong language caution
https://mobile.twitter.com/karluskap/status/1230714279155757056 https://mobile.twitter.com/karluskap/status/1230714279155757056

everyone , listen to this !!!!!!!!!!!

[furrowtickler]

George Orwell’s 1984 may be taking on a ‘whole new meaning’ . . . .

With a gradual spread of coronavirus globally, food chains will be impacted. There is already a small Italian town in lockdown. And countries like Sweden importing 90 percent of their food from Southern Europe are at serious exposure. There may be a race to fill freezers.

To me, a food distribution problem will be a tipping stone for markets and economies. Central bankers can’t manipulate this situation. Gold is now rocketing on investor fear. Stock markets again saw record highs this week oblivious of food chain risks and impact on the economy (IMO). To say investors are blind and greedy is a huge understatement.

Now data released yesterday shows U.S. PMI manufacturing in decline and contraction (recession), with weakness in service industry. This weakness began long before coronavirus (IMO), now this . .. The USD took a heavy hit yesterday on newfound reality yesterday.

So where do markets go now?. . . . next week? . . . next month?

Just wait till they try to shut down fossil fuels ..... this is just the tip of the “iceberg” .
Those big ocean ships and trains don’t run on unicorn piss .
Sweden the climate champion and other food importing nations will be screwed .....but hey they will get what they wish for

[jazz]

everyone , listen to this !!!!!!!!!!!

What is he exactly taking about? Trump? US resurgence? Rewriting global economics? Trade? End of central bank shenanigans?

[macdon02]

everyone , listen to this !!!!!!!!!!!

He's not saying anything other then the end is here. I suspect he's selling physical gold, not buying. Giant red flag is display of emotion. Trying to get everyone on board is a sales pitch. If it ever comes across that you are missing the boat, chances are your missing nothing but getting fleeced. He's selling fear. "It's not what you don't know that'll kill you, it's what you know for an absolute fact that'll do it"

[malleefarmer]

The man who died in Veneto, for example, did not meet the main risk factors for the virus when he was diagnosed with pneumonia two weeks ago: he hadn’t traveled to China or come into contact with anyone who did. Therefore, the ill man wasn’t originally tested for the virus.

Internet of course but seems legit has to be a Chinese link somewere inadvertently

Australia were I live hot and dry viruses struggle but not so northern aust were climate way different

[malleefarmer]

Hmmmmm watch this space

Despite the alarm, authorities urged calm and tried to balance precautionary closures with the economic reality of regions highly dependent on tourism and commerce. Hotel reservations in Venice were down one-third during the first weekend of Carnival, though floods in the lagoon city late last year likely scared off visitors.

“This is not an Italian ’Wuhan,″” insisted Ivana Jlenic, president of the federation of Italian tourism and travel agencies, Fiavet. “Avoiding all travel at this time would just be alarmist.”

[jazz]

He's not saying anything other then the end is here. I suspect he's selling physical gold, not buying. Giant red flag is display of emotion. Trying to get everyone on board is a sales pitch. If it ever comes across that you are missing the boat, chances are your missing nothing but getting fleeced. He's selling fear. "It's not what you don't know that'll kill you, it's what you know for an absolute fact that'll do it"

I have heard underground rumours of an attempt to do a partial backing of US dollar with gold, assets and oil. Maybe that's what he leading to. The US as worlds reserve currency backed with gold and enforced with financial clout and energy independence.

[jazz]

Zeihan on Europe;

https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/crfeurope-1214767 The Cutting Room Files, Part 7: Europe

[macdon02]

I have heard underground rumours of an attempt to do a partial backing of US dollar with gold, assets and oil. Maybe that's what he leading to. The US as worlds reserve currency backed with gold and enforced with financial clout and energy independence.

Never ..... that's like saying govt is gonna be accountable with debt. I could see it if global debt was shrinking or a govt somewhere in the world wasn't issuing new debt without rolling the old. It would limit their borrowing ability. All that's getting done today is interest paid and re-issue the principal. And no it can't go on much longer. It will change in our life time. If this is what he's alluding to, there'd be so many clues like complete failure in lt bonds and even our ag futures would take on a "new" value. Picture Venezuela. We are not there yet.

[jazz]

Never ..... that's like saying govt is gonna be accountable with debt. I could see it if global debt was shrinking or a govt somewhere in the world wasn't issuing new debt without rolling the old. It would limit their borrowing ability. All that's getting done today is interest paid and re-issue the principal. And no it can't go on much longer. It will change in our life time. If this is what he's alluding to, there'd be so many clues like complete failure in lt bonds and even our ag futures would take on a "new" value. Picture Venezuela. We are not there yet.

Macdon as I understand it, the reserve currency is the ultimate hammer on the debt in the world. The US can simply decide to disavow the dollar, claim a debt jubilee and then create a new currency regime and go on their merry way. The rest of the world is holding those bonds and dollars. Russia has billions stuffed in mattresses. They would be all worthless. US resets, brings out its 250,000 tons of gold and says here is the new currency, either use it or don't do business with us or our banks. US would force oil trade into the new regime and nobody could stop them.