A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

[helmsdale]

Almost like 2008 period where the market cheered on bad news because it meant more stimulus money and policy, while selling good news, since it could mean the end of the largesse.

The, "Don't fight the fed" mentality is going to take longer to die than many think... From those more knowlegeable than I, a No Bullshit Assessment would be appreciated to this question:

What is your best guess as to how far they can "kick the can" down the road?

It was punted far further than I thought was possible post '08. I *feel* like the outcome is inevitable, but it seems delusion is still more powerful than reality!

[errolanderson]

And this news surprised absolutely no one:
[ATTACH]5775[/ATTACH]

Almost like 2008 period where the market cheered on bad news because it meant more stimulus money and policy, while selling good news, since it could mean the end of the largesse.

The $2 trillion U.S. Congress corona stimulus may have the shelf-life of a jug-of-milk. Retracement in-progress (usually 50 to 66%) of the crash and then the next shoe classically drops . . . . likely in April.

[helmsdale]

on DOW:
50% retracement = 23,891
60% = 25027
70% = 26,162

S&P
50% = 2793
60% = 2913
70% = 3033

At current levels that leaves upside room of:
Dow 50%: 1737
60%: 2873
70%: 4008

S&P 50%: 213
60%: 333
70%: 453

Thousand point swings to the upside, with a few gyrations down, put us there early april easily I think.

[farming101]

Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity

[TechAnalyst]

Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity

I believe that's because there is no other market with as much manipulation for political purposes. Pardon the pun but politics Trump fair price discovery there.

[farmaholic]

The Fed has officially thrown-the-kitchen-sink at the stock market this morning . . . “ QEternity “ . . . and the Dow is still down . . . not good.

Getting kinda hard to kick the can down the road.
Hard to make contact and when you do it doesn't go very far.
Note the logo on the can.

[shtferbrains]

I believe that's because there is no other market with as much manipulation for political purposes. Pardon the pun but politics Trump fair price discovery there.

Donald Pump doing his best!

[errolanderson]

October, 1929

The S&P index plunged 34 percent in a month.

This was followed by a crazy 18 percent two (2) day relief rally.

Then, the S&P crashed a further 26 percent in next 13 days.

Eerie resemblance of market cycles repeatIng . . . .

[farmaholic]

Is it too late to say strap in?

Thankfully, my portfolio is as diverse as it is. If the bulk of it was in ETF's, Mutual Funds and the stock market....I might be looking for a tall tree and a short rope.

Farmland, farm cash, grain inventory and personal cash values "Trump" my "retirement SAVINGS"....by a long shot.
Since I was about 20 years old I've been saving money.... in Mutual funds after the wheels fell off the GIC interest rates.
I've kept track of my deposits and I'm afraid to look if I even have all my initial money I put in to those useless things.
And I fed the lazy parasites along the way....you know the guys....financial "advisors" and Fund "managers"....both terms used as loosely as possible, who never seem to want to sell "highs" and crystallize some gains but are sooooo quick to encourage buying the crashes and dumping more money into those stingy useless bottomless pits(ETF'S and Mutual Funds). I'm tired of all the old clichéd mantras..... Buy and hold, you can't guess the highs, you can't time the market, buy the dips, inflation is eroding your GICs.... ad nauseum.

Record high stock markets, a precarious world economy, and Covic-19 about to unleash itself on the world.....
Should have seen the economic turmoil coming 1000 miles away. When I mentioned sitting in cash(after the fact) to my "Advisor", he laughed at me, maybe he misunderstood the timeline of my comment, I'm not always crystal clear you know!
Maybe I shouldn't be where I am....RBC Dominion Securities.

I've endured more "corrections" in the market than my parents ever did, and speaking in relative terms, my parents did better than I did saving for their retirement. It wasn't just how much they invested as how good the returns were!!!
Remember, in speaking in relative terms.

This time it might leave a scar.

[farming101]

Right now I'm with Errol on this one, 50% retrace. As I also mentioned on another thread the DOW is not something that can be successfully charted over time. It seems to break the rules with striking regularity

.382 anyone?

[helmsdale]

There's one hell of a short term racket that the US fed has set up for institutional investors at the moment...

US treasury is issuing its short term treasury notes at the moment for 0.00%, even though they are trading on the open market at negative rates. Investment banks are buying those treasuries and turning around and re-selling them immediately on the open market for more than the government says they're worth thereby making them into negative return assets... NICE! Literal FREE $$$.

Also seeing that repo market is essentially failing... The FED has substantially upped their repo funding, but on the other hand their QEternity is straight up purchasing MBS's, and treasuries. Why the hell would you commit to take them back in the short term, when you can simply dump them onto the Fed's balance sheet and recieve cash! At that point, you know full well you're going to be dumping your "questionable" or uncertain securities and holding on to your most solid, so you can unload your possibly toxic shit onto the fed! Damn, these are interesting times indeed!

[farming101]

50% retrace in the DOW tried out today.

[shtferbrains]

"At the peak of the 2008–2009 recession, the "recent labour underutilization rate" was 12.8%. In March, about a quarter of the potential labour force (23.0%) was unemployed, working reduced hours or recently out of the labour force."

Stocks always go up.

It's all priced in.

[TSIPP]

**** the stocks buying guns and ammunition will keep you fed and safe

[TSIPP]

Really, what’s wrong with the F word???