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A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

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    #11
    Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
    The stock market crash this week will have a big impact on attitudes toward easy money, the price paid from Fed manipulation, consumer debt and leverage. Credit markets globally are going to be impacted . . . some may seize-up . . . . much like what happened in 2008. Liquidity problems between lenders is a real risk. This is called the repo market. But this time, supplies chains are also disrupted.

    China produces 90% of the ingredients required for U.S. drug manufacturers. Also, China has clear global control of rare earth metal alloys. This could trigger shortages. The U.S. economy was already struggling, now this. Global commodity markets will be hit hard.

    In my view, the watch is now on credit markets. Credit markets are the inner plumbing. U.S. 10-year treasury yields hit an all-time low of 1.25% today.

    Debt no longer generates growth, it hasn't for a long time. But the Fed kept bailing the market out. Now debt has now become an insidious risk to both consumers and business. And there are no big guns left to save the day from the Fed. Rates cuts now offer what?

    Group; this is history in-the-making and a changing-of-the-guard and attitudes in-progress . . . Buying the dip mentality is clearly old school. For those that have cash in their pocket, there may be massive opportunities ahead (IMO).
    Agree it all looks bad but now what? How does it play out on our level as farmers? Are we talking 2008 bad where we really didnt notice or 1930s bad where we are walking away from the farm?

    I really cant wrap my mind around what a significant recession / downturn would look like in today's world. Cant really see too many downtown guys out hunting for supper or living off the land. Or does it just mean one less winter holiday, only half as many hockey games or one less toy in the garage?

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      #12
      Countries with the weakest leadership and lack of economic vision will get hit hard .... Canada ...

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        #13
        Loonie is shitting its pants, finally.....

        Euro needs to end month over 1.105 to reverse trend or DXY is on a moonshot.

        Yen needs 111.7

        Gold needs 1698 to imply upward
        Last edited by macdon02; Feb 27, 2020, 21:47.

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          #14
          Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
          Loonie is shitting its pants, finally.....

          Euro needs to end month over 1.105 to reverse trend or DXY is on a moonshot.

          Yen needs 111.7
          CAD failed to make 78 last Dec. Opened possibilities for 72 in 2020. A lot of empty space below after today.

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            #15
            Gold having a volatile week on virus and commodity fallout . . . . Gold prices down $90 per oz since Monday rocket highs. Gold is now in a tug-a-war between fear-stuck investors and immense commodity deflationary pressures.

            Fallout in crude is pressuring the loonie. Weekly WTI shows key support around $44 per barrel, but this is a moving target given geo-political tensions could arise.

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              #16
              Originally posted by errolanderson View Post
              Gold having a volatile week on virus and commodity fallout . . . . Gold prices down $90 per oz since Monday rocket highs. Gold is now in a tug-a-war between fear-stuck investors and immense commodity deflationary pressures.

              Fallout in crude is pressuring the loonie. Weekly WTI shows key support around $44 per barrel, but this is a moving target given geo-political tensions could arise.
              Fuel prices haven't moved nor have any inputs to the farm...

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                #17
                Wonder which country will get the 1st bail in with a substantial haircut off all savings? Negative rates coming very soon or will it be helicopter money? Yippeee! Gold back to 1630usd flat for a week ohhh the humanity. Gold getting dragged down a little by margin calls from general equity investors as the titanic begins to sink.
                Last edited by biglentil; Feb 28, 2020, 07:02.

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                  #18
                  Next week could be a buy opportunity a big buy opportunity. Any one who figured pull all stocks a week ago when it went way up and Parker that cash can come in next week and double down again.

                  I repeat the USA is not faltering.


                  Canada is and we have zero leadership

                  That’s should be the title.

                  Oh and the Toronto stock exchange performed where on the world oh yea almost dead last.

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                    #19
                    U.S. Treasury yields tumbling . . . 2-year treasuries now 0.99% this morning. VIX volatility index now rocketing as high as when Lehman Bros went belly-up.

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                      #20
                      Originally posted by tweety View Post
                      And yet the months go by of doom posts, and the stock market keeps going up. One of these days you're bound to be right, but you don't have to be an analyst for that. Can i say i've been reading these posts for years now, and you've always been wrong? Terrible thing to say - but that is what has happened.
                      Yup..

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