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A Game-Changing Crash . . . .

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    Assuming the circuit breakers all blow tomorrow, trading pauses, i want to buy this with both fists. Peak fear is stuff you buy. Bonds have a top in and money has to go somewhere. Looking for 21k roughly but will use today's low as entry

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      Bout the only things green this morning are the VIX, the USD and treasuries

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        Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
        Assuming the circuit breakers all blow tomorrow, trading pauses, i want to buy this with both fists. Peak fear is stuff you buy. Bonds have a top in and money has to go somewhere. Looking for 21k roughly but will use today's low as entry
        Until coronavirus numbers stabilize instead of explode exponentially it's too dangerous to try and catch a falling knife imo.

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          Originally posted by biglentil View Post
          Until coronavirus numbers stabilize instead of explode exponentially it's too dangerous to try and catch a falling knife imo.
          This is the complete loss of confidence in govt to provide. What comes out of the other side will be what's real. It sounds corny as hell. But it isn't far off

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            Originally posted by macdon02 View Post
            This is the complete loss of confidence in govt to provide. What comes out of the other side will be what's real. It sounds corny as hell. But it isn't far off
            Will take a massive coordinated stimulus package by central banks to keep the market from seizing up completely. Took 800 billion in 2008, this one will take a few trillion minimum. The fed had been pumping hundreds of billions into the repo market before this happened. Wasn't enough.
            Last edited by biglentil; Mar 12, 2020, 08:25.

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              This is the time to start writing things off and deciding which businesses will survive.

              Won't happen. The crooks and skimmers will be made whole. Another long term transfer of wealth from those that earned it to those who never worked a day at any kind of manual labour in their whole life

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                Helicopter money, and debt jubilee.

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                  Should a guy be worried about cash in the bank?

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                    Originally posted by zeefarmer View Post
                    Should a guy be worried about cash in the bank?
                    you mean 0's an 1's on a screen, most banks have at least 5k cash on hand. No worries.

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                      Originally posted by biglentil View Post
                      Will take a massive coordinated stimulus package by central banks to keep the market from seizing up completely. Took 800 billion in 2008, this one will take a few trillion minimum. The fed had been pumping hundreds of billions into the repo market before this happened. Wasn't enough.
                      From Reuters:

                      The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday it will introduce $1.5 trillion in new repo operations this week and start purchasing a range of maturities as part of its monthly Treasury purchases.

                      The central bank will offer $500 billion in a three-month repo operation on Thursday. It will offer an additional $500 billion in one-month repo and $500 billion in three-month repo loans on Friday.

                      This marks the third substantial increase in repo support announced by the U.S. central bank this week, a sign the Fed is taking drastic steps to inject more liquidity into the banking system as markets begin to show signs of stress.

                      The Fed is also making notable changes to the maturities of the Treasury securities it purchases monthly to increase reserves. Starting on Friday, the central bank will buy across a range of maturities to match the composition of Treasury securities outstanding, including coupons, bills, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and Floating Rate Notes.

                      Until now, the Fed had focused its purchases on short-term Treasury bills, a move meant to emphasize that the balance sheet expansion was part of a technical effort to increase liquidity and not a way to provide stimulus.

                      U.S. stock markets cut losses after the Fed announced the adjustments. The changes were made at the direction of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in consultation with the Fed’s policy-making panel, the New York Fed said.

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                        Originally posted by AlbertaFarmer5 View Post
                        Helicopter money, and debt jubilee.
                        Basically the moment has arrived. There are 4 or 5 companies in the S&P ready to go bankrupt, probably a bunch more teetering. Fed through a trill at it and barely nudged the market.

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                          Originally posted by jazz View Post
                          Basically the moment has arrived. There are 4 or 5 companies in the S&P ready to go bankrupt, probably a bunch more teetering. Fed through a trill at it and barely nudged the market.
                          So Donald Pump announced $1,500 000 000 000 and the market shot up for 40 minutes.

                          How much of that money actually went into the economy and how does it get there?

                          I don't think any came here?

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                            Originally posted by shtferbrains View Post
                            So Donald Pump announced $1,500 000 000 000 and the market shot up for 40 minutes.

                            How much of that money actually went into the economy and how does it get there?

                            I don't think any came here?
                            My guess was a tad high on the stimulus I thought would be announced. but the market reaction was less than I anticipated. The patient (the economy) has flatlined and no response to even huge doses of drugs (stimulus). Not good...

                            To add some perspective 1.5 trillion is equivalent to the entire money supply that existed in 1975. Or 1.5 football fields of pallets stacked 2 high of 100 dollar Bill's.
                            Last edited by biglentil; Mar 12, 2020, 18:13.

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                              At this point, I can't see how any additional stimulus would improve the stock market. For the simple reason that lower stock valuations are likely justified given the extended hit the economy is taking over the coronavirus scare.

                              It is likely justified and even necessary to keep credit markets functioning, and hopefully some of it finds its way into businesses who through no fault of their own have been sideswiped by this, but why would an investor want to invest in stocks, even if the money comes from stimulus, when it seems almost guaranteed that at least the first and second quarter financial numbers will be bad, and likely only get worse, stocks are probably still finding their current justified valuation. Once a bunch more unknowns become knowns, we can go back to pricing stocks based on future expectations.

                              Comment


                                My god!

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