What is the CWB doing?

[Incognito]

United Sstates Wheat recently learned from trade servicing visits with flour mills in China’s southern Guangdong province that DNS wheat with 14.5 percent protein is commanding a premium of $0.65 per bushel over competitive Canadian western red spring wheat in local markets.

Source: http://ndwheat.com/in/news/news_detail.asp?ID=262

#1 DND delivered to Northgate, North Dakota - a whopping 10 miles from the US/CAN border - is $5.40 delivered. The CWB is suggesting a $4.19 bushel PRO and 1 CWRS 13.5 gives you $2.85 a bushel delivered on the west side of SK at the moment.

The same day the CWB releases the 04/05 PRO Minneapolis wheat was up 21 cents and then they release it DURING the market.

Why oh why are farmers putting up with this?

[cropduster]

NOTHING......that`s what they`re doing,except making sure the peasants don`t revolt!!!!Barley or lack of it being planted or sold by these clowns is going to be an even greater fiasco.They think BSE stands for Bull S&^%$ Everywhere and they want to be the best at that too!!At the cattle gathering in Red Deer the feedlot guys were complaining about lack of market signals.How can we have TRUE market signals with these goofs in command????End of rant.....

[TOM4CWB]

Cropduster;

Easy ole boy, smells like your tail feathers are burning!

Rome was not built in a day, nor did it fall apart in a day either!

The sad part is the complete frustration a very positive situation (Prices rising) can bring.

What exactly is the CWB PRO FOr?

Is it simply an alert to grain customers, that we will easily be bought out, at bargain prices even before we put the 04 crop in the ground?

What exactly does this do to "Maximise" our returns... telling the whole world we will sell cheap in 2004?

AM i slow, or what have I missed?

We said the same thing at the Dec C&C CWB meeting in Nisku... what kind of program puts out these negative terrible... self fulfilling prophecies?

We supply the market at low prices... is this again the GOOFY Law of the CWB... the lowest price is the law... and anyone who tries to get a better price... should be put in Jail?

[boone]

Tom4cwb: To be fair for the last how many years we have been hollering for them to disclose their best guess, now we should shoot the messenger. Our line companies as late as two months ago said farmers had unreal expectations for Canola, does that make them better or worse? Ask them how much Canola will drop based on best guess seeding intentions. Bet you won't like what you hear. And no I'm not forgiving them for there mistakes here.

[TOM4CWB]

Boone;

The CWB effects Crop Insurance, markets, and worst of all the PRO is the base for the PPO contracts.

This is a conflict of interest for the CWB... they think they are heros for doing better than the worst reasonable prediction they can make...

We need a reliable fair wheat hedging system, and the CWB must disconnect the PRO from PPO FPC/BPC contracts to start down the road to being fair to us.

But we all know the PRO is simply a weighted futures calculation with past, present and deffered sales calculated in, to finish the PRO blend. THis should have no effect on FPC deffered delivery contracts...

Hedges must match PPO contracts to get a reasonable basis calculation... which to my knowledge the CWB refuses to do. Fair is fair, not $25/t to the benefit of the POOLS.

[cropduster]

Tom4,let me add this conspiracy theory about how the CWB affects the cattle market also.It is known(CWB numbers) that they maintain approximately a 2 million tonne/year carryout of feed grains.Add that to the loss of the Crow and `short of going to jail` western farmers generally have NO other markets.Am wondering if anyone can tell me how much this `benefit` has artificially built the cattle industry in western Canada???Nothing against cattle producers.I am one too! And now look at the blood in the streets!!! Guess that`s why my tailfeathers get red every now and then!!!

[rain]

Cropduster how does the CWB carryout of feed grains every year benefit the livestock industry?

[cropduster]

With a limited market, the buyers of feed grain can offer anything less than the CWB does and cash strapped producers have to take it.There is no TRUE arbritrage.....(access to world markets for example)

[rain]

It is not the actual carryover that sauses the low prices then it is the low PRO?

[cropduster]

My theory is it`s more the carryover than the PRO but some would say either.If the PRO is to be taken as `gospel`it should affect plantings, but that`s a wild card.But then I don`t trust the CWB info machine at all.......

[Incognito]

Cropduster:

T.R.U.S.T.

The Russian Union Socialist Tyranny

TRUST

LOL...

[boone]

cropduster I'm in total agreement with you on carry of inventory. I say if your going to be in the biz of selling on grain growers behalf, when it comes to feed grains I would prefer a vacuum. It sometimes drags in Corn etc. but that would be the indication to strong holders to either blink and sell or hold and go blind. When market has the mentality that it will be there when they need it, the basis gets fat, and my babies go hungry.
Tom4cwb, you are mostly correct however cwb isn't the only ones forming value for cropinsurance (Provincial and Federal Ag. Bureaus) but leave me room to vacilate on this and you can revisit your firm opinion when needed. (grinnin)

[rain]

Does this mean you guys feel the carryover each year is unpriced or unsold grain? I alsways thought the carryout would be sold but defirred delivery?

[cropduster]

I`m thinking it`s the stuff left in yours/mine /our bins.Why would the CWB dirty their hands with it if they don`t need it immediately?Much like the Durum situation right now (although not a feed grain).Farmers will store it and look after it unquestionly(except for Tom!)so why would the CWB need to get excited about selling it??Oh yeah ,forgot,they are waitng for the best price,just like last year.......

[rain]

In my mind the carrout easch year has to be taken with the fact it id sold or it would not be in the system. Unsold grain except for durum would be on the farm.

I do not think your wheat carryout has anything to do with domestic prices unless the CWB sells into it.

I know for a fact however the PRO does help set the feed wheat bids.