I agree with chuck and macdon02

[helmsdale]

Now, put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!

I REALLY appreciate the guys that hammer out long thought out replies on this forum! If I have to reread it 2, 3, or 4 times, and spend 2 or 3 hours wandering down rabbit holes looking stuff up on the internet long after the kids have gone to bed, it's a solid 10/10 agriville contribution!

It keeps me coming back to this place!

[biglentil]

This idea that it's a 'piss poor' bioweapon is a fallacy. What makes this coronavirus a big problem is it's high R0 of 6-7. Meaning the typical person infected infects 6-7 more. To stop the spread harsh measures must be implemented to get the R0 below 1, like strict 28 day quarantines. I highly doubt that we can get that draconian here. The low death rate creates just enough apathy to allow the free movement of those exposed. This coronavirus is said to have the same case mortality rate as the spanish flu of 1918. There is a reason why the Spanish Flu is still talked about over a 100 years later.

I told you guys weeks ago pharmaceuticals would be the next big supply shock. Guess what India just announced a restriction on export of 26 pharmaceuticals. The hoarding by state actors begins. https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/world-pharma-supplier-india-restricts-export-of-some-ingredients-drugs/articleshow/74456716.cms https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/world-pharma-supplier-india-restricts-export-of-some-ingredients-drugs/articleshow/74456716.cms

[helmsdale]

This idea that it's a 'piss poor' bioweapon is a fallacy. What makes this coronavirus a big problem is it's high R0 of 6-7. Meaning the typical person infected infects 6-7 more. To stop the spread harsh measures must be implemented to get the R0 below 1, like strict 28 day quarantines. I highly doubt that we can get that draconian here. The low death rate creates just enough apathy to allow the free movement of those exposed. This coronavirus is said to have the same case mortality rate as the spanish flu of 1918. There is a reason why the Spanish Flu is still talked about over a 100 years later.

It all depends on what the stated, or for that matter, the unstated purpose of each bioweapon is for.

Is it unmitigated mass death? This one probably isnt to your liking.

Is it rapid onset? Yea this probably doesnt fit the bill either...

Is it thorough transmission, and challenging/expensive containment? Now were a little closer.

It's efficient, and effective, but it all depends on the goals you're seeking...

Whether this thing is a tri-party bioweapon wrought on the world, inadvertently by a concerned individual or it's natural in origin really is beyond the point now. Its HERE. The question is how do we manage the period from now till we develop a vaccine? That's of course assuming we have more success in creating a vaccine than we did with SARS...

As far as I see it, theres really only two options.
1) rolling quarantines in an attempt to starve it of new host's.
2) give it the fuel it wants, let it burn itself out, and hope the survivors have natural immunity.

(1) has immense short term pain for potential long term gain.

(2) sends alot of the most vulnerable to the promised land, but likely reduces the short term financial pain.

Its crude, and darwinian, but which one is the optimal outcome?

[biglentil]

That's right if the disease is too effective, too quick it tends to burn it self out. This one looks like it will be around for the long haul.

We definitely want to control and restrict the spread of this as much as possible. Let er rip and we could potentially see over half the worlds population sick at the same time. Its the nature of exponential growth and the 5 day doubling period. It could be a wave big enough to swamp the boat so to speak.

[malleefarmer]

Macdon02 love your posts really do

So nutshell markets were looking for a reason to “come off but not melt down” and corona was it?

Or have I simplified it to much?

Haven’t you guys ever heard the saying “China sneezes rest of world get pneumonia” very apt after what’s happened.

Ps don’t disagree with your post.

[malleefarmer]

Demand demand

Guess you guys saw China bought a million tonne of beans from Brazil yesterday kinda leaves USA in the lurch a bit shitloads of beans two years worth could happen some suggest will weigh heavily on all grains.

Macdon way better connected than I

[malleefarmer]

Big lentil I agree it’s a slow burn.


A so called expert today said corona is a near perfect virus, affected so many so quickly but he reinterated it will go away 6 months 12 maybe even more but will be a memory.

[BreadWinner]

Trudeau was busy shaking hands and smushing with the Iranian government leaders 14 days ago. They all have or are getting the virus now. Things might get interesting in Ottawa if rainbow boy gets sick.