I agree with chuck and macdon02

[malleefarmer]

A virus hoax? huh. Everything is a hoax?

No doubt all the corona virus victims faked their death in a massive hoax? LOL

Okay then!

Wall street fell and the Fed cut their interest rates because of a hoax? Why would they fall for the hoax?

Jazz, did you also happen to see Elvis at Costco Regina stocking up on toilet paper? Maybe it was Rory Allen?


Yeah the flu is a hoax. It's been 60 days since the outbreak and there's 3000 dead. If we have 2 more weeks and we don't have stacks of dead piled up in skating rinks, equities will snapback above the recent highs so fast it'll make the downside look like a blip. Realize we don't use leeches in modern medicine.... I'm still expecting a fresh low in equities but it doesn't have to. Huge opportunity here short term


Ain’t even flu season here and aussies falling victim, with no reason or connection to Asia or Iran. Our statehottest driest usually immuned from flu etc to a degree had 5 cases last night no expecting all to have a sad end.

Tis a worry

[sk_wheatking]

Has your account been hacked?

[malleefarmer]

A big meltdown for a hoax.

I have a89 yr old mother who in just ok health has some immune issues if she scratchers he leg for instance takes weeks to heal.

She’s a sitting duck for corona.

[sumdumguy]

I think you are over-reacting Mallee, I have 2x 95 year old mothers in homes and the common flu and colds could be a threat too, so do I freak every time the homes have quaranteens?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Not trying to put words in his mouth, but I think Macdon was being serious. In the big picture, this will be an irrelevant blip. Humans have done an adequate (but far from perfect) job of containing it, and treating it, the media will soon move on to the next big story, and this will fester away under the surface for a while longer before fading away. The damage isn't and wasn't going to be from human deaths, but from industry disruption trying to stop the spread.

[shtferbrains]

What about the economic damage that is going on today?

China

[jazz]

Its a hoax perpetrated by china and MSM to distract from the real story. It's a way for China to exert a crack down on its people. They stopped the HK protests like nothing. In the US the MSM is using it to slander trump even though he took more precautions than any other country. Trudeau using it for cover for his Marxist agenda and economy destroying policies.

3000 people is nothing. The city of Wuhan has 11m people. They are more people killed by bee stings everyday.

Get some perspective people.

[the big wheel]

Definately not a hoax some with screws loose in the brain
Area trying to down play this because they don’t know
How to handle it. This is something In addition
To flu etc much more contagious and more deadly
Those that don’t think so should go shake the hands
Of those that are infected or better yet offer up
Family members to show us all how safe this is.

Trump trying to down play it because every living
Soul that supports him only do because of the
Fake hoax that rhe economy is better with him.
If the economy tanks he’s toast because he sure won’t
Win on being a smart honest good person he’s a
Loser at every level. Why doesn’t he visit a person
Infected I d love to see him survive. Lmao????

[BreadWinner]

I think this is bug is allot more serious than we are being led to believe, the government is downplaying it to protect the economy and mass panic. Information coming through pubic forums say that 20% need ICU and 4% die it doesn’t seem to matter on age. Many doctors and nurses have died in China and they were under 45 years old. Just think if 4% of people died in your kids school or 4% in your town, that would be horrible. Death toll may go up because we don't have hardly any ICU beds available. Why would china build 2 huge hospitals if they were not needed? I hope the vaccine is not to many months away.

[Tucker]

If this map is correct and not fake news then getting sick isn't the worry. Supply chain problems are going to be a nightmare this summer. How many Chinese circuit boards, bearings or castings are in your John Deere equipment? All equipment, not just JD.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-changes-pollution-over-china.html China current pollution map.

The first pic is from January and the second from the start of February.

[macdon02]

Well that went sideways, i wont rush a post again. Ok let's go back 2 months, what was happening? Hong Kong was in the streets and they were pissed off at Xi. The unrest was spreading. A Doctor saw a bunch of people and said "we have a problem, and I'm going to do the right thing and say something". He got fired, 3 weeks later he was dead from what he was seeing in his patients. Slowly it got out of Wuhan and it spread slowly. Took almost a month to get here if not a full 2 from the time it started to show in China. All things considered, in this day and age, it's really slow. Can we trust the Chinese numbers? Uh no, I'm not saying they are lying, but there isn't a Doctor in that country willing to say anything because the govt stifled the whistle blower. Stick your head up and it'll get cut off, there's safety in the herd. Can we trust the CDC or Health Canada, no, because the tests the CDC issued had the wrong reactant in it, they don't work. To top it off, now the US and Canada is doing minimal testing. It's out there, there's no doubt. You can't keep an open border policy and not run the risk of a situation like this spreading instantly. There's too many flights on any given day. Here's where everything gets pretty grey if not dark. Back in 2017 the World Bank sold derivatives guaranteeing no pandemic for a 3 year period, expiry in 2020. They needed $ so they sold what they thought at the time a "guaranteed win". "Haven't had the big one since WW1, what's the risk? Modern medicine is pretty damn good, we can cure cancer, fix brains and do just about anything we set our minds to, quickly and efficiently. What we don't know is who issued these derivatives? WAS IT DEUTSCHE BANK??? If you haven't looked at the share price of a European bank, please do, they are on their last legs. When it comes to derivatives, these things can get leveraged several hundred:1. They always show up in "unthinkable" events. Some dumbass probably has bets on an asteroid not hitting earth. We don't know a lot of facts, likely for a reason, either govt doesn't know or .... we do know the whistle blower died, roughly within 3 weeks after infection at the ripe age of 36~. China also had a civil uprising on its hands, stir in some fear, lock everyone in their homes and no more riot.(Cross fingers this isn't serious). They had nothing to lose, riots would have shut down manufacturing in a widespread strike if it kept gaining traction, they have been there and everyone remembers. Did it come from Winnipeg? Maybe, but it's irrelevant, if this was a engineered weapon, it's a piss poor one. Is Chinas healthcare system top notch? I wouldn't fly there for treatment, China killed close to 50 million of their own citizens with Mao at the wheel, life isn't exactly precious. Is there motive to slow play it? Well there is a ton of debt in the world, everything is based on timely supply, timely payment(SWIFT system), and a 6 week shutdown would take the world to its knees, 90 days and it would be worldwide insolvency. Nothing QE would fix. It would likely lead to a contagion event, interest rates spiraling out of control upward, and a liquidity crisis, 2008 being a mere fraction. What else do we know? If you look at markets, specifically grains, on the theory dead people don't eat, corn, wheat and beans are all developing a bullish posture, I have them as "bottomed" for now, also have confirmation through the inverse trade in USD, its gonna pullback, and if you go to Euro and Yen, the futures contracts are not bearish, Yen I just don't understand but it's looking incredibly resilient, all things considered. There is a pretty good correlation on the Yen being inverted to gold, if one goes up the other goes down. Gold has 4 weeks left in its 16 week cycle to make a top, can it go higher? Yes, but in 4 weeks it's out of gas, the 16 week cycle isn't great at picking exact tops but you'll see the market go in opposite direction it's previously been on. Gold is the insurance policy, if SHTF itll rally, the pullback was too deep, the rally is stopped, it'll chew everyone up sideways as we wait for the all clear. Im wrong if it goes over 1700 and closes above on a weekly level. The equities.... the Dow tripped a bearish signal after bottoming, so even though we hooked a 1200 point day to the upside, I'm using the marketing hammer til i see a new low. We cleared resistance today but gut says wait.
Why hasn't ASF made it to North America after ravaging Chinas pork supply? Quarantines work. There's some things that North Americans are better at then the rest of the world. There's a reason we are where we are. We are good at what we do, whether it's ag or medicine or finance, etc. Are we due for something because we take it for granted, those things are in the past? You bet, absolutely. The markets, are saying prove it, that this is the real deal. The signals are not there at this point. To be honest we don't know for sure that the markets are reacting to the flu, that's the narrative the media is pushing, if they knew markets, they wouldn't be reporting. But fear sells subscriptions and ads. It smells "risk off" since last Friday to me.

[sk_wheatking]

Well that went sideways, i wont rush a post again. Ok let's go back 2 months, what was happening? Hong Kong was in the streets and they were pissed off at Xi. The unrest was spreading. A Doctor saw a bunch of people and said "we have a problem, and I'm going to do the right thing and say something". He got fired, 3 weeks later he was dead from what he was seeing in his patients. Slowly it got out of Wuhan and it spread slowly. Took almost a month to get here if not a full 2 from the time it started to show in China. All things considered, in this day and age, it's really slow. Can we trust the Chinese numbers? Uh no, I'm not saying they are lying, but there isn't a Doctor in that country willing to say anything because the govt stifled the whistle blower. Stick your head up and it'll get cut off, there's safety in the herd. Can we trust the CDC or Health Canada, no, because the tests the CDC issued had the wrong reactant in it, they don't work. To top it off, now the US and Canada is doing minimal testing. It's out there, there's no doubt. You can't keep an open border policy and not run the risk of a situation like this spreading instantly. There's too many flights on any given day. Here's where everything gets pretty grey if not dark. Back in 2017 the World Bank sold derivatives guaranteeing no pandemic for a 3 year period, expiry in 2020. They needed $ so they sold what they thought at the time a "guaranteed win". "Haven't had the big one since WW1, what's the risk? Modern medicine is pretty damn good, we can cure cancer, fix brains and do just about anything we set our minds to, quickly and efficiently. What we don't know is who issued these derivatives? WAS IT DEUTSCHE BANK??? If you haven't looked at the share price of a European bank, please do, they are on their last legs. When it comes to derivatives, these things can get leveraged several hundred:1. They always show up in "unthinkable" events. Some dumbass probably has bets on an asteroid not hitting earth. We don't know a lot of facts, likely for a reason, either govt doesn't know or .... we do know the whistle blower died, roughly within 3 weeks after infection at the ripe age of 36~. China also had a civil uprising on its hands, stir in some fear, lock everyone in their homes and no more riot.(Cross fingers this isn't serious). They had nothing to lose, riots would have shut down manufacturing in a widespread strike if it kept gaining traction, they have been there and everyone remembers. Did it come from Winnipeg? Maybe, but it's irrelevant, if this was a engineered weapon, it's a piss poor one. Is Chinas healthcare system top notch? I wouldn't fly there for treatment, China killed close to 50 million of their own citizens with Mao at the wheel, life isn't exactly precious. Is there motive to slow play it? Well there is a ton of debt in the world, everything is based on timely supply, timely payment(SWIFT system), and a 6 week shutdown would take the world to its knees, 90 days and it would be worldwide insolvency. Nothing QE would fix. It would likely lead to a contagion event, interest rates spiraling out of control upward, and a liquidity crisis, 2008 being a mere fraction. What else do we know? If you look at markets, specifically grains, on the theory dead people don't eat, corn, wheat and beans are all developing a bullish posture, I have them as "bottomed" for now, also have confirmation through the inverse trade in USD, its gonna pullback, and if you go to Euro and Yen, the futures contracts are not bearish, Yen I just don't understand but it's looking incredibly resilient, all things considered. There is a pretty good correlation on the Yen being inverted to gold, if one goes up the other goes down. Gold has 4 weeks left in its 16 week cycle to make a top, can it go higher? Yes, but in 4 weeks it's out of gas, the 16 week cycle isn't great at picking exact tops but you'll see the market go in opposite direction it's previously been on. Gold is the insurance policy, if SHTF itll rally, the pullback was too deep, the rally is stopped, it'll chew everyone up sideways as we wait for the all clear. Im wrong if it goes over 1700 and closes above on a weekly level. The equities.... the Dow tripped a bearish signal after bottoming, so even though we hooked a 1200 point day to the upside, I'm using the marketing hammer til i see a new low. We cleared resistance today but gut says wait.
Why hasn't ASF made it to North America after ravaging Chinas pork supply? Quarantines work. There's some things that North Americans are better at then the rest of the world. There's a reason we are where we are. We are good at what we do, whether it's ag or medicine or finance, etc. Are we due for something because we take it for granted, those things are in the past? You bet, absolutely. The markets, are saying prove it, that this is the real deal. The signals are not there at this point. To be honest we don't know for sure that the markets are reacting to the flu, that's the narrative the media is pushing, if they knew markets, they wouldn't be reporting. But fear sells subscriptions and ads. It smells "risk off" since last Friday to me.

Now, put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!

[helmsdale]

Now, put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!

I REALLY appreciate the guys that hammer out long thought out replies on this forum! If I have to reread it 2, 3, or 4 times, and spend 2 or 3 hours wandering down rabbit holes looking stuff up on the internet long after the kids have gone to bed, it's a solid 10/10 agriville contribution!

It keeps me coming back to this place!

[biglentil]

This idea that it's a 'piss poor' bioweapon is a fallacy. What makes this coronavirus a big problem is it's high R0 of 6-7. Meaning the typical person infected infects 6-7 more. To stop the spread harsh measures must be implemented to get the R0 below 1, like strict 28 day quarantines. I highly doubt that we can get that draconian here. The low death rate creates just enough apathy to allow the free movement of those exposed. This coronavirus is said to have the same case mortality rate as the spanish flu of 1918. There is a reason why the Spanish Flu is still talked about over a 100 years later.

I told you guys weeks ago pharmaceuticals would be the next big supply shock. Guess what India just announced a restriction on export of 26 pharmaceuticals. The hoarding by state actors begins. https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/world-pharma-supplier-india-restricts-export-of-some-ingredients-drugs/articleshow/74456716.cms https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/world-pharma-supplier-india-restricts-export-of-some-ingredients-drugs/articleshow/74456716.cms

[helmsdale]

This idea that it's a 'piss poor' bioweapon is a fallacy. What makes this coronavirus a big problem is it's high R0 of 6-7. Meaning the typical person infected infects 6-7 more. To stop the spread harsh measures must be implemented to get the R0 below 1, like strict 28 day quarantines. I highly doubt that we can get that draconian here. The low death rate creates just enough apathy to allow the free movement of those exposed. This coronavirus is said to have the same case mortality rate as the spanish flu of 1918. There is a reason why the Spanish Flu is still talked about over a 100 years later.

It all depends on what the stated, or for that matter, the unstated purpose of each bioweapon is for.

Is it unmitigated mass death? This one probably isnt to your liking.

Is it rapid onset? Yea this probably doesnt fit the bill either...

Is it thorough transmission, and challenging/expensive containment? Now were a little closer.

It's efficient, and effective, but it all depends on the goals you're seeking...

Whether this thing is a tri-party bioweapon wrought on the world, inadvertently by a concerned individual or it's natural in origin really is beyond the point now. Its HERE. The question is how do we manage the period from now till we develop a vaccine? That's of course assuming we have more success in creating a vaccine than we did with SARS...

As far as I see it, theres really only two options.
1) rolling quarantines in an attempt to starve it of new host's.
2) give it the fuel it wants, let it burn itself out, and hope the survivors have natural immunity.

(1) has immense short term pain for potential long term gain.

(2) sends alot of the most vulnerable to the promised land, but likely reduces the short term financial pain.

Its crude, and darwinian, but which one is the optimal outcome?