Well that went sideways, i wont rush a post again. Ok let's go back 2 months, what was happening? Hong Kong was in the streets and they were pissed off at Xi. The unrest was spreading. A Doctor saw a bunch of people and said "we have a problem, and I'm going to do the right thing and say something". He got fired, 3 weeks later he was dead from what he was seeing in his patients. Slowly it got out of Wuhan and it spread slowly. Took almost a month to get here if not a full 2 from the time it started to show in China. All things considered, in this day and age, it's really slow. Can we trust the Chinese numbers? Uh no, I'm not saying they are lying, but there isn't a Doctor in that country willing to say anything because the govt stifled the whistle blower. Stick your head up and it'll get cut off, there's safety in the herd. Can we trust the CDC or Health Canada, no, because the tests the CDC issued had the wrong reactant in it, they don't work. To top it off, now the US and Canada is doing minimal testing. It's out there, there's no doubt. You can't keep an open border policy and not run the risk of a situation like this spreading instantly. There's too many flights on any given day. Here's where everything gets pretty grey if not dark. Back in 2017 the World Bank sold derivatives guaranteeing no pandemic for a 3 year period, expiry in 2020. They needed $ so they sold what they thought at the time a "guaranteed win". "Haven't had the big one since WW1, what's the risk? Modern medicine is pretty damn good, we can cure cancer, fix brains and do just about anything we set our minds to, quickly and efficiently. What we don't know is who issued these derivatives? WAS IT DEUTSCHE BANK??? If you haven't looked at the share price of a European bank, please do, they are on their last legs. When it comes to derivatives, these things can get leveraged several hundred:1. They always show up in "unthinkable" events. Some dumbass probably has bets on an asteroid not hitting earth. We don't know a lot of facts, likely for a reason, either govt doesn't know or .... we do know the whistle blower died, roughly within 3 weeks after infection at the ripe age of 36~. China also had a civil uprising on its hands, stir in some fear, lock everyone in their homes and no more riot.(Cross fingers this isn't serious). They had nothing to lose, riots would have shut down manufacturing in a widespread strike if it kept gaining traction, they have been there and everyone remembers. Did it come from Winnipeg? Maybe, but it's irrelevant, if this was a engineered weapon, it's a piss poor one. Is Chinas healthcare system top notch? I wouldn't fly there for treatment, China killed close to 50 million of their own citizens with Mao at the wheel, life isn't exactly precious. Is there motive to slow play it? Well there is a ton of debt in the world, everything is based on timely supply, timely payment(SWIFT system), and a 6 week shutdown would take the world to its knees, 90 days and it would be worldwide insolvency. Nothing QE would fix. It would likely lead to a contagion event, interest rates spiraling out of control upward, and a liquidity crisis, 2008 being a mere fraction. What else do we know? If you look at markets, specifically grains, on the theory dead people don't eat, corn, wheat and beans are all developing a bullish posture, I have them as "bottomed" for now, also have confirmation through the inverse trade in USD, its gonna pullback, and if you go to Euro and Yen, the futures contracts are not bearish, Yen I just don't understand but it's looking incredibly resilient, all things considered. There is a pretty good correlation on the Yen being inverted to gold, if one goes up the other goes down. Gold has 4 weeks left in its 16 week cycle to make a top, can it go higher? Yes, but in 4 weeks it's out of gas, the 16 week cycle isn't great at picking exact tops but you'll see the market go in opposite direction it's previously been on. Gold is the insurance policy, if SHTF itll rally, the pullback was too deep, the rally is stopped, it'll chew everyone up sideways as we wait for the all clear. Im wrong if it goes over 1700 and closes above on a weekly level. The equities.... the Dow tripped a bearish signal after bottoming, so even though we hooked a 1200 point day to the upside, I'm using the marketing hammer til i see a new low. We cleared resistance today but gut says wait.
Why hasn't ASF made it to North America after ravaging Chinas pork supply? Quarantines work. There's some things that North Americans are better at then the rest of the world. There's a reason we are where we are. We are good at what we do, whether it's ag or medicine or finance, etc. Are we due for something because we take it for granted, those things are in the past? You bet, absolutely. The markets, are saying prove it, that this is the real deal. The signals are not there at this point. To be honest we don't know for sure that the markets are reacting to the flu, that's the narrative the media is pushing, if they knew markets, they wouldn't be reporting. But fear sells subscriptions and ads. It smells "risk off" since last Friday to me.
Why hasn't ASF made it to North America after ravaging Chinas pork supply? Quarantines work. There's some things that North Americans are better at then the rest of the world. There's a reason we are where we are. We are good at what we do, whether it's ag or medicine or finance, etc. Are we due for something because we take it for granted, those things are in the past? You bet, absolutely. The markets, are saying prove it, that this is the real deal. The signals are not there at this point. To be honest we don't know for sure that the markets are reacting to the flu, that's the narrative the media is pushing, if they knew markets, they wouldn't be reporting. But fear sells subscriptions and ads. It smells "risk off" since last Friday to me.
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