Inflation/ Bonds

[Ache4Acres]

Helms. Nice post. Isn’t part of the reason we have not seen inflation is in fact because of simultaneous deflation happening simultaneously. The economy started to die in 2008 and only worsens. I have been watching this closely for the past 25 years or more. The deflationary pressure of an aging baby boom segment is very real. They all are getting less interested in spending money and more interested in staying alive.

What the the catastrophic collapse scenario look like to you? Debt jubilee is my guess

[jazz]

Guys, none of your basics are made in china. Your food is all made in the country, paper products, consumer staples all made on the continent. And thank goodness for that.

Unless you need some part or kids toys or iphone or furniture that falls apart, the world isnt going to end for us here. The major equipment makers all still on NA soil so they will be finding another source for any jobber parts pretty fast.

As far as inflation is concerned, this is really a zero sum game when you think about it. Fed and govts need to create it to create the illusion of wealth but they often cant control it, so you will see massive run ups in areas where people cant avoid it like food and massive deflation in discretionary items like electronics. That is creating a big squeeze.

[jazz]

Do they run on solar power when the Indians cut the power poles to bring down Canada again?

Someone on twitter was posting a way to connect up a mini butt pressure washer to the back of your toilet. I think I might move to that permanently. Cleans the toilet too.

[biglentil]

[/QUOTE]
This one just T's, takes a few minutes to install. Running out of tp is one less thing I have to worry bout.

[farming101]

Major disruption in toilet paper trade in the offing?
If the big guy next to you needs more I guess you just hand it over

[LEP]

I was at a comedy show earlier this week. The comedian joked, what is the difference between a water fountain and a bidet... about 10 beer.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

None of this low tech (and probably cold) pressure washers in our toilets, we went with the roto wipe, saving up to $284 per year in TP, and it is dishwasher safe.

prankalot.com/product/the-roto-wipe-say-goodbye-to-toilet-paper/ prankalot.com/product/the-roto-wipe-say-goodbye-to-toilet-paper/

With a 64 HP motor, even the most stubborn will-nots don't stand a chance.

[Misterjade9]

Your post AF5, is absolutely correct, except you forgot the other side of the equation, today's generation. There's a reason why the men and women who won WWII are called the greatest generation to ever live. They had just come out of a dozen years of depression, they knew the value of hard manual work and they knew the value of working together. Other than the Baby Boomers every successive generation that we have raised, especially in First World countries, have become softer and softer until we have what we see today, a generation that believes they are entitled to a high standard of living without contributing to it. Call me a pessimist, but I don't have the same confidence that you do when it comes to this new generation and their ability to step up when the going gets tough, as most of them have never wanted for anything and still ask for more.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Your post AF5, is absolutely correct, except you forgot the other side of the equation, today's generation. There's a reason why the men and women who won WWII are called the greatest generation to ever live. They had just come out of a dozen years of depression, they knew the value of hard manual work and they knew the value of working together. Other than the Baby Boomers every successive generation that we have raised, especially in First World countries, have become softer and softer until we have what we see today, a generation that believes they are entitled to a high standard of living without contributing to it. Call me a pessimist, but I don't have the same confidence that you do when it comes to this new generation and their ability to step up when the going gets tough, as most of them have never wanted for anything and still ask for more.

Let's word that differently. If any country in the world today has the resources, the population, the capital and the patriotism to do it, it is the US. In this day and age, with the technology we have, a small fraction of the population is all that is required, we don't need rosie the rivetter's by the millions this time around.

[biglentil]

Let's word that differently. If any country in the world today has the resources, the population, the capital and the patriotism to do it, it is the US. In this day and age, with the technology we have, a small fraction of the population is all that is required, we don't need rosie the rivetter's by the millions this time around.

All those things take time a sick and quarantined population is not a productive one.

[helmsdale]

Alot of the supply shock that is coming, or in the process of unfolding, can be substituted away from in the long run.
-Raw materials can be mined, refined, and shipped from other areas of the world.
-New factories can be built, and old factories can be retooled.
-New supply chains can be organized.

Trouble is, these don't happen in weeks, or even months. And they are all capital intensive projects which require a large degree of political certainty and societal stability. This all has to take place over the long term. And, we're quite stuck in a mindset that these are things prosperous first world nations do not do!

All of this COULD happen, but there is going to be tremendous resistance to making it happen. Path dependency is going to make alot of industry, and for that matter governments resistant to wholesale change. SO MUCH depends on the length of time of the supply side disruption. Many are still seeing the prospect of a V-shaped recovery, but the longer this lasts the more it will resemble a U shaped recovery. If it's a V shape, next to nothing is going to change, and we will need short term liquidity to weather this storm.

Does our "just in time" system have the resiliency to withstand much in the way of a bottom that is anything more than one financial quarter though? Our debt dependency has transformed alot of the system into just in time debt servicing as well. The longer the bottom the uglier this is going to get. And no-one has any clue how long it'll last... China's numbers with regards to the commie cough look appealing, but does sending their workforce back to work wholesale, and breaking quarantine, unleash a second wave? Your guess would be as good as mine. If a second wave results in mass infection rates, will faith in the Chi-com system be resilient or will it implode? Again, your guess is as good as mine.

There are a tremendous number of known unknowns, and possibly even a larger number of unknown unknowns, at the moment. The longer this drags on, the more the financial effects cascade.

[helmsdale]

Let's word that differently. If any country in the world today has the resources, the population, the capital and the patriotism to do it, it is the US. In this day and age, with the technology we have, a small fraction of the population is all that is required, we don't need rosie the rivetter's by the millions this time around.

Again though, all of that takes place on the long term horizon. It can certainly be done, but there's alot of carnage necessary between now, and then...