2004-05 PRO

[Incognito]

Boone:

seperstion?

You had me scrambling to Merriam - Webster and I still couldnt find it?

[boone]

incognito: Well maybe the Rogets thesaurus. Sorry about that but when my old decrepid hand slide past 30wpm my separations become sepersitions. Noticed it but after reading all these articles lately about how unnnnnecesary it is to spell words crecortly I said let it pass. Anyway I'm thinking charliep must have had a good holiday or his Viagra shares (wink nod) are coming through for him cause he seems to be firing on 8 cylinders with some of these posts here, Good Work. Anyone feeling good about the canola they sold on the 25th of Feb. Basis is widening and the americans have announced there would be no threat to their own beans if SA beans and or meal came in. Nice run anyway, hope it can firm Nov. into 385.00 territory. Notice it faded less tonight then Jan.Mar. Commercial are pressing retail hedgers(farmers) like Nov. any thoughts?

[Incognito]

It really depends on the SA crop. Quietly the USDA was nattering 62 MMT so it was no surprise that they went to 61 MMT for Brazil. A lot has changed since the last WASDE and i think it won't break either way until the next USDA report.

The WCE canola contract is discovering where farmers will sell - not the price of canola or canola oil.

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito;

At least those who needed $9/bu canola had a chance to get this price.

Those who could afford to sell at $8/bu sold and allowed the market to get to $9.

Same with the soybeans.

The CWB plan to give us all the lowest price... as the 04-05 price clearly dictates... offers no "premium price" for anyone in Canada.

The CWB can wipe out the Ontario Wheat Board in one year if they feel like it.

A marketer with no cost of sales (the CWB)is the biggest danger to any market!

[Incognito]

One question i had earlier was how many farmers were forced to sell canola off the combine because wheat was 2.50 and barley was 50 cents - i know Boone - it will be better - but cash is king and bills have to be paid.
I wish i could talk some MBA writing their thesis to tackle this question.


I am really disappointed with the CWB the last two years. They gave farmers the tools to become better marketers, forgot about educating them about the options and then failed miserably versus the rest of the world marketing grain.

How much market intelligence does it take to sell 1/12 of the crop in each month?

[TOM4CWB]

Incognito;

This is a real problem.

Which 12 months?

When a grain purchaser wants to buy, does the CWB sell and rehedge the sale to create the 1/12 per month?

I know the CWB really pushes domestic forward sales to millers... up to a year ahead. How does the CWB risk manage these sales?

When I buy inputs for my production, I try to pick the lowest price possible... is this not the case with grain purchasers, as I believe it is, how is the CWB handling the risk management of these transactions?

It is VERY obvious in 02-03 that the CWB got caught pre-selling too much...

In the Oct 02 "Update from the CWB" the CWB said:

"The CWB has not this year's entire crop at last year's prices." (use of the word "entire" leads to... a good portion?)"We have been a cautious seller of wheat and barley since the spring when drought conditions first became evident."(Before the drought was "evident" the CWB were strong sellers of the 02-03 crop?)

The resulting prices from the 02-03 pool tell the real story.

Now we must all pay, again... for the 02-03 blunder... in 04-05... Low PRO's, an election in the fall of 04... and all the political baggage that comes with this federal and CWB election.

[TOM4CWB]

I missed sold in the CWB quote;

"The CWB has not SOLD this year's entire crop at last year's prices."

[boone]

Post:I get up every morning and hope we have to eat our words here. But I did that in 2002 and I got the wrong kind of 'A Belly Full', God help us if Toms notion is correct. No one markets well under the gun, but this would be a travesty.