-Community spread in Alberta.
-Community spread in Ontario.
-**There has to be community spread in BC...**
-Seattle General hospital is rationing the most intensive care to those >40, BMI>25, with no other organ failures.
-Germany has closed borders to the south and west of them.
-Italy is a damned train wreck.
-Spain and France have gone essentially full quarantine.
-US fed drops to 0%, pretty much commits itself to open-ended liquidity.
To bring this all back to the ag world...
I'm getting concerned that contracted loads of yellow mustard which are to be called this month or next will get force-majeured on... If nobody's out at the sports venues, they sure as hell aren't going to be chowing down on ball park franks! I will have uncontracted mustard that I'm currently scared shitless to even phone and try to price at the moment!
If Shit his the fan... And it's looking like it's inevitable now, what the hell are we supposed to grow? Im thinking of taking yellow mustard right out of the rotation this year even though edge and sulphur has been purchased. Guess I could dump the edge onto pea acres and go without Viper.
I really don't know how else to play this? Should we be sticking strictly to staples? Specialties are going to be a hard sell, and if they rely nearly entirely on export markets, who's going to have cash on hand to buy, or be able to access credit?
Even for "staples", we can't possibly eat our way through canadian production, so who's going to be buying? Obviously people have to eat, but at what cost to *us*? Are we going to get strangled on the inputs end this year (minus fuel perhaps), but get the shaft on pricing? You can't possibly tell me that we're going to sell for top dollar this year considering everything else is taking the last couple swirls around the drain.
Now lets take it to funding/financing? There are not alot of guys out there these days that can afford to put a crop in on cash. I know of a few, but they are RARE! What is going to happen to credit when markets lose ALL faith in central banks? They can print all the monopoly money they want, but it might not matter. What are LOC's worth going forward?
As my title says... Things are moving QUICKLY! One twitter post I seen today:
"If you look back on life three days earlier, it is unrecognizable. That's been true in Italy for three weeks. It's terrifying to project it forward!" We operate on a seasonal basis. We were pissed about India re: pulse tariff, or China re: canola ban. That seems like an eternity ago! How the hell do you plan for this growing year when the ground beneath you has the consistency of quicksand?
-Community spread in Ontario.
-**There has to be community spread in BC...**
-Seattle General hospital is rationing the most intensive care to those >40, BMI>25, with no other organ failures.
-Germany has closed borders to the south and west of them.
-Italy is a damned train wreck.
-Spain and France have gone essentially full quarantine.
-US fed drops to 0%, pretty much commits itself to open-ended liquidity.
To bring this all back to the ag world...
I'm getting concerned that contracted loads of yellow mustard which are to be called this month or next will get force-majeured on... If nobody's out at the sports venues, they sure as hell aren't going to be chowing down on ball park franks! I will have uncontracted mustard that I'm currently scared shitless to even phone and try to price at the moment!
If Shit his the fan... And it's looking like it's inevitable now, what the hell are we supposed to grow? Im thinking of taking yellow mustard right out of the rotation this year even though edge and sulphur has been purchased. Guess I could dump the edge onto pea acres and go without Viper.
I really don't know how else to play this? Should we be sticking strictly to staples? Specialties are going to be a hard sell, and if they rely nearly entirely on export markets, who's going to have cash on hand to buy, or be able to access credit?
Even for "staples", we can't possibly eat our way through canadian production, so who's going to be buying? Obviously people have to eat, but at what cost to *us*? Are we going to get strangled on the inputs end this year (minus fuel perhaps), but get the shaft on pricing? You can't possibly tell me that we're going to sell for top dollar this year considering everything else is taking the last couple swirls around the drain.
Now lets take it to funding/financing? There are not alot of guys out there these days that can afford to put a crop in on cash. I know of a few, but they are RARE! What is going to happen to credit when markets lose ALL faith in central banks? They can print all the monopoly money they want, but it might not matter. What are LOC's worth going forward?
As my title says... Things are moving QUICKLY! One twitter post I seen today:
"If you look back on life three days earlier, it is unrecognizable. That's been true in Italy for three weeks. It's terrifying to project it forward!" We operate on a seasonal basis. We were pissed about India re: pulse tariff, or China re: canola ban. That seems like an eternity ago! How the hell do you plan for this growing year when the ground beneath you has the consistency of quicksand?
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