Why Go To Spain to Run With the Bulls

[rain]

Canola futures are going a little bonker righ now. More and more people jumping on the band wagon. Talk now of 500 canola futures. June July basis levels 0 to 5 delivered.

Pamplona has nothing on us.

[charliep]

Things have turned interesting. Still encouraged everyone to have targets and sell some (not necessarily all) when achieved. This is particularly the case on new crop. Given the 2004/05 PRO forecasts, canola is the most profitable game in town. Acres are going to rocket higher. A suggestion of a good friend (Greg Kostal/Sparks) is to start new crop pricing at $375/tonne (November futures) with 5 % of expected production and sell additional 5 % for every $5/tonne increment. Your ideas may be different but the point is to have a plan and be willint to execute when targets achieved.

[rain]

Charlie what was the crop insurance basis and futures they used for last year spring price endorsement for canola?

[charliep]

November futures. $15/tonne under. Same calculation this year. Checked AFSC and the 2004 coverage prices have not been posted yet.

[rain]

Do you know when the new rate will be posted?

[Incognito]

Basis levels are widening. Don't get greedy and sell into a rising market.

Right now beans are driving this thing, $1.20 up in a week, on crop worries in South America. Argentine is forecast for rain and it is just Brazil we are watching now. This could be a wild case of buy the rumour - sell the fact if worries do not come to fruition. Watch export sales in the morning - Chinese cancellations putting more supply back into the US will make it ugly.

A month ago, people were praying for $8.00 canola. Now we are at $9.00 . Do the fiscally prudent thing for your farm and protect some of your long cash position by selling this rally. If you keep moving your trigger up 25 cents, you will never hit it.

[rain]

Canola basis for June July .64 to 4.00. Basis is narrowing

[rain]

This is .64 and 4.00 over July

[boone]

incognito:good advice 'rhetorically' speaking, but farmers that grow canola think they are above the laws of good reason! In another time they would have all been gunslingers...............................in boot hill.

[Incognito]

basis levels in Sk at both crushers widened the last two days...

Who has the 4.00 July?

[Incognito]

Boone:

It's too early for rhetoric..you punster!!

Have a good day!

[boone]

incognito: "Touche, Messieur"

[rain]

Get a hold of Larry @ 403-934-3940 or e-mail him at grain1@telus.net that where I found out about the basis.

[Incognito]

SK Crushers widened out again this morning. July is now 11 under. We started Monday at 5 under.

[charliep]

With regards to the Alberta crop insurance price for canola, the level is $310/tonne. Lower than the current new crop price but more reflective of the forecasting groups expectations for this fall if canola acres increase 10 to 20 % and weather is cooperative this summer.