Hmmmm Markets?!

[Hamloc]

Had a little time between checking cows and took a quick look at the markets. Three things caught my eye, corn, soybeans and the Canadian dollar. I realize corn and soybeans aren't huge in Canada but they do tend to lead the grain markets. Any thoughts on supports or any reason for hope? Elevator deliveries seem slow here, sold grain not being called for.

[biglentil]

Had a little time between checking cows and took a quick look at the markets. Three things caught my eye, corn, soybeans and the Canadian dollar. I realize corn and soybeans aren't huge in Canada but they do tend to lead the grain markets. Any thoughts on supports or any reason for hope? Elevator deliveries seem slow here, sold grain not being called for.

Give it a week grain prices are about to rally in a big big way.

[farming101]

Give it a week grain prices are about to rally in a big big way.

That would be timely. Corn and Beans threatening to go through some major support.
Wheat wavering with Minneapolis the closest to setting a buy signal.
Veg oils near the bottom of the channel.
Canola last two buy signals were duds.

Could have all been worse considering what is happening in other markets. As was mentioned elsewhere the weaker dollar has softened the blow for Canadian priced grains

[Austrian Economics]

The collapsing Canadian dollar is not all win-win as much as we would like it to be. Suppose you are a medium to large farm which leases equipment every year, most of which is built in the United States. Your lease payments will rise inversely to the fall in the Canadian dollar. If you have signed longer term agreements, they may be difficult to get out of. If you get out of the lease, you are now stuck with a huge purchase of equipment that your business plan did not anticipate.

[farming101]

Corn new 3 1/2 year low today.
North Dakota cash bids 2.53

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I keep being reminded of the saying, A market that doesn't go down with bad news...(I forget the ending, but implies that it will go up, and the converse also being true) Couldn't throw much more bad news at a market right now, yet in CAD terms, our grain prices are holding nearly steady, often running in complete opposition to logic, historical correlations, or the broader market sentiment.

Makes me cautiously optimistic.

[TechAnalyst]

Just thinking out loud in the storm,

What happens when the markets realize what keeps us awake at night - that this could seriously limit our ability to grow a normal crop?

Given the lack of fertilizer applied last fall throughout North America and the just in time (or later) systems we've been forced to deal with, it could seriously limit production.

Suppose that's already sneaking into our prices?

By the way, most of corns' issues the last two days are thanks to Goldman Sachs. They advised shorting corn as a hedge against this getting out of control. Suggesting it was the most likely damaged due to feed and ethanol use reductions.

[furrowtickler]

Just thinking out loud in the storm,

What happens when the markets realize what keeps us awake at night - that this could seriously limit our ability to grow a normal crop?

Given the lack of fertilizer applied last fall throughout North America and the just in time (or later) systems we've been forced to deal with, it could seriously limit production.

Suppose that's already sneaking into our prices?

By the way, most of corns' issues the last two days are thanks to Goldman Sachs. They advised shorting corn as a hedge against this getting out of control. Suggesting it was the most likely damaged due to feed and ethanol use reductions.

Lots of calls going out from retailers to get everything on farm ASAP including herbicide.
Might be knee jerk reaction, but things are escalating quickly

[Braveheart]

Local wheat basis strengthening. A good time to lock in basis nearby and start new crop.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Local wheat basis strengthening. A good time to lock in basis nearby and start new crop.

I was expecting it to go the opposite way. I thought speculation in the grain markets due to current events might drive nearby contract prices higher, but logistics and demand would make basis weaken.

[WestwardHO]

Just thinking out loud in the storm,

What happens when the markets realize what keeps us awake at night - that this could seriously limit our ability to grow a normal crop?

Given the lack of fertilizer applied last fall throughout North America and the just in time (or later) systems we've been forced to deal with, it could seriously limit production.

Suppose that's already sneaking into our prices?

By the way, most of corns' issues the last two days are thanks to Goldman Sachs. They advised shorting corn as a hedge against this getting out of control. Suggesting it was the most likely damaged due to feed and ethanol use reductions.

Canadian $$ went from $1.30 to about $1.41 now. That will affect the cost of fertilizer. Then the availability of product once all its the fan. If you didn't buy in the Fall, to store on farm, don't cry about the price next week.

[Crestliner]

46 up $50 per tonne since last week.....matches the dollar decline perfectly. Some of our highest grain prices were when the dollar was above par. Go figure...oil was high so it pulled everything up.

With all this disruption going on I can’t see how grain prices will improve. They were steady to negative before....now thousands thrown out of work and rail transportation (which is 50 % reliable normally)....I think it’s gotta have a negative effect on the farm.
Food Banks and government agencies to bid the highest prices.

The rules of life....prices to go up take weeks or months but can loose it all in a few days.

Just like the bills come in without effort or work, but have to scramble like crazy to get the money in.

Wild oats unchecked over take a crop in one season but will take year to clean it up.

Life really is a series of continual struggle, mixed in with some good breaks to make you keep doing it.

[Oliver88]

I was expecting it to go the opposite way. I thought speculation in the grain markets due to current events might drive nearby contract prices higher, but logistics and demand would make basis weaken.

Thursday and Friday your expectations did come true for wheat.

Futures did increase but basis did weaken and one company widened their protein discount.

[furrowtickler]

Canadian $$ went from $1.30 to about $1.41 now. That will affect the cost of fertilizer. Then the availability of product once all its the fan. If you didn't buy in the Fall, to store on farm, don't cry about the price next week.

If only one had a crystal ball to show a worldwide pandemic starting followed by an oil war between Russia and Saudi ...
Your right , but don’t point fingers at some of those who had the complete inability to buy before now . Throw in two bad harvests, poor grades , some areas with bad frost damage, reduced yields then blockades causing huge delays in grain deliveries before the latest events. Some areas like just north of here have been hit with multiple shit storms beyond their control. Makes buying fertilizer at the perfect time impossible .
Fert prices were still holding flat before this latest set events a month ago when we bought but it looks like that was just luck the way things are going now .
And ya unfortunately any inputs needed for seeding not on farm already or ASAP might be hard to get. Hopefully not but it’s not looking good .