Hmmmm Markets?!

[WestwardHO]

Just thinking out loud in the storm,

What happens when the markets realize what keeps us awake at night - that this could seriously limit our ability to grow a normal crop?

Given the lack of fertilizer applied last fall throughout North America and the just in time (or later) systems we've been forced to deal with, it could seriously limit production.

Suppose that's already sneaking into our prices?

By the way, most of corns' issues the last two days are thanks to Goldman Sachs. They advised shorting corn as a hedge against this getting out of control. Suggesting it was the most likely damaged due to feed and ethanol use reductions.

Canadian $$ went from $1.30 to about $1.41 now. That will affect the cost of fertilizer. Then the availability of product once all its the fan. If you didn't buy in the Fall, to store on farm, don't cry about the price next week.

[Crestliner]

46 up $50 per tonne since last week.....matches the dollar decline perfectly. Some of our highest grain prices were when the dollar was above par. Go figure...oil was high so it pulled everything up.

With all this disruption going on I can’t see how grain prices will improve. They were steady to negative before....now thousands thrown out of work and rail transportation (which is 50 % reliable normally)....I think it’s gotta have a negative effect on the farm.
Food Banks and government agencies to bid the highest prices.

The rules of life....prices to go up take weeks or months but can loose it all in a few days.

Just like the bills come in without effort or work, but have to scramble like crazy to get the money in.

Wild oats unchecked over take a crop in one season but will take year to clean it up.

Life really is a series of continual struggle, mixed in with some good breaks to make you keep doing it.

[Oliver88]

I was expecting it to go the opposite way. I thought speculation in the grain markets due to current events might drive nearby contract prices higher, but logistics and demand would make basis weaken.

Thursday and Friday your expectations did come true for wheat.

Futures did increase but basis did weaken and one company widened their protein discount.

[furrowtickler]

Canadian $$ went from $1.30 to about $1.41 now. That will affect the cost of fertilizer. Then the availability of product once all its the fan. If you didn't buy in the Fall, to store on farm, don't cry about the price next week.

If only one had a crystal ball to show a worldwide pandemic starting followed by an oil war between Russia and Saudi ...
Your right , but don’t point fingers at some of those who had the complete inability to buy before now . Throw in two bad harvests, poor grades , some areas with bad frost damage, reduced yields then blockades causing huge delays in grain deliveries before the latest events. Some areas like just north of here have been hit with multiple shit storms beyond their control. Makes buying fertilizer at the perfect time impossible .
Fert prices were still holding flat before this latest set events a month ago when we bought but it looks like that was just luck the way things are going now .
And ya unfortunately any inputs needed for seeding not on farm already or ASAP might be hard to get. Hopefully not but it’s not looking good .