Math geeks needed

[wd9]

99% of those in Italy had underlying health problems, a full half of them had 3 or more underlying issues. More people over 90 than under 60 died in Italy.

I have that too, am immuno-compromised, guess its ok if i just die as well. Just trying to calculate my odds of living, so humour me. The bigger issue is the collapse of the medical system there, they couldn't save them even if they could.

In Bergamo they have a 48 ventilated bed facility with a 4300 patient caseload in just Covid. Many come in and are just ushered straight to palliative care to die. They can only the save the ones with the highest odds of living, not because the rest can't be medically saved, there is just too many. Remember, just because you have a pandemic, doesn't mean you stop all the other diseases, influenza, heart attacks, pneumonia, cancer, blood disease, leukemia, and a million other things. The deaths would have been far less if they just listened.

This is what is trying to be prevented in Canada.

[shtferbrains]

I try not to watch the world numbers so much because we just get data from the media.

I have been watching VanCong fairly close and to this point most of the dead come out of one nursing home.

Yesterday I think they were reporting 6 long term care homes had infection.

Bigger numbers to come there, but not "general population" picking it up at work.

I think Alberta also reports a long term care case in ICU.

Certainly seniors dying is a crisis, but can we not do better at keeping that group better protected rather than just shotgun the whole population?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I did not see stats on that. Reference?

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

[farming101]

Thanks, I'll have a look.

A good article.
Couple things. The findings were based on 355 out of 2003 cases.

His article might lead the reader to think that it's kind of expected because people with hypertension, diabetes and atrial fibrillation are sick already. These three maladies can be controlled to some extent. People can live with these conditions.

Also he leaves the reader to assume that every one who died in the group were in a hospital and contracted the virus there and then died for other reasons. Huh? I don't think the study revealed any of that info. Maybe I'm missing something

[burnt]

I suppose using numbers from the US would be even more complicated as some would rather almost die before going to the hospital then get stuck with a $50,000 medical bill.

Two indirectly related deaths near here - 1 with appendicitis, 1 with twisted bowel. Both refused to go to hospital for help because of risk of exposure. No reported cases in that city.

Poor choice?

[jazz]

Let me give you some other math. 57M people die every year from all cause mortality across the globe.

Now lets track one horrible portion of it. 4M of those are toddlers under the age of 5. Now imagine I send a news team to every place in the world every time one dies and it gets splashed all over the news and people develop projections on how many will die today and we make a big website to track it all by the second. Horrible of course, but only because you broke out a single variable. Its a cognitive bias.

Now what if I add in the abortions per year, 40M aborted. So just about 45M kids under age of 5 and unborn die every year. Where is the outrage?

We didnt shut down our economy and quarantine toddlers or stop abortion did we? We carry right on and put that tragedy right out of our minds.

I don't like death anymore than anyone else, but I really despise hypocrisy.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I have that too, am immuno-compromised, guess its ok if i just die as well. Just trying to calculate my odds of living, so humour me. The bigger issue is the collapse of the medical system there, they couldn't save them even if they could.

In Bergamo they have a 48 ventilated bed facility with a 4300 patient caseload in just Covid. Many come in and are just ushered straight to palliative care to die. They can only the save the ones with the highest odds of living, not because the rest can't be medically saved, there is just too many. Remember, just because you have a pandemic, doesn't mean you stop all the other diseases, influenza, heart attacks, pneumonia, cancer, blood disease, leukemia, and a million other things. The deaths would have been far less if they just listened.

This is what is trying to be prevented in Canada.

I absolutely respect that. I have a sister in law, young and healthy and mother of 3 in hospital right now with unexplained ( but tested negative for Covid) respiratory issues on oxygen right now. If we were in the midst of an epidemic, where hospitals are overwhelmed, where would she be right now?

[AlbertaFarmer5]

No I don’t think we’ll ever know how many people get it. I know the local health unit here says they have 50-60 probable cases but only 3 have been tested and they don’t seem to be in a hurry to test anyone that doesn’t end up in a hospital. I would think that there are probably 10 people who didn’t get tested for every one that did

Based on the random testing from Iceland, 1% of the population tested positive, and half of those were asymptomatic, and didn't know they were even sick. So we can likely extrapolate those ratios to other parts of the world to estimate the true extent of how many total cases there actually are.

[tubs]

the corona virus is a terrible thing but to shut down whole countries is not the answer. we probably going to loose more people on the side effects of the economy shutdown, more suicide heart attacks domestic violence heart attacks and the like but that does not mean that we should do nothing but a little more measured approach.

[burnt]

Let me give you some other math. 57M people die every year from all cause mortality across the globe.

Now lets track one horrible portion of it. 4M of those are toddlers under the age of 5. Now imagine I send a news team to every place in the world every time one dies and it gets splashed all over the news and people develop projections on how many will die today and we make a big website to track it all by the second. Horrible of course, but only because you broke out a single variable. Its a cognitive bias.

Now what if I add in the abortions per year, 40M aborted. So just about 45M kids under age of 5 and unborn die every year. Where is the outrage?

We didnt shut down our economy and quarantine toddlers or stop abortion did we? We carry right on and put that tragedy right out of our minds.

I don't like death anymore than anyone else, but I really despise hypocrisy.

Disgustingly grotesque, but completely true.

[farming101]

Saskatchewan test results in for today. Positive tests/total tests steady. It's only one day so anything could happen but it could have been worse.

First day I have seen the age breakdown. 82% in the 20-64 age group. A better chance for recovery than if it was more heavily concentrated in the older folks

[AlbertaFarmer5]

wd9, as someone with experience and connections in the medical field, how serious is the mask shortage? I happen to have a couple of boxes of N95 because of grain allergies, and countless ( and in my case, useless, and likely expired) regular masks. Is there a need, or a way to donate these to hospitals, or emergency workers? I assume there will be supplies to replenish my stock eventually, are they accepting, or are supplies on their way already?

[wd9]

I absolutely respect that. I have a sister in law, young and healthy and mother of 3 in hospital right now with unexplained ( but tested negative for Covid) respiratory issues on oxygen right now. If we were in the midst of an epidemic, where hospitals are overwhelmed, where would she be right now?

Really hard to know, the heartbreaking decision would rest in the physician in charge.

Burnt, yes that also, absolutely terrible. I would have thought they made the wrong decision, but wow, so tough.

Jazz, while those are certainly numbers, they aren't that helpful for me. I'll take a different approach then tweety. Here is also a numbers question, if human life is irrelevant (can't believe i just typed that) which has more long term economic damage,

1. complete collapse of the medical system and just let "nature take its course, everybody gets infected". Those who live, live.

2. flatten the curve and relatively quickly have R<1 and maintain critical cases within the capability of the hospital system long term? Canada's strategy.

edit: I should explain R0 or R-Naught. Its the infectious ratio of a particular disease. More people getting over it then getting it is R<1.

[wd9]

wd9, as someone with experience and connections in the medical field, how serious is the mask shortage? I happen to have a couple of boxes of N95 because of grain allergies, and countless ( and in my case, useless, and likely expired) regular masks. Is there a need, or a way to donate these to hospitals, or emergency workers? I assume there will be supplies to replenish my stock eventually, are they accepting, or are supplies on their way already?

You know, i think keep a box for yourself as PPE and your family, passing on a sealed box to the hospital would be a truly wonderful thing to do. They may not need it if things go to plan, but oh if they do. May a 1000 feet deep of good Karma be upon you

As long as not expired of course. Any farmers out there, if you have extra masks in a box unopened, just drop them off by emerg at a distance getting the attention of someone, or phone ahead and make arrangements/discover the need

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Based on the random testing from Iceland, 1% of the population tested positive, and half of those were asymptomatic, and didn't know they were even sick. So we can likely extrapolate those ratios to other parts of the world to estimate the true extent of how many total cases there actually are.

No one responded, so I will answer my own query, if half the infected people who were randomly tested did not know they were even sick, and we are only testing people sick enough to go to the hospital, or in high risk, the prevalence in the general population is likely much much higher than what is reported.
This much larger infected number would make the deaths as a percentage much lower, plus the fact that it takes much longer to be considered recovered than it does to die, so it is a very very trailing indicator.