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Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 vs Germany BBC

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    Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 vs Germany BBC

    In Italy, the death rate from Covid-19 is more than 10 times greater than in Germany. Why does the death rate vary so much internationally?
    BBC
    By Martha Henriques
    1st April 2020


    In Italy, an epicentre of the new coronavirus outbreak, the death rate at the end of March stood at a sobering 11%. Meanwhile in neighbouring Germany, the same virus led to fatality rates of just 1%. In China, it was 4%, while Israel had the lowest rate worldwide, at 0.35%.

    At first it can seem surprising that the same virus – which doesn’t seem to have mutated significantly as it has spread – can lead to such widely differing reported mortality rates. And even within one country, the rate appears to change over time. So what’s going on?

    Several main factors account for much of the difference we’re seeing – and perhaps the most important come down to simply how we’re counting, as well as testing, cases.

    Differing death rates

    First, there is confusion about what people mean by “death rate”. This confusion can make countries’ numbers look vastly different, even if their populations are dying at the same rate.

    There are, in fact, two kinds of fatality rate. The first is the proportion of people who die who have tested positive for the disease. This is called the “case fatality rate”. The second kind is the proportion of people who die after having the infection overall; as many of these will never be picked up, this figure has to be an estimate. This is the “infection fatality rate”.

    In other words, the case fatality rate describes how many people doctors can be sure are killed by the infection, versus how many people the virus kills overall, says Carl Heneghan, an epidemiologist and director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford; he is also a GP in recovery from a suspected Covid-19 infection"

    Canada may well have a much lower death rate than US in the end.

    ALBERTA the Corvid-19 curve gives indication of flattering!
    April 3 Alberta update on Corvid-19-[ one day increase since April 2] from Alberta Health:
    1. April 3 Alberta 61960 tested [4864 more since April 1 (57096)];
    2. 1075 positives [89 more since April 2 (986)];
    3. 18 dead [5 more since April 2 (13)]
    4. 75 Hospitalizations
    5. 24 Admissions to ICU
    6. 62% cases in Calgary
    7. 48% Male
    https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/ give the statistics which are starting to peak for Alberta.
    Last edited by TOM4CWB; Apr 4, 2020, 02:06.

    #2
    Testing is probably the key, but leaders not preparing for a possible 2nd and 3rd wave should be removed and replaced.

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